MONGOLIANS BELIEVE CLIMATE CHANGE WREAKS HAVOC ON MONGOLIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ULAANBAATAR 000679 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM and OES STATE PASS USTR FOR WINELAND JAKARTA PLEASE PASS TO BALI CLIMATE CHANGE USDEL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV ENRG ECON PREL MG SUBJECT: MONGOLIANS BELIEVE CLIMATE CHANGE WREAKS HAVOC ON MONGOLIA ULAANBAATA 00000679 001.2 OF 004 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Far from being a theoretical problem, climate change is battering Mongolia's environment and eco-systems, with consequences far beyond its own borders. This is a commonly held view nation-wide and across the social, economic and political spectrum -- from the President to nomadic herders in the countryside. Mongolian and international scientists and Mongolian citizens report its rivers and lakes are drying up. Sand is being blown as far away as Nevada, according to press reports. Pastureland and plant species are disappearing; in the eastern provinces, violence has erupted among herders fighting over choice pastureland. Rising temperatures have resulted in such extreme weather fluctuations which have yielded prolonged droughts and harsher winters. Dwindling water resources and consequent desertification directly threaten the country's economic heart - the herding and agricultural sectors. Windswept dust from the expanding Gobi desert has increased respiratory distress worldwide, according to some reports. The Government of Mongolia (GOM) has acceded to numerous treaties and protocols on curbing global warming and has engaged the international donor communities on several projects to improve water resource management and stem the tide of desertification. But more commitment, financing and capacity building will be needed if GOM efforts in these areas are to prove effective. END SUMMARY MONGOLIA IS HEATING UP AND DRYING OUT -------------- ¶2. (U) Scientists have determined that, over the last decade, average temperatures in Mongolia rose to their highest point in the past millennium. Corresponding to global trends, 1998 was the warmest year ever measured in Mongolia. Over the last 60 years Mongolia has registered an average annual increase of 1.66 degrees Celsius (2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in air temperature, with a recognizable warming trend beginning in the 1970's and intensifying towards the end of the 1980's. The warming trend has been most pronounced in winter, with a mean temperature increase of 3.61 degrees Celsius (or 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit),according to Mongolian records. The average duration of heat waves has increased by 8-18 days while the duration of cold fronts is clearly decreasing. Scientists speculate that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have a more exaggerated effect on the climate because Mongolia is a landlocked, high-altitude country. CAUSE FOR CONCERN -------------- ¶3. (U) Mongolian scientists say they have a reason to be concerned. The vast majority of the population depends on livestock and other climate-dependent sectors. Animal husbandry employs 48% of the population (about 1.4 million Mongolians),produces 35% of the nation's agricultural gross production (US$660 million),and accounts for 30% of the country's exports. Scientists say a changing climate decimates pasture, threatening forage yields, livestock productivity, and, ultimately, local and national food production capacity. Intensified droughts and severe winters are inflicting serious damage, not only on the livestock sector, but also on the national economy. RADICAL WEATHER CHANGES -------------- ¶4. (U) Although it may seem contradictory that warming conditions ULAANBAATA 00000679 002.2 OF 004 produce harsher winters, in this case harsher means that stormier, windier, dustier conditions (typical of a Mongolian spring) predominate. A day can start off sunny and mild at 60 F and end with a howling, dusty wind-chill of 15 F. Mongolian springs, currently stretching from late March through May, are feared by herders because the intense fluctuations stress their animals at end of winter, just when the animals are at their weakest. Sudden winter warming spells often result in higher than normal snowfall, surge snows and wind storms that have decimated livestock. Melted snow from winter warming spells does not seep into the ground but rather create ice sheets that prevent animals from reaching their food sources. Summer droughts and corresponding harsh winters, or "dzuds" ("white when there's too much snow and "black" when there's too little; both tend to cause substantial herd losses of 20-30%), in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002 affected 50-70% of Mongolian territory and led to the death of over 10 million animals. RIVERS, LAKES DRYING UP -------------- ¶5. (U) Droughts initiated by climate change have resulted in decreased levels of surface water resources. Reduced glacial runoff has lowered lake levels and river flows in western Mongolia, scientists say. A 2003-2006 inventory of surface water resources showed a massive decrease and a potential permanent loss of natural water resources (rivers, lakes, ponds and wells). Some 3,000 water sources have dried up, including 680 rivers and 760 lakes. (COMMENT: The now largely dry river bed adjacent to the Chancery used to flow deep and continuously and was the childhood swimming hole for the President's Foreign Policy Advisor, for example.) The water table is falling in arid regions, and degradation and desertification of land cover, due to a shortage of water and precipitation, has intensified. Studies have recorded increases in evaporation and plant evapo-transpiration, as well as decreases in soil moisture, due to rising temperatures. These changes contribute to reduction in plant cover that serves as a natural ground insulator. The resulting loss of insulation increases surface soil temperatures that lead to further evaporation and soil moisture loss. Warming temperatures are also eroding the underground permafrost, which is another valuable source of water for plant life. PASTURELAND, PLANT SPECIES DISAPPERARING -------------- ¶6. (U) Along with overgrazing and deforestation, soil- moisture loss is one of the factors contributing to the country's growing desertification, scientists report. Roughly 40% of Mongolia's territory currently consists of arid or desert terrain, and scientists estimate some 70-80% of the country is vulnerable to desertification. They estimate that 70% of Mongolia's pastureland has been degraded and depleted, vegetation growth rate has already decreased five times, and the number of plant species has reduced six fold. As pastureland has decreased by 6.9 million hectors during the last 30 years, the yield from severely