MONGOLIA'S NEW CABINET: THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 08 ULAANBAATAR 000703 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM, INR/EAP, INR/B AND DRL STATE PASS TO DEPT OF AGRICULTURE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2017 TAGS: PREL MARR ECON SENV KCOR SOCI PGOV MG SUBJECT: MONGOLIA'S NEW CABINET: THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY REF: A. ULAANBAATAR 674 ¶B. ULAANBAATAR 680 ¶C. ULAANBAATAR 688 ¶D. ULAANBAATAR 698 Classified By: Ambassador Mark C. Minton for Reason 1.4(d). ¶1. (S) This cable provides analysis of the new 16-member Cabinet of Mongolian Prime Minister S.Bayar and identifies the Ministers' strengths, weaknesses, likely objectives and challenges. A separate cable will follow on the balance of power in Parliament and political parties' prospects for success in the June 2008 Parliamentary elections. ¶2. (S) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Mongolian Prime Minister S.Bayar has assembled a 16-member Cabinet that strikes a balance between political necessity and the need to ensure that ministries are competently led. Given the abysmal approval rating of the ruling and dominant Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP),if the MPRP is to approach the elections with any confidence, Bayar will have to look to his Cabinet to produce tangible, public-pleasing achievements in the coming months. We see the Cabinet as a pragmatic and nimble group, a mixture of proven technocrats and experienced hands. We are heartened to see S.Oyun, a frank and pro-U.S. leader, become Foreign Minister. The Cabinet has its share of old-school MPRP politicians, but even they could be described as capable. We also see a Cabinet filled with Russophiles; 14 of the 16 Cabinet Ministers either studied in Russia, attended a Russian school in Mongolia, or have a Russian parent. Two served as Ambassador to Russia. One foreign businessman, long resident in Ulaanbaatar, summed up his impression of the new Cabinet by saying, "Intelligent conversations are being held for the first time in four years." END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. ¶3. (S) Prime Minister Bayar has assembled a 16-member Cabinet that balances political necessity and ministerial competence. (Full unclassified bio sketches were emailed to EAP/CM.) Bayar's coalition "National Unity" Government consists of officials from only three parties -- Bayar's MPRP, the Civil Will Party and the New National Party. (The key opposition Democratic Party apparently likes its chances in the June 2008 elections and rejected Bayar's offers to join the coalition.) Given the MPRP's abysmal approval rating of 
late, if the MPRP is to approach the elections with any confidence, Bayar will have to look to his Cabinet to produce tangible, public-pleasing achievements in the coming months. He has staked his Government's future on two goals: stabilizing prices for key foodstuffs and fuel, and concluding an investment agreement for the lucrative Oyu Tolgoi deposit. Oyu Tolgoi, which by the GOM's calculation holds 71 billion ounces of copper and 31 million ounces of gold, has been a subject of impassioned and prolonged debate, and stop-start negotiations are entering their fourth year. As time passes without an approved investment agreement for Oyu Tolgoi, Mongolia remains a poor and underdeveloped country, with less than 1,000 miles of paved road, GDP per capita of $1,036 per year (2006 est.),and nowhere near the financial, technical, or organizational capacity needed to develop Oyu Tolgoi or other deposits on its own. Enter the Bayar Cabinet... ¶4. (S) We view the Cabinet as a pragmatic and nimble group of ULAANBAATA 00000703 002 OF 008 technocrats, including Health Minister Batsereeden and Trade/Industry's Narankhuu, and experienced hands, such as former PM M.Enkhbold (now DPM) and Fuel/Energy's Khurelbaatar (former Finance Secretary, MCC Compact and Oyu Tolgoi negotiator). We are heartened to see S.Oyun, a frank and pro-U.S. leader, become Foreign Minister, and encouraged that the Justice Ministry is now under the control of Ts.Munkh-Orgil, a competent jurist with generally strong ties SIPDIS to the Embassy, though he has been a drag on some issues such as trafficking in persons and corruption legislation. The Cabinet has its share of old-school MPRP operatives - Finance Minister Ch.Ulaan comes to mind, as does Labor's D.Demberel - but even they could be described as capable and pragmatic. One foreign businessman, long resident in Ulaanbaatar, summed up his overall impression of the