Mongolia Scenesetter for A/S Hill

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ULAANBAATAR 000336 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS Department for EAP A/S Hill, from Ambassador E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL EAID EMIN ETRD PINR MG SUBJECT: Mongolia Scenesetter for A/S Hill SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION ¶1. (SBU) We and the Mongolian Government very much look forward to your visit. You will be the most senior solo State Department visitor to Mongolia since Jim Kelly in October 2004; Kelly visited to inaugurate the first session of the "Comprehensive, Bilateral, Global, Regional Issues" (CBRGI) dialogue. That visit followed President Bagabandi's July 2004 trip to the U.S., during which the new "comprehensive partnership" description of the bilateral relationship was coined in the presidential joint statement. You accompanied the President and the Secretary on the historic November 2005 visit, which provided considerable momentum to the relationship and Mongolian expectations. Your own visit likely will have as a central theme the deliverables for President Enkhbayar's proposed trip this October. Mongolia's Closest Third Neighbor -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The United States has pride of place among Mongolia's "third neighbors," an elastic category that also includes South Korea, Japan, and Europe. The third neighbor concept is Mongolia's effort to escape from its distinct geopolitical disadvantage of being a landlocked state wedged between the twin giants of Russia and China. Mongolia is careful to remain on cordial terms with both its real neighbors, but historical wariness about Chinese domination is not far below the surface, and there is some resentment about the rapid Russian pullout in the early 1990s which led to a sharp depression, resentment which has bubbled to the surface more now that the Russians have made a heavy handed reappearance trying to gain special access to Mongolia's mineral deposits. U.S. wariness about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is more than matched by Mongolia's own cautiousness. Mongolia only decided to become an observer in the organization because it wishes to be ready to take part in any regional economic integration activities. Mongolia aims to build relationships as widely as it can -- one reason it is hosting an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) meeting June 11-12, and why it hopes for U.S. support to join APEC and NATO's Partnership for Peace. 8th Rotation: Time for a Decision -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Your visit is well-timed to urge a decision on an 8th rotation of Mongolian soldiers to Iraq. The troops for the next rotation have finished training, and a formal decision needs to be made soon if they are to have any chance of getting to Iraq by July 1, the date the three-month extension of the 7th rotation ends. According to the President's Foreign Policy Advisor (FPA), Tsogtbaatar, the Ambassador's June 6 meeting with President SIPDIS Enkhbayar was helpful in moving the discussion on the next rotation forward within the Mongolian government. There reputedly has been an "Alphonse and Gaston" dynamic within the government, with the President viewing it as an issue for the Prime Minister and the Cabinet to make a decision, and Prime Minister Enkhbold not wanting to make the decision (for fear of shouldering the blame by himself if troops are injured during the rotation). As reportedly happened for the extension of the 7th rotation, Enkhbayar likely will blink and ask the National Security Council (President, Speaker and Prime Minister) to recommend to the Cabinet that an 8th rotation be sent. (Note: You may expect increased sensitivity to casualties as there has been a recent surge in attacks against Camp Echo, where the Mongolians provide perimeter defense, with attacks on June 8 (2 rockets),9 (18 rockets, 2 landing inside the base),and 11 (43 mortar rounds, 13 landing inside the base),but fortunately none were killed or wounded.) ¶4. (SBU) The initial deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan were made when Enkhbayar was Prime Minister in 2003, and he remains a strong supporter of these and other PKO deployments. The ongoing shift of Mongolia's military to focus on international peacekeeping has helped raise Mongolia's political profile with a range of nations -- and has helped bring the Mongolian military much-need cash. Some 250 Mongolian troops have guarded the UN war crimes tribunal in Sierra Leone since late 2005, and two Mongolian detachments have also served under Belgian command in Kosovo. For the second year in a row, Mongolia will host the U.S.-supported multinational peacekeeping training exercise this August; Admiral Keating has already said he'll come for the closing of the "Khaan Quest 2007" exercise. ULAANBAATA 00000336 002 OF 003 For the President, Signing MCA Compact is Key -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Early this year, President Enkhbayar won the wrestling match with PM Enkhbold as to who would sign the Millennium Challenge Account Compact agreement. Signing the Compact appears to be an essential element of his proposed visit to the U.S. -- enough so that the President's schedulers may get antsy if it appears that the Compact will not be ready for signing during whatever date is set in October by the White House. Since MCC expects to fund the compact with FY 2008 money, a delay might come if Congress does not pass the budget on time. The substantive work on the roughly $175 million compact itself -- focusing on expanding rail capacity, preventive health, vocational education, and property rights -- is drawing to a close. The smooth, harmonious pace of recent months is a welcome change from two and a half years of inconclusive discussions, which had led to frustration, bitterness, and some finger-pointing on both sides. MFA Hopes for a "Comprehensive Partnership" Agreement -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) For its part, MFA appears to have its heart set on President Enkhbayar also signing during his U.S. visit its proposed "Comprehensive Partnership Framework Agreement (CPFA)," a draft text of which MFA gave to DAS Christensen when he came here in late January for the annual CBRGI talks. MFA probably hopes to use such a U.S.