Mongolia/Partners Discuss National Development Strategy,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ULAANBAATAR 000229 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR, PEACE CORPS, OPIC, EXIMBANK, AND FEDERAL RESERVE STATE FOR EAP/CM, EAP/EP, AND EB/IFD USAID FOR DEIDRA WINSTON LONDON AND MANILA FOR USEDS TO EBRD, ADB TREASURY PASS WORLD BANK, IMF USEDS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PREL EMIN SOCI MG SUBJECT: Mongolia/Partners Discuss National Development Strategy, Prioritization and Financing Needs at April 3-4 Technical Meeting REF: A) 06 Ulaanbaatar 0165, b) 06 Ulaanbaatar 0790 SENSTIVIE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Government of Mongolia (GOM) and external partners, including bilateral and multilateral donors, international financial institutions and international NGOs, met at the third semiannual GOM/World Bank co-sponsored Technical Meeting in Ulaanbaatar April 3-4. (Reftels summarize the previous two meetings.) The main topic of this session was the GOM's long-promised, newly-published National Development Strategy (NDS). The meeting also included five breakout sessions for the working groups formed at the last meeting to discuss development in specific sectors, including energy, transport, rural development and environment, urban planning and private sector development. Most external partners agreed on the need for greater prioritization of development objectives in the NDS and to address how to achieve these, taking into account financial realities. ¶2. (SBU) External partners' views diverged after that, with some stressing the need for more pro-poor development, some emphasizing the centrality of infrastructure development, and others focused on individual areas of interest such as the environment and education. A number of GOM and other Mongolian representatives agreed with the need for prioritization and expressed skepticism about the value of such voluminous strategy documents, while at times expressing their frustration at external partners' mixed messages. Charge and Acting USAID Mission Director plus USAID cooperators attended the meetings. END SUMMARY. "We Mongolians Will Develop Mongolia Ourselves" -------------- -- ¶3. (U) Prime Minister Enkhbold opened the technical meeting April 3 with a speech declaring that "Mongolians will develop Mongolia." At the same time, he acknowledged that the NDS may not be perfect and welcomed external partner comments. He also noted that, given the tremendous resources required to implement the strategy, donor assistance and private investment would still be needed. He then said that mining sector development would be the GOM's main priority, and he urged external partners "to pay attention to promoting the direct investment that will be made through both governments and private entities." NDS: Everything But Prioritization Included -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The first half of April 3 was spent discussing the recently published draft National Development Strategy, which is based on the Millennium Development Goals. The 80-page (without annexes) NDS document contains 120 priorities and 600 actions that are to be carried out through 2021. (Electronic copies were forwarded to EAP/CM and USAID ANE's Mongolia desks. Tech meeting documents are available at www.worldbank.org/mn.) According to the GOM, the cost to implement the NDS to achieve only Millennium Development Goals (MDG) targets is estimated at US$14 billion, while a further US$22 billion will be needed to fully implement the strategy. (Note: Mongolia typically receives US$150-250 million yearly in assistance from all sources.) Given that Mongolia's nominal GDP in 2006 is estimated at US$2.7 billion, it seems clear that implementing the NDS will require significant donor and, more importantly, private sector resources. Add to this the fact that some estimates for resource requirements, for example in the energy sector, seriously understate the tremendous investment needs of some sectors. ¶5. (SBU) The GOM offered two presentations on the NDS, one giving an overview and one outlining near-term (2008-2012) actions. Partner attendees observed that both presentations revealed the disjointed nature of the NDS as well as the need for further consideration of ULAANBAATA 00000229 002 OF 005 how, rather than simply what, priority goals will be achieved. For example, the GOM's presentations called for real GDP growth to average 16.8% between 2008-12, largely on the basis of mineral sector development. GDP growth from 2002-2006 averaged 7%. However, in prioritizing sectors for investment in the near term, infrastructure is dead last in ninth place, despite that fact that mineral sector development will require massive infrastructure improvements, especially in the energy sector. ¶6. (SBU) Both external partners and GOM officials expressed concern at the lack of prioritization and the absence of concrete plans for how to achieve priority objectives, and some expressed skepticism at the likelihood of implementing yet another grand strategy document. MP and former Prime Minister Amarjargal, while acknowledging that the NDS is a decent starting point, noted that Mongolia had developed many planning documents in the past, but said that they were never implemented because no one has any incentive to do so. MP Damiran expressed similar concerns, noting the large number of strategies that had been developed in the past seventeen years, and quoting a Russian expression on the risks of planning without implementation: "Good dreams lead to hell, good efforts lead to heaven." ¶7. (SBU) Representatives from the EBRD, ADB, UNDP and World Bank all stressed