DECISION ON 8TH ROTATION TO IRAQ DELAYED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ULAANBAATAR 000355 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2017 TAGS: MARR PREL PGOV PINR MG IZ PL SUBJECT: DECISION ON 8TH ROTATION TO IRAQ DELAYED BY POLITICS REF: ULAANBAATAR 339 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: E/P Chief Patrick J. Freeman, for reasons 1.4(B) and (D) ¶1. (C) During a June 19 meeting, Presidential Foreign Policy Adviser Tsogtbaatar told E/P Chief that the GOM's decision on sending an 8th rotation of troops to Iraq has been delayed because of the June 14 parliamentary vote to dismiss Ts. Nyamdorj as Speaker. He noted that, because of the dismissal, the National Security Council (President, Speaker, and Prime Minister) lacks all of its members. Tsogtbaatar noted that, procedurally, Vice Speaker Lundeejantsan could attend in place of the Speaker, but said he thought that was unlikely in the current circumstances and for the purpose of making a decision on the Iraq rotation. This means the NSC meeting is on indefinite hold. Tsogtbaatar said that, for political cover reasons in case troops are injured on the rotation, Prime Minister Enkhbold would continue to want the Cabinet to make a decision on the rotation on the basis of an NSC recommendation, rather than have the Cabinet decide first and have the NSC endorse that decision. ¶2. (C) E/P Chief noted that the nominal July 1 departure date for the 7th rotation -- originally scheduled to leave in late March, but extended by three months -- is fast approaching, and added that transportation arrangements for the rotation switch cannot be made instantly. Tsogtbaatar replied by expressing confidence that the NSC would be able to meet before July 1 and make a recommendation to the Cabinet. ¶3. (SBU) The MPRP stated on June 15 that it intended to nominate Vice Speaker Lundeejantsan as the new Speaker, and wrote other political parties seeking their support. While some of the other five political parties represented in Parliament expressed support, the Democratic Party (by far the largest opposition party) announced on June 18 that they would not support Lundeejantsan. After the Democratic Party's announcement, the MPRP stated that it intends to move forward with the formal parliamentary process to hold a vote on Lundeejantsan as the new Speaker. ¶4. (C) Comment: If the MPRP holds together, it holds a one vote majority in Parliament, and it should be able to count on the vote of at least six other MPs whose parties belong to the coalition government, which would seem to make installing Lundeejantsan as Speaker a foregone conclusion. However, as the maneuvering over Nyamdorj -- and the earlier parliamentary votes to dismiss two other ministers -- demonstrates, the MPRP can count on neither its own MPs nor those of its partners. The Iraq rotation is far from the only thing delayed by the politicking over the last few months; in his farewell remarks, Nyamdorj noted that, in contrast to the passage by Parliament in its session a year ago of many major pieces of legislation, the Spring session has so far only managed to pass a law on forestry. The only saving grace with respect to the Iraq rotation is that the 7th rotation will remain in place pending a decision -- but the troops in that rotation, and Mongolia's Coalition partners, will be waiting for the domestic politicking to be put on pause long enough to make a decision. For their part, the 130 plus troops who would form the 8th rotation are trained and ready to go. MINTON