-Mongolia document as an example to duplicate with other third neighbors. Enkhbayar himself dutifully raises the CPFA, but we don't sense a personal attachment to it. MFA appears quite miffed that we have reservations about the desirability and feasibility of a document which -- ignoring problematic points like endorsement of a bilateral FTA -- is at once meant to be mostly hortatory, while also being legally binding. Our own belief is that we should mark the warm bilateral relationship via a good presidential Joint Statement, a political statement to meet a political need. For your meetings here, we suggest simply saying that we also look forward to issuing a good statement on the warm bilateral relationship during President Enkhbayar's visit to the U.S. and that, in consultation with our National Security Council staff, we intend to work closely with MFA as the visit draws closer. Eager to Talk About North Korea -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Mongolian officials tell us that Kim Young Nam, President of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, will likely visit Mongolia in the latter part of July. The Mongolians will be deeply interested in your brief on the Six Party Talks and North Korea. They retain warm feelings toward their former Socialist fraternal nation, and even (rather improbably) see themselves as a model for the DPRK of how political and economic transformation can turn out alright and without bloodshed. Economic ties, through bilateral trade and remittances from Mongolian workers, are much stronger with South Korea than with the DPRK. However, Mongolian also hopes a North Korea which acts more normally will help speed regional economic growth. President Enkhbayar visited South Korea from May 28-30, and one focus was the hope that freight from South Korea would go via Mongolia to Europe, which first requires that a rail link through North Korea be open. While desirous of keeping alive its links to North Korea, the GOM says the right things, and deserves praise for its willingness to quietly allow North Korean refugees to transit Mongolia en route to resettlement elsewhere and for giving the North tough love messages on nuclear weapons and missile launches. Economics: Things Are Looking Good -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Mongolia's economy has boomed since 2004, with growth rates from 7-10%. Increased mining operations and high minerals prices have been part of the reason, but favorable weather has helped herders and services like tourism have also grown strongly. Nevertheless, while some Mongolians are doing very well, about a third of the population remain below the poverty line. Mongolia's politicians have been blessed with rapidly rising government revenues, which they have begun to fling at voters in the form of cash handouts to every child and to newlywed couples, as well as a trebling of infrastructure spending this year. ¶9. (SBU) Some of those increased revenues came from a confiscatory ULAANBAATA 00000336 003 OF 003 Windfall Profits Tax law on copper and gold sales abruptly passed last year, a measure which spooked foreign mining investors. Adding to the discomfort was a new law which allows the government to take an equity share of 34-50% in mines on "strategic deposits." However, Rio Tinto and the Canadian company Ivanhoe have struck a deal this year on the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, which has raised hopes that deals can still be done. The U.S. has a key interest in the issue, since the mining sector is a major factor for Mongolia's future -- and provides the major prospects for either new U.S. investment, through companies like Peabody coal or Phelps Dodge, or exports, like those of Caterpillar. Politics: Looking Toward the 2008 Election -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In a little more than a year, the next parliamentary elections will take place. This thought is never far from the mind of Mongolian politicians, as is the reality that the outcome may well be similar to the hung parliament which resulted from the June 2004 elections. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party, Mongolia's fractious major opposition party, has had fun and a good deal of success in recent months in helping to widen and make more visible the divisions in the current coalition government. The latest near victim was Speaker Nyamdorj, who survived a no confidence vote on June 7, but was embarrassed by the fact that at least 11 government MPs voted against him, including at least 5 from his own MPRP. The Democrats dispute the outcome of the vote, and are currently boycotting the State Great Hural. The Democrats earlier successfully split off enough government MPs to oust an MPRP minister and a minor party minister. ¶11. (SBU) The MPRP, which is languishing in opinion polls, doesn't seem to gain much public credit for the large new social welfare programs or sharply increased civil service salaries. Corruption scandals and the visibility in recent months of the feuds within the coalition government and MPRP haven't helped. Odds are the government will hang on until the next election, but Prime Minister Enkhbold looks to be the fall guy if, as seems likely, the MPRP fares poorly in June 2008. President Enkhbayar, who anointed Enkhbold as his successor as MPRP chairman, is dismayed at the MPRP's slump in the polls, and by all accounts (including his own) unhappy with the PM. Enkhbayar also has an election to think about: he is eligible to run for a second term in May 2009 but, under the Constitution, must be nominated by a political party with seats in parliament, i.e., by the MPRP. While Enkhbayar had to resign his party membership before becoming president, that makes him a very interested spectator of the MPRP's travails. Enkhbayar's own popularity, however, has remained relatively high. All this creates a very active domestic political scene, but one in which foreign policy is not a subject of dispute. Mongolian politicians of all stripes agree on the wisdom of the third neighbor policy and close relations with the U.S. Minton 2