the need for greater prioritization, with the EBRD emphasizing the importance of quantifiable and measurable targets. Others, including the Japanese Ambassador and the UNDP, suggested that the GOM appoint a body to take charge of monitoring and coordinating NDS implementation. (COMMENT: The GOJ has often urged the creation of a "planning ministry" which many here see as creating yet another layer of bureaucracy probably lacking in sufficient authority to achieve the desired objectives.) Others expressed concern that poverty reduction and social development not be neglected in the NDS, with the UNDP Representative saying the poverty reduction must remain the document's top priority. Working Groups Achieve Mixed Results At Best -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Five working groups created at previous technical meetings led break-out discussions on the first day of the technical meeting and presented their results and plans for the next six months at a plenary session on the following day. Each group was led by a Ministry representative and co-chaired by an external partner. The Energy Working Group, for example, was chaired by the Minister of Fuel and Energy and co-chaired by USAID. Attendees noted that some working groups - particularly the Education group - functioned well and achieved significant results (and therefore didn't even meet at this session),while others illustrated the lack of GOM engagement on certain key issues, especially energy and private sector development. In the energy sector, the observation was made that Minister was "too busy" to be involved in the Working Group in the six months since the last technical meeting. For private sector development, the responsible ministry (of Industry and Trade) did not organize even one working group meeting and asked its external partner co-chair to make the presentation at the technical meeting. Moreover, many GOM presentations were little changed since the last technical meeting in October 2006. Disconnects: Attracting Private Investment, Restructuring and Reform, Private vs. Public Sector Roles, and Procurement Rules Hijinx -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Several common themes emerged from the working groups, including the need to assess the GOM's role in developing each sector, the financial sustainability of Government strategies, and potential disjoints between stated Government policy and actions. In transport and energy, in particular, the respective ministries ULAANBAATA 00000229 003 OF 005 have massive investment plans, but these often fail to take into account the economic risks and returns of specific investments, where financing will come from, and how essential private sector investment will be identified and attracted. External partners in both the Energy and Transport Working Groups called for greater consideration of achieving market-driven, rationalized tariff structures and the application of commercial operating principles in service delivery. The disconnect between the GOM's stated policy and its actions is especially strong in regard to private sector involvement and the role of the Government in development. ¶10. (SBU) Across all sector strategies and in several presentations, GOM counterparts noted the importance of private sector investment, but several partner reps observed that ongoing actions would suggest that this is merely lip service to a principle the GOM knows is important to donors. The Minister of Construction and Urban Development, for example, acknowledged that the Government's role in the housing sector was to create a system conducive to investment and create a favorable financial environment. However, the Ministry is pushing a bill in the State Great Hural (SGH, parliament) Parliament that would effectively give it a monopoly on the mortgage market, while at the same time issuing bonds and hiring contractors to build housing in line with the Government's 40,000 Apartments Program. ¶11. (SBU) The Energy Ministry's presentation likewise acknowledges the importance of private investment, donor reps noted, but fails to outline a plan to restructure the sector (especially with regard to tariffs and regulation),without which there will be little or no private investment. Finally, a recent change in the public procurement law allows ministries to enter into contracts without tendering and to exclude foreign bidders from all investments under ten billion tugrik (US$8.6 million, which includes more than 99% of planned procurements for 2007). This clearly undermines the GOM's stated aim to attract private investment and could result in the signing of inside deals that result in shoddy work. USAID-Led Energy Working Group Flags Restructuring and Investment Needs, Risks -------------- ¶12. (SBU) In the Energy Working Group break-out session, USAID expressed strong concerns about the financial sustainability of the sector and the lack of progress in restructuring it. (Septel on energy concerns will follow.) USAID also voiced concerns that several planned or pending investments in energy assets will actually increase the financial burdens on the already highly indebted sector (a member of the State Property Commission put the sector's debt at US$300 million). For example, a planned hydropower plant to be financed by a US$300 million Chinese government loan will produce electricity at a cost 50% higher than current retail rates, by World Bank and USAID estimates, meaning that tariffs will have to increase or its operation will have to be subsidized by the state or other generating assets. ¶13. (SBU) Most troubling of all, these recent developments in the sector suggest that it will continue to