new Cabinet by saying, "Intelligent conversations are being held for the first time in four years." RUSSOPHILES -------------- ¶5. (S) As might be expected for a nation that was dominated by the Soviet Union for 70 years until the early 1990s, we also see a Cabinet filled with Russophiles; 14 of the 16 Cabinet Ministers either studied in Russia, attended a Russian school in Mongolia, or have a Russian parent. Two served as Ambassador to Russia. The Russians have been very active in engaging the new Government on economic cooperation. This was seen in the December 7-8 Mongolian-Russian business forum, attended by delegations from both governments and more than 200 companies, including Russian mining firms. The forum was opened by President Enkhbayar and attended by many Mongolian MPs, and the Russian delegation was led by a close aide to President Putin. On December 18, the Deputy Mayor of Moscow met in Ulaanbaatar with PM Bayar and called for economic and other cooperation. The Russian official agreed to Bayar's proposal that a Russian cultural center be set up in Ulaanbaatar. The Russian also asked for Mongolian support for Moscow to host the 2010 Junior Olympics. TALKING THE TALK -------------- ¶6. (U) Bayar delivered a pro-mining message in a December 13 speech: "Everyone sees that Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi projects are both stalled. One of the Government's core responsibilities is to resolve this stalemate position and tap the wealth in a short period of time so that rapid development will follow." Bayar has also pledged action against corruption. (Note: On December 18, police allegedly arrested National Emergency Management Agency head Gen. Dash for suspected corruption related to trading in disaster-relief materials. Assistants to Gen. Dash denied that he had been arrested, saying he had merely been questioned. It is not clear whether he is currently in custody. End Note.) INITIAL CABINET ACTIONS -------------- ¶7. (S) But what has the Cabinet actually done so far? At one of its first meetings, on December 15, the Cabinet reportedly reached a number of initial decisions, many ULAANBAATA 00000703 003 OF 008 related to stabilizing prices for basic necessities: -- Meat: The Mongolian Government (GOM) will order, from 13 Mongolian meat producers, 7,000 tons of meat (probably mostly mutton and beef). It was unclear when the additional supply would reach the market; probably spring. -- Flour, Wheat: The GOM will order (and has already signed agreements to buy) 15,000 tons of Russian flour and 85,000 tons of Russian wheat. The GOM also decided to buy seed for 6,000 tons of wheat, which is to be distributed cheaply to farmers. -- Gasoline: Starting on January 15, the GOM will absorb and offset any new price increases experienced by Mongolian gasoline importers, in order to prevent any further gas hikes for consumers. 50 PERCENT OF ASGAT DEPOSIT -------------- ¶8. (S) The Cabinet also decided that the GOM would own 50 percent of the Asgat silver and lead deposit in the western province of Bayan Ulgii. The Cabinet agreed that it would submit a proposal to this effect to Parliament. (Under the 2006 amended Minerals Law, Asgat was declared a strategic deposit, which the GOM could claim 50 percent of as the exploration of the deposit was made with state funds.) ¶9. (S) In a gesture toward transparency, the Cabinet agreed that an "Open Government Day" would be held once a month at rotating ministries. The Cabinet reiterated the ban on government workers drinking during work hours, adding that it would not hesitate to terminate those involved. CABINET MINISTERS: THE GOOD, BAD AND UGLY -------------- ¶10. (S) Following are sketches of the 15 ministers who work for Bayar, with information on their strengths, weaknesses, likely objectives and challenges. DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: M.ENKHBOLD -------------- ¶11. (S) Humbled after the loss of his MPRP chairmanship and then his job as PM, Enkhbold is nevertheless a survivor, remaining in the GOM as the Cabinet's second-highest-ranking official (and maintaining Parliamentary immunity from prosecution for corruption). Enkhbold need look no further than out any window to view the legacy of his years as UB mayor and governor - dozens of construction projects, many on land formerly owned by the state and reportedly sold off at "preferential" prices. At a plenary on December 5, Enkhbold defended himself against corruption accusations by pointing out that no court had ever convicted him. It is unclear whether PM Bayar will invest