JAPANESE AMBASSADOR ON MONGOLIAN POLITICS, DPRK

C O N F I D E N T I A L ULAANBAATAR 000570 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND EAP/J MILLENIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC FOR F. REID E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON MG SUBJECT: JAPANESE AMBASSADOR ON MONGOLIAN POLITICS, DPRK TALKS Classified By: DCM Brian Goldbeck for Reason 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In an October 3 meeting with the Ambassador, Japanese Ambassador Ichihashi said Mongolia's ruling party, the MPRP, is "looking desperate" and could well lose next year's general election. The Japanese envoy also shared details of the recent Japan-DPRK talks in Ulaanbaatar, and announced that Mongolia's Foreign Minister will visit Japan next month. On assistance programs for Mongolia, the U.S. and Japanese Ambassadors agreed that their countries, along with Europeans, should look for opportunities to coordinate efforts, in order to amplify their impact. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Japanese Ambassador Yasuyoshi Ichihashi told the Ambassador over lunch October 3 that in his view, the ruling Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP) is "looking desperate," tumbling in popularity and in danger of losing next year's general election. Ichihashi said the MPRP is in disarray, with reformists gaining ground and the rank and file uneasy in the run-up to the election. He said the opposition Democratic Party seems more unified than the MPRP. He added that it's possible that the MPRP will take legislative steps to "pass some money out" to the public. JAPAN-DPRK TALKS -------------- ¶3. (C) Ambassador Ichihashi, joined by DCM Kobayashi, also shared insights from the recent Japan-DPRK talks in Ulaanbaatar, saying he was surprised that all of the North Korean delegates, with the exception of the Ambassador, speak Japanese. He said that thanks to Mongolian intermediaries, he was able to speak directly with the North Korean Ambassador for the first time. Ichihashi said the discussions lasted two full days and included the disabling of DPRK nuclear facilities. (Note: He did not provide further details. End Note.) The talks ended "with smiles and the shaking of hands." The Japanese Ambassador noted that the North Koreans did not hide their disgust of former Prime Minister Abe, who they felt was too harsh on sanctions and ruled out any aid. Ichihashi held out the possibility of further Japan-DPRK talks in Mongolia (though an aide pointed out that the Japanese delegates might prefer to avoid a visit to UB in the wintertime). "GREATER NUMBERS, GREATER LEVERAGE" -------------- ¶4. (C) Ambassador Ichihashi congratulated the United States for concluding a $285 million Millenium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact with Mongolia, and said Japan too wanted "to increase our input, but there are always budget considerations." Ambassador Minton noted that the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is considering investing $15 million in Mongolia this year (and perhaps $100 million next year),and that if the United States, Japan and Europe compare and coordinate efforts, their impact could be amplified. "Greater numbers give us greater leverage," the Ambassador noted. The Japanese Ambassador concurred. He added that the Government of Japan is taking a number of steps to boost Mongolia's private sector, including organizing talks aimed at promoting trade and investment, as well as the mining sector. MONGOLIAN FM TO VISIT JAPAN -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Ichihashi said Mongolian Foreign Minister Enkhbold will visit Japan in November. The head of the Democratic Party, former Prime Minister Elbegdorj, plans a separate visit the same month, he added. MINTON