be a drag on Mongolia's economy, rather than providing the economic boost that is so essential to mineral development and to realizing the many goals outlined in the NDS. For its part, the Ministry of Fuel and Energy, represented by the Director of the Policy Department, acknowledged that the sector is bankrupt and that tariffs need to be increased. Unfortunately, the Minister's own recent public pronouncements - that tariffs will not be increased and that new energy capacity will actually reduce tariff rates - suggest that the Ministry's presentation only sought to tell external partners what they wanted to hear. (COMMENT: Energy provision and pricing are seen as bellwether issues, either of which, according to political party reps on both sides of the aisle, could become common cause for ULAANBAATA 00000229 004 OF 005 citizens at all levels of society, filling the streets with protestors.) During a closing plenary discussion on April 4, the DCM reiterated that the energy sector needed reform and restructuring plus an improved business climate if it is to attract the substantial amounts of private sector FDI needed. Private Sector Working Group Focuses on SMEs, IFI Assistance to Mining Development -------------- ¶14. (U) The Private Sector Working Group session consisted of two presentations: one by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT), dealing primarily with a proposed law on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and a government scheme to provide concessional loans to SMEs; and a presentation by the EBRD about proposals by it, the World Bank Group and ADB to provide technical assistance to the GOM and equity and debt financing to promote the development of mining and related infrastructure in Mongolia. An MIT representative indicated that the Government had earmarked 15 strategic mineral deposits which they wanted to develop, starting with only a few key deposits. He noted the Government's desire to ensure that the process of mining development be fair to Mongolian citizens, transparent and that the Government would be a fair partner in implementing projects to develop these strategic deposits. Little Discussion on Declining Investment Environment -------------- -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Partners later observed that very little was said during the day and a half technical meeting about the marked decline in Mongolia's investment climate in 2006 for mineral development, as demonstrated by the Frasier Institute's recent ranking of countries with mineral resources. According to that report and as cited during the technical meeting, Mongolia fell from 33rd to 62nd out of 65 countries in terms of attractiveness for investments in the mineral sector. Most analysts feel this drop was due to the passage of the Windfall Profits Tax (WPT),which imposes a 68% tax on copper and gold exports, and to changes in the Minerals Law, which included ill-defined clauses calling for government ownership of large stakes in so-called "strategic deposits" of up to 50%. In his closing remarks, World Bank Mongolia Country Director David Dollar did note that new mining regulations "may discourage investmen." Dollar and others, including the IMF Representative, noted that the new public procurement law allowing ministries to do direct contracting may result in poor quality work and corruption. On the other hand, in his opening statement, World Bank Group Vice President Michael Klein said nothing of the deteriorating investment climate, but said he was encouraged by Mongolia's focus on transparency. Mongolia's Macroeconomic Policy Vulnerable To Shocks -------------- -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Both the IMF and the World Bank expressed concerns about the sustainability of current macroeconomic policy, under which the GOM rapidly expanded its budget in 2006, especially on social spending subsidies for newly weds, children, babies, etc. The IMF Resident Representative urged the GOM to reduce its vulnerability to internal and external economic shocks, meaning potential downturns in mineral prices which would seriously affect GOM revenues. This is in line with a message delivered regularly by the IMF, World Bank and others that increases in recurring expenditures such as wages and social benefits on the back of revenues from unusually high copper prices is not sustainable. The IMF also expressed concern about a lack of budget transparency, noting that the Government's 40,000 apartments construction program is not accounted for in the budget. The ADB Representative made a similar point in the Energy Working Group session, regarding Government subsidization of the energy sector, which is not clearly accounted for and is not ULAANBAATA 00000229 005 OF 005 targeted to benefit those least able to pay. Donors Also Need To Prioritize -------------- ¶17. (SBU) Towards the end of the technical meeting, several Mongolian participants expressed some frustration at donors' calls for prioritization. The Prime Minister's Economic Advisor complained that external partners insist that the GOM consult with civil society and the public, but then expect the GOM to set priorities among diverse issues of public concern. Another speaker called for external partners to make recommendations about what should be Mongolia's development priorities. The meeting closed with a speech from the Finance Minister, who thanked the external partners for their critiques of and suggestions for the NDS. He also asked that each of the working groups submit a plan of action to the Ministry by the end of the month, outlining what will be accomplished by the next technical meeting in early September. Goldbeck