degraded pasture has decreased five fold. SAND BLOWN AS FAR AWAY AS NEVADA -------------- ¶7. (U) Increased desertification has created severe dust and sandstorms, known in some parts as the "Yellow Sand" phenomenon, that have swept across Mongolia and 18 provinces of China, as well as the Korean peninsula and a large part of Japan, according to press reports. These sands have blown clear to the United States; a ULAANBAATA 00000679 003.2 OF 004 recent report regarding pollution in the state of Nevada noted that the high levels of arsenic in the atmosphere originated from this region. Dust and sandstorms are serious trans-boundary environmental issues in northeast Asia, impacting the health of millions of people across a large swath of the Northern Hemisphere. It results in decreased visibility, as well as eye and respiratory problems. GOM EFFORTS TO PROTECT ENVIRONMENT -------------- ¶8. (U) The GOM works unilaterally and multilaterally on environmental protection. Mongolia joined the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and in 1999 implemented its national program on protection of the Ozone Layer (with assistance from the UN Environment Program). Mongolia also took part in the "Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction from Industry in Asia and the Pacific" project, which was implemented in nine countries by UNEP. Mongolia acceded to the Montreal Protocol (on substances that deplete the ozone layer) in 1996 and to the Stockholm Convention (on reduction of persistent organic pollutants) in 2004. Mongolia ratified the Kyoto Treaty on Climate Change in 1999. FIGHTING DESERTIFICATION -------------- ¶9. (U) The GOM developed a National Program for Combating Desertification (NPCD) and set up a National Committee for Combating Desertification (NCCD),but personnel, resource and , financing limitations hinder the committee's activities. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) has proposed to contribute to a more effective implementation of the NPCD in alignment with Mongolia's policies and action plans. The SDC project aims to support the NCCD's objectives of improving the effectiveness of national and international efforts on combating desertification and promoting sustainable livelihoods in arid and semi-arid areas. The NCCD has a government mandate for coordination and alignment. However, its capacity is weak and activities related to desertification are isolated and often lack a coherent, long-term perspective. Additionally, no entity currently conducts standardized monitoring of programs on desertification. Nor is there a coordinating agency to share lessons learned or best practices. WATER MANAGEMENT -------------- 10.(U) Faced with dwindling water resources, the GOM declared 2004 as the "National Year of Water," and passed new legislation on water management. The "Johannesburg Goal" of setting up a national plan for an Integrated Water Resource Management was a key element. Furthermore, the Government of the Netherlands will soon implement a five-year project titled "Water Resources United Management." Under the project, US$9.3 million will be spent on the improvement of subsoil water supplies, water preservation, and the improvement of water supplies of settlement areas. U.PENN TEAM TO LAKE HOVSGOL -------------- 11.(U) A team of ecologists and evolutionary biologists from the University of Pennsylvania received a five-year, $2.5-million National Science Foundation grant to examine the ecological and societal consequences of increased grazing and rising temperatures ULAANBAATA 00000679 004.2 OF 004 in the Lake Hovsgol region of northern Mongolia. The goal is to understand how this region will respond to further global warming and to inform GOM policy being prepared on land preservation and management. The project focuses on understanding the effects of grazing and climate change in a region used by nomadic herders and home to two important ecosystems, the taiga forest and steppe grasslands. US scientists will also run educational workshops on ecology, evolutionary biology and statistics, all underrepresented in the Mongolian curriculum. NEWS NOT ALL BAD -------------- 12.(U) Ironically for Mongolia, the news may not be all bad. Some scientists and economists have speculated that, along with other northern countries, Mongolia could benefit to the tune of a 6.5% increase in GDP if global warming predictions pan out, thanks mostly to reduced expenditures on fossil fuels for heating; increased tourism (international tourism to Mongolia could jump 122% by the end of the century as the country becomes warmer) and projected gains in agricultural production because of longer growing seasons and more accommodating climates. (Researchers believe that if the world warms up, the sweet spots for growing crops will migrate northward. The more likely scenario, however, is that any gains from warming temperatures will be offset by reduced levels of precipitation and the increased spread of parasites and diseases.) COMMENT -------------- 13.(SBU) Mongolia's unspoiled wilderness has allowed researchers from all over the world to investigate the advance of global warming and climate change on a scientific level. But you hardly need a thermometer or Bunsen burner to see the devastating toll that global warming is already exacting on the environment and people of Mongolia. As water resources vanish and desertification intensifies, herders compete over dwindling patches of grazing land. Governors from Mongolia's eastern provinces report that violence has spread among herders, with those migrating from dried-up southern pastures contending with herders in the north for a piece of their richer steppe. The livelihood of herder communities suffers and the country's large agricultural sector is negatively impacted. Urbanization intensifies as more herders abandon their traditions to find work in the cities. ¶14. (SBU) So far Mongolia has talked the talk in combating global warming. President Enkhbayar made climate change the theme of one of his major speeches during his recent visit to the U.S., for example. But as is often the case, lack of resources and capacity limit the GOM's responses to the crisis. The country's deteriorating environmental situation is exacerbated by vested interests (artisanal mining and the cashmere industry),poor coordination among ministries and agencies, inadequate monitoring of natural resource conditions and weak enforcement of environmental regulations. To address these challenges, the GOM will need to more vigorously enforce existing environmental laws, expand its system of nature reserves, and invest in energy-efficient technologies and pollution abatement schemes. The GOM will also need to work more closely with international organizations and civil society to promote environmental awareness. Minton