Enkhbold with actual power; critics claimed that his inclusion in the Cabinet was merely aimed at keeping Enkhbold, and by extension, the MPRP, from looking dirty ahead of June 2008 Parliamentary elections. CHIEF OF GOVERNMENT SECRETARIAT: N.ENKHBOLD -------------- ULAANBAATA 00000703 004 OF 008 ¶12. (S) The former Foreign Minister, known for his deft touch with the media, had a rough ride in Parliamentary approval proceedings, at the hands of a few detractors, such as Republican populist Jargalsaikhan. Enkhbold's key responsibility will be to enforce Cabinet discipline, although Bayar, with his hands-on management style, will also work to keep the entire Cabinet united on policy matters. Enkhbold will have the support of his boss to crack down on bureaucratic extravagance. Enkhbold will implement cuts in the number of vehicles available to Ministry employees and take steps to force public servants to eschew gas-guzzling SUVs in favor of more fuel-efficient sedans. FOREIGN MINISTER: S.OYUN -------------- ¶13. (S) One of three women in the Bayar Cabinet (along with Education's Bolormaa and Health's Batsereeden),Oyun reluctantly entered politics nearly a decade ago after the murder of her older brother Zorig, the leader of Mongolia's democratic movement. (Her excellent English skills helped the movement make itself known to foreign audiences.) Respected by foreign diplomats and celebrated by the human rights community, Oyun is a straight-shooting pragmatist who believes in multilateralism and has long maintained close ties to the Embassy. For a time, she worked for mining giant Rio Tinto, and knows that Mongolia must develop its mineral resources and that the international community must play a role in this development. She was also an active member of Mongolia's Millennium Challenge Account National Council. Oyun was criticized for joining the Bayar Government, but she apparently concluded that her Civil Will Party could accomplish more inside the Government than out. She has shown a willingness to crack down on cronyism that has resulted in unqualified individuals being given jobs at Mongolian diplomatic missions; she has also been a strong opponent of corruption and was a driving force behind Mongolia's acceptance of the UN Convention Against Corruption in November 2005. She has also made a goal of increasing GOM service for Mongolians overseas. Her pro-U.S. views and commitment to human rights auger well for bilateral cooperation and the promotion of American interests. DEFENSE MINISTER: J.BATKHUYAG -------------- ¶14. (S) A 43-year-old economist with no military experience, Batkhuyag is one of only two Cabinet ministers from the New National Party (the other is Construction's Tsolmon). Largely pleased with the current state of US-Mongolian relations, he is unlikely to initiate or implement any major policy or staffing changes. The English-speaking Batkhuyag has so far avoided removing or reassigning any staff officers, nor has he made any political appointments, military or civilian. Compared with his hands-off predecessor (who critics labeled as corrupt),Batkhuyag might involve himself more deeply in ministry finances, including those related to bilateral military programs. Top GOM military decisions, including on whether to send a ninth rotation to Iraq, will be made above Batkhuyag's level. FINANCE MINISTER: CH.ULAAN -------------- ULAANBAATA 00000703 005 OF 008 ¶15. (S) This is Ulaan's second stint as Finance Minister. An old-school politician and MPRP operative, he is not known for his openness to criticism. After former GOM spokesman N.Demberel said in a February interview that Ulaan was "merely a puppet" with "no personal opinions," Ulaan accused him of slander. (In a decision that upset many free-speech advocates, a UB court sided with Ulaan in August, finding Demberel guilty and sentencing him to jail.) That said, Ulaan is viewed as knowledgeable, dedicated and reliable. He has told us he strongly desires engagement on the Millennium Challenge Corp (MCC) Compact for Mongolia. The new Finance Minister, a longtime public servant, apparently has robust personal finances. His name is closely associated with Tsairt Minerals, a Mongolian-Chinese joint venture operating SIPDIS the lucrative Tumrtiin Ovoo zinc mine. He is also alleged to have benefited from links to the Customs service. Ulaan will play a role in shaping whether the GOM recommends further changes to Mongolia's Minerals Law, which could negatively impact the attractiveness of Mongolia's investment climate. He will also influence whether an investment