MCC Official Briefs on Hope for Late 2007 Compact

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ULAANBAATAR 000089 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM, EB/IFD AND EB/TPP USDOC FOR ZHEN-GONG CROSS TREASURY PASS USEDS TO IMF AND WORLD BANK MANILA FOR USED TO ADB LONDON FOR USED TO EBRD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PREL EINV ECON PGOV MG SUBJECT: MCC Official Briefs on Hope for Late 2007 Compact SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Europe, Asia, and Pacific Managing Director Frances Reid visited Ulaanbaatar January 31 to February 3. During her meetings with Prime Minister Enkhbold, Finance Minister Bayarsaikhan, and MCC Mongolia's National Council (NC) and its leader, Financial Secretary Khurlbaatar, Reid: 1) reaffirmed MCC's commitment to do everything possible to complete a compact with Mongolia in 2007, 2) described two Government of Mongolia (GOM) decision options (a few well-developed projects with a compact in 2007 OR further development of more complex projects (the medical diagnostic and treatment center or DTC and vocational education) with a compact in 2008, and, 3)overviewed on-going USG budget realities which suggested funding may not become available until FY-08. She reviewed the status of Mongolia's current project proposals (valued at about US$200 million) in light of the NC's preference for a compact in ¶2007. Reid said the railroad project appears to be generally in good shape with a few key requirements to be met; ditto the property rights. A narrower vocational education project may be possible, but Mongolia's DTC proposal would require extensive additional development which risked delaying a compact until 2008, and MCC declined to fund the information communications technology project, which is complex and appears capable of attracting private funding and development. Reid hoped that due diligence on the remaining Compact elements could be finalized by the end of April, enabling MCC's investment committee and board to review and approve the proposals and, if approved, to submit the compact for Congressional review by late this summer. Although MCC funding in FY07 appears unlikely, the objective is to position Mongolia for signing as soon as funding is available, probably at the beginning of FY08. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) COMMENT: Perhaps reflecting low expectations conveyed by MCC last December, Reid's message that Mongolia had some proposals worthy of pursuing as part of a Compact was generally received with relief and even some joy by those working on or familiar with its long and difficult progress. Some on the NC had feared MCC might totally reject Mongolia's proposals, which represented three years of hard and sometimes politically difficult work. Some remorse is natural given the Mongolians' investment of time and political capital and the demise of some project elements. But for the most part, the GOM and the NC seem eager to press forward to finish the work remaining and conclude its Compact this year. END COMMENT. VISIT MEETING OVERVIEW -------------- ¶3. (U) MCC Europe, Asia, and Pacific Managing Director Frances Reid visited Mongolia January 31 to February 3. During her visit, she met with the Ambassador and Embassy staff and briefed visiting EAP DAS Christensen on the status of Mongolia's proposals and MCC's thinking regarding achieving a compact. In separate sessions, she also met with Ministry of Finance State Secretary Khurelbaatar, who also chairs Mongolia's NC, and NC Secretariat Chief Enkhtuya, a dozen NC members, NC working group chairs, the EBRD's local representative, the Minister of Finance, and the Prime Minister (the latter two meetings are summarized in paras 4 to 9 and 10 to 14 below). FINANCE MINISTER BRIEFED ON PROGRAM MEMO STATUS AND PROSPECTS, USG BUDGET CONCERNS, AND NEXT STEPS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Minister of Finance Bayartsaikhan told Managing Director Reid and the Ambassador February 2 that many Mongolians attached great importance to MCC funding. He stated, for example, that the head of a major local firm was planning to finance the building of a Diagnostic Treatment Center (DTC) but was waiting for information on MCC's health project, which included a DTC, before deciding how to proceed. Bayartsaikhan hoped that an MCC Compact would entice more U.S. firms to come to Mongolia, adding that his Ministry was ready to cooperate with MCC and the Mongolian NC to achieve a Compact in ¶2007. He said he was concerned about the U.S. Congress's failure to ULAANBAATA 00000089 002 OF 004 pass a budget this year and how it might affect Mongolia's chances for a Compact. ¶5. (SBU) Director Reid said that she had traveled to Mongolia to update government officials on where Mongolia currently stood vis-`-vis a Compact and the Compact's future direction as well as to discuss next steps on how to come to closure on the Compact. She praised the work of FinSec Khurelbaatar, the NC's Chairman, and Ms. Enkhtuya, noting somewhat diplomatically that she had been impressed with the hard work and effort coming from the NC and the working groups in relation to Compact development. Reid gave a brief explanation of the budgetary situation in the U.S., said that MCC could not say how much funding it might receive this year given the Continuing Resolution situation, and that it was unlikely Mongolia would be able to receive any money that could be put to a Compact in FY07. But she was hopeful that FY08 (explaining FY08 begins in October 2007) would see a significant allocation of funds from Congress that could allow MCC to fund a Compact with Mongolia. She stressed that although MCC was a Bush Administration initiative, it had enjoyed broad bipartisan support in Congress. ¶6. (SBU) Mongolia's Compact development, Reid went on to say, was more advanced than roughly half of the 11 countries currently competing for Compact monies, and was on par or slightly behind the rest. Reid said she hoped to see Mongolia's Compact proposal receive MCC Board approval this summer, placing it "towards the front of the line" when MCC funding finally opened up with the start of the new fiscal year on October 1st. She and the NC, she said, had agreed during their February 1 meeting that the best way to move forward would be to look at which projects were best developed now and could be ready (i.e., have primary due diligence and structuring completed) by the end of April, the latest date possible for a summer approval deadline. She said that both sides had agreed to focus on the railway project, property rights (possibly with a peri-urban leasing component),some aspects of the health proposal (mainly centered on prevention) and a much-reduced version of the Vocational Education project that could build on, but not copy, a similar program currently being implemented through the ADB. She