GOT INSIDER SAYS TUNISIA READY FOR FASTER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TUNIS 000958

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NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG (HARRIS AND HOPKINS)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL TS
SUBJECT: GOT INSIDER SAYS TUNISIA READY FOR FASTER
POLITICAL REFORM


Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) AND (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (S) During a ninety-minute courtesy call with the
Ambassador on July 12, Arab League Deputy Secretary General
and GOT insider Chedli Neffati told the Ambassador that,
while security concerns had slowed reform in the 1990s,
Tunisia today is ready for more political liberalization.
However, "we are not all in agreement" about the need for
change despite the fact that most Tunisians today are
moderate and reject extremism. On regional issues, Neffati
said Algeria had refused to engage on Western Sahara and
bemoaned Iranian influence in the region. End summary.

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TWO REGIMES
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2. (C) Neffati contrasted today's regime with the instability
that marked the end of Bourguiba's rule in the 1980s.
Neffati explained that the Bourguiba regime was weak in its
last ten years, with "everyone" thinking about who would be
president after Bourguiba. Bourguiba's "fatal error" was
neglecting the importance of religion to Tunisians. This
weakness led to the rise of Islamists and labor unrest. In
contrast, Ben Ali today is not "moribund" and has done much
to show his respect for Islam, including creating a Ministry
of Religious Affairs and supporting Zeitouna University. Ben
Ali, said Neffati, "did a lot at the beginning" of his
regime. But the turmoil in Algeria during the 1990s
threatened to spill over and "we didn't have a free hand to
continue change in Tunisia." Therefore, Neffati explained,
maintaining security became paramount.

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LET THE REFORMS BEGIN...
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3. (S) Today, however, things are calmer and Tunisia is ready
for more change. The Ambassador pressed Neffati on the need
for political change, noting Tunisia's shortfalls on freedom
of expression and association. "Maybe I am naive," said
Neffati, "but I am a democrat and believe our country could
be a model." Tunisia's economic and social development has
provided the necessary foundation for the political plan.
Neffati opined that he hoped there will be more political
progress after November's twentieth anniversary of Ben Ali's
rule. But he warned, "We are not all in agreement" and some
think further reform is not possible.

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...AND THE OPPOSITION OPPOSE
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4. (S) Joking that when he was Minister of Interior he knew
all the opposition political leaders "from their files,"
Neffati said that he also knows them all personally.
Contrasting other officials' comments, Neffati argued that
most opposition leaders are nationalists who can participate
and want to discuss Tunisia's challenges. Further, Ben Ali
"is convinced" that the opposition should have a role in
politics, as demonstrated by his decision in 1994 to reserve
twenty percent of parliamentary seats for the opposition.

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PEOPLE ARE READY
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5. (C) Noting that when he was a governor he visited rural
villages to meet with people, Neffati argued that Tunisians
are open and moderate and can quickly adapt to change.
Because of this, he argued that religious extremism is not a
danger in Tunisia, because "very few" support terrorist
ideologies. "No one in Tunisia is an extremist because of the
party, government or Ben Ali," said Neffati, but extremism is
fueled by the situation in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine and
even Algeria. And, in his view, even this small number is a
lot for a country of ten million.

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REGIONAL ISSUES
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6. (C) The Ambassador raised the Arab League's role on
regional issues, including the Western Sahara, Iraq and
Lebanon. In response, Neffati noted that AL SYG Amr Moussa

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has done nothing on the Western Sahara issue because Algeria,
a major AL financier, "asked us not to discuss it." Even
President Ben Ali could try to do something, said Neffati,
except Algeria says "we're not a party (to the dispute)." On
Iraq, Neffati said he regretted the Arab world had not played
a larger role, adding that the United States and Iran cannot
find a solution alone. Ruefully he noted, "Who could have
imagined Iranian influence in Lebanon, Palestine and Syria?"
Commenting that the image of the United States in the Arab
world is tarnished, Neffati stressed that Arabs have a
problem with US policy, not the American people. If there is
a solution for Iraq and Palestine, "all of this will be
forgotten," concluded Neffati.

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COMMENT AND BIO NOTE
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7. (S/NF) Comment: Unlike the vast majority of Tunisian
officials who argue that the slow pace of reform is just
right given Tunisia's history and experience, Neffati is the
first GOT insider who has directly argued in favor of more
political reform now. He also articulated what others have
only hinted, that two views on reform exist inside the
government. What is unclear is whether or not Neffati is
temporarily sidelined at the Arab League or if he has fallen
out of favor. Whatever the case, Post will continue to
develop Neffati as a contact to see how he could support our
efforts to promote the Freedom Agenda. End Comment.


8. (C) Bio Note: Neffati is a political insider with wide and
detailed knowledge of Tunisia. A long-time party activist,
he was governor of Kairouan (1982-84) and Beja (1984-88). In
1988, shortly after the Ben Ali coup, he was appointed
Secretary of State for Security before serving as Minister of

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Interior. In 1990, he became Minister of Justice, then RCD
Secretary General for five years (1991-96). In 1996, Neffati

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was named Minister of Social Affairs, then Chairman of the
Economic and Social Council from 2001 until 2002, when he was
reappointed Minister of Social Affairs. In 2005 he became
Tunisia's ambassador to Egypt, before being appointed Arab
League Deputy Secretary General in December 2006.
GODEC