agreement is approved to allow wide-scale development of Oyu Tolgoi. JUSTICE AND HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER: TS.MUNKH-ORGIL -------------- -------------- ¶16. (S) Formerly Chairman of the Legislative Standing Committee (and before that, Foreign Minister),Munkh-Orgil is closely affiliated with President N.Enkhbayar. An attorney who studied law at Harvard, Munkh-Orgil will appoint a new chief for the Anti Corruption Agency (whose leader died on a recent visit to Australia). Our sources indicate that Munkh-Orgil might become PM Bayar's point-person on the emotionally charged issue of Chinese immigration. Many Mongolians, including Cabinet ministers, are alarmed by what they see as an influx of Chinese citizens. (Said one high-level advisor: "Many Chinese are coming, and we don't even know how many are here.") When he served as Deputy Justice Minister, Munkh-Orgil was resistant to calls for greater transparency, telling one EmbOff, "You're trying to push your values on us." Nevertheless, contact between Munkh-Orgil and the Embassy have long been close. (He heads the Mongolian Basketball Association; the amateur team on which he plays recently lost to our Embassy team.) Among the legislative issues that Munkh-Orgil might weigh in on are draft laws on state secrets and freedom of information. He told us in August that in his view, the United States ranks tied for 5th (with Germany) in overall importance to Mongolia, trailing China, Russia, Korea and Japan. TRADE AND INDUSTRY MINISTER: H.NARANKHUU -------------- ¶17. (S) Supporters say Narankhuu knows mining inside out, having spent the past seven years as General Director of Erdenet Mining Corp and worked previously as a Vice Minister. Critics say Narankhuu was merely in the right place at the right time; that during his time at Erdenet, the soaring price of copper left him looking capable. Either way, it remains to be seen how much of a say he will have in shaping whether an Oyu Tolgoi deal is approved. A former diplomat who served in Washington, Narankhuu's diplomatic skills will be put to the test on the Oyu Tolgoi issue. His ability lies in balancing competing interests. Ideally, Narankhuu will bring a measure of sanity to the GOM's ambiguous mining ULAANBAATA 00000703 006 OF 008 policy, which the GOM alters at whim, based on prevailing political or populist sentiment and on what changes can be linked to investment practices overseas. The mining industry - Mongolians and foreigners alike - respects Narankhuu and is optimistic. Like Finance Minister Ulaan, Narankhuu could play a role in influencing whether the GOM seeks changes to the Mining Law. LABOR AND SOCIAL WELFARE MINISTER: D.DEMBEREL -------------- ¶18. (S) The only member of the previous Cabinet to keep his portfolio, Demberel was a high-ranking MPRP member back in the party's communist heyday. He has already taken steps to maintain the status quo. (On December 17, when reporters asked him whether investigators would be allowed to search the homes, offices and cars of Parliamentarians suspected of gambling away millions of dollars in state funds, Demberel downplayed the matter, saying the MPRP would discuss it internally.) Demberel will move to reduce business tax loads by 10 percent per employee salary - a key request of Mongolian business. He might also address amendments to the law on labor safety and hygiene, which Parliament is to consider during the current session. EDUCATION, CULTURE AND SCIENCE MINISTER: N.BOLORMAA -------------- -------------- ¶19. (S) Fond of sable and lynx coats, Bolormaa has pledged to work for universities to be set up in remote areas. She was almost certainly gifted her job by Bayar for having stood up at an MPRP Congress and accused then-MPRP chief M.Enkhbold of corruption. (In a vote that followed, Enkhbold lost the MPRP chairmanship to Bayar, and then the Prime Ministership.) Despite her finger-wagging in Enkhbold's direction, there is no shortage of accusations that Bolormaa enriched herself through work in the UB city government. Her critics point out that as Education Minister, with power to greatly influence which Mongolians receive scholarships, Bolormaa will have further opportunities to feed at the public trough. Her supporters, however, point to her four years as head of the Mongolian Center for Children's Rights and say this will result in greater attention being paid to children's problems (including child abandonment and the fact that some children do not attend school because of economic reasons). HEALTH MINISTER: B.BATSEREEDEN -------------- ¶20. (S) A doctor and technocrat with much experience in Mongolia's health sector, Batsereeden has already informed us of her interest in working with us on the MCC Compact's (relatively small) health component. Having already worked at the Health Ministry for more than 18 months (as State Secretary),she has the connections and understanding SIPDIS necessary to mobilize her Ministry for fast action. However, PM Bayar has not identified any health issues as top priorities. Batsereeden is expected to try to make the health system less bureaucratic, emphasize inexpensive prevention methods rather than expensive treatments, and improve the quality of hospital food - a popular complaint. AGRICULTURE MINISTER: TS.GANKHUYAG -------------- ULAANBAATA 00000703 007 OF 008 ¶21. (S) Although Gankhuyag is considered "clean," the same cannot be said for his Ministry. The lucrative, corruption-prone portfolio has been beefed up by the Cabinet's decision to order significant quantities of meat, flour and wheat. Gankhuyag will have to keep his coworkers' hands out of the cookie jar, ensure a stable and affordable food supply and address livestock diseases. (Equine flu has killed at least 16,000 horses.) CONSTRUCTION MINISTER: TS.TSOLMON -------------- ¶22. (S) Like Bayar, Tsolmon is a former Ambassador to Russia (and before that, Bulgaria). A Russian-educated engineer who worked for UNESCO in the mid-1990s, Tsolmon has pledged to improve the quality of new buildings. His portfolio is not among the heavyweights, but presents myriad opportunities for personal enrichment. Tsolmon will pay close attention to Parliament's consideration of a resolution on the creation of jobs in the construction sector. He will also have to address the issue of recent raids on construction sites, where many Chinese laborers were rounded up and subsequently deported. TRANSPORTATION MINISTER: R.RASH -------------- ¶23. (S) Rash formerly served as Director of the Mongolian Railway (jointly owned with Russia). Government opponents have pressed him on what he will do regarding rail safety, traffic congestion, rising transport/fuel costs and "sweetheart deals" posing as Ministry-organized tenders. Rash said he would sharply increase rail-safety spending. He expressed concern over the insider deals but rather than outline any steps against this practice, he blamed the former administration's "poor planning." Rash indicated that he might try to get a proper tarmac established at the main airport in Bayan Ulgii. (Note: MP Gundalai, People's Party chief, has been calling for the establishment of an international airport in northern Khovsgol province, and for a moratorium on new mining projects there. End Note.) FUEL AND ENERGY MINISTER: CH.KHURELBAATAR -------------- ¶24. (S) PM Bayar has made a priority of preventing further consumer price increases for gasoline. Khurelbaatar, who has been dogged by rumors that he enriched himself in previous positions, has indicated that he will direct his Ministry to review plans for an expensive hydroelectric plant on the Eg River, which is showing signs of drying up. On rural electrification, Khurelbaatar has said his Ministry will distribute more than 40,000 solar panels to herder families next year, to generate electricity. (Quoting Finance Ministry statistics, he said that 15,000 herder families had already received such panels.) He has expressed interest in USAID-funded analytical technical assistance to address energy policies. ENVIRONMENT MINISTER: G.SHIILEGDAMBA -------------- ULAANBAATA 00000703 008 OF 008 ¶25. (S) Just 32 years old, Shiilegdamba is a tourism expert whose experience, Bayar hopes, will help Mongolia attract more ecotourists. But first, Shiilegdamba will have to answer domestic questions about what the GOM is doing on air pollution, overfishing and environmental damage from irresponsible artisanal and small-scale gold mining. On air quality, Shiilegdamba has pledged to coordinate efforts by national and city governments. He has also promised action on poaching, water quality/supply and forest protection. He has said nothing publicly about gold mining or overfishing, but PM Bayar stated on December 12 that his Government would address both issues head-on. The Environment portfolio may seem rather unimportant, but the ministry gives its chop on environmental impact assessments for a variety of business and GOM projects (including mining ventures). This permission is necessary for the issuance of operating permits, providing a significant rent-seeking opportunity for bureaucrats and ministers. MINTON