stressed that MCC fully understood Mongolia's need for a DTC and considered it to be a worthy project, but that experiences in other countries showed that it did not make sense given the current state of Mongolia's health system without substantial additional work and integration into a much broader health initiative. She told the Minister that MCC had recently submitted legislation that would allow for the implementation of a simultaneous, second Compact with one country, although she emphasized that it was not clear that such a possibility would be approved by Congress, and suggested - with no promises - that perhaps a more fully developed health project could be the basis for such a second Compact. She sought the Minister's assistance in ensuring that development of the current Compact proposal would continue, that adequate funding for experts would be maintained, and that government organizations would be encouraged to allow their employees to continue devoting time to the development of proposals. ¶7. (SBU) Reid concluded that she and FinSec Khurlbaatar were "riding on the same horse towards a successful Compact with Mongolia." She would work closely with him, through email, telephone and digital video conferencing, over the next few months to keep Compact development on course. Reid estimated Mongolia's final Compact, as currently envisioned, could come to about US$200 million, although she could not give an exact figure just yet. ¶8. (SBU) Minister Bayartsaikhan said he was ready to support her and the NC's efforts with funding. He questioned the development of what he understood to be new projects at this stage (health-prevention and vocational education). Reid clarified that these were not really new projects but rather aspects of current projects upon which most work had already been done. The Minister said he was comfortable with MCC's strategy, but felt talk of a second Compact now was premature. The Ambassador expressed appreciation to all those who had participated in this new and complicated process, stressing that political commitment to the MCC project had remained constant. He pointed out that MCC's ULAANBAATA 00000089 003 OF 004 Chairperson, Secretary of State Rice, had stated in a letter to Mongolia's Foreign Minister just the previous week, that she was "looking forward to completing a Compact with Mongolia in 2007" The commitment from the U.S. side, the Ambassador emphasized, was very strong. ¶9. (SBU) The Minister of Finance concluded the meeting stating that completion of an MCC Compact was not about how much money Mongolia would receive. He said that failure to achieve the Compact could damage the reputation of the Government of Mongolia and that completion of a Compact would represent the expansion of the U.S. - Mongolia relationship. NEED TO FINISH THE COMPACT, PM SAYS -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Managing Director Reid, accompanied by the Ambassador, called on Prime Minister Enkhbold late on the afternoon of Feb 2 to provide with an update on Mongolia's progress towards an MCC Compact. Her briefing paralleled that provided to the Finance Minister (see para's 4-9 above). She explained the current budget situation in the U.S., saying that Congress's implementation of a continuing resolution throughout FY07 meant MCC's funding was in question. She expected that sufficient funding for MCC would be allocated in October 2007, the beginning of FY08, and said her objective in working with Mongolia was to ensure that Mongolia would have a Compact already approved by end summer 2007 and ready for signing once funds become available in October. She said many countries were working towards a Compact with MCC but that she hoped Mongolia would arrive at the "front of the line." To do this, MCC and Mongolia's NC would have to focus on those projects that could be made ready by the end of April, the latest deadline for a summer 2007 approval target date. ¶11. (SBU) Reid explained that MCC and the National Council had decided to pursue the railway project, property rights project, some aspects of the health project, a revamped version of the vocational education project, and (subject to viability) possibly a peri-urban leasing and agribusiness project. She explained that a Compact could not be signed until MCC had in hand all funds required for the entirety of Mongolia's proposal. Most due diligence and design work had been completed on the various projects but some work remained. She stated that she was committed to working with the NC to see that every effort was made to complete all work required for Compact presentation by the end of April. Reid asked the PM for his government's assistance in wrapping up these loose ends, noting particularly that "we need to make sure that all parties involved in the anchor rail project are aware of the project and are willing to support it" (Note: This refers to the GOM's need to gain Russian cooperation as part of the joint Mongolian-Russian rail company.) Reid praised the NC's work. ¶12. (SBU) Prime Minister Enkhbold welcomed Reid back to Mongolia, saying he hoped she would bring good news. He said understood the political shift in Washington but hoped that MCC's budget would be approved soon. He went on to say that Mongolia had worked on a Compact since 2004 and that meetings with the Ambassador upon his arrival at post last September had lead him to believe that a Compact could be reached in early 2007. Now, the PM said, Mongolia would have to wait until the end of 2007. He said he recognized that this delay was not Mongolia's fault, stressing that for him the most important point was to complete the Compact and get the MCC investment process started. ¶13. (SBU) PM Enkhbold said that the Mongolian people had placed great hope in the MCC and were waiting eagerly for it to begin lest the Mongolian people start to lose confidence. But if the Compact could be implemented in good time, it would signify a deepening of U.S. - Mongolian relations, he said. It was also important for Mongolia's relations with its neighbors in the region. In 2005 President Bush had called Mongolia its "third neighbor" and, as a symbol of this neighborly relationship, implementation of the MCC Compact would help Mongolia improve its relations with its geographic neighbors. ULAANBAATA 00000089 004 OF 004 ¶14. (SBU) The Ambassador noted that MCC was a completely new way to do things, and political commitment to the project had remained constant. He referred to Secretary and MCC Chairperson Rice's letter to the Foreign Minister in which she stated she was "looking forward to completing a Compact with Mongolia in 2007" The commitment from the U.S. side, the Ambassador emphasized, was very strong. The U.S. budget has been frozen for everything, he said, including MCC, something PM Enkhbold, as head of government, could certainly understand and empathize with. MINTON