NO POLITICAL PRISONER RELEASE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000404 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/MAG (HOPKINS AND HARRIS) E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2017 TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM TS SUBJECT: NO POLITICAL PRISONER RELEASE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY -- A RARE EXCEPTION TO TRADITION REF: A. TUNIS 293 ¶B. 06 TUNIS 425 ¶C. TUNIS 70 Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec, for reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) Traditionally, President Ben Ali has announced the release of prisoners around two holidays: March 20, Tunisian Independence Day; and November 7, the holiday commemorating the palace coup that brought Ben Ali to power in 1987. These releases have in past years included members of the Islamist party An-Nahdha, and others described by international NGOs as political prisoners. However, this year there was no prisoner release associated with Independence Day, despite prevalent rumors among the Tunisian activist community that the GOT would release prominent political prisoner Mohamed Abbou (Ref A). Last year, over 1600 prisoners were released in the weeks leading up to Independence Day, including high-profile prisoners Hamadi Jebali, spokesperson for An-Nahdha, and the Zarzis Group, a group of young men jailed on terrorism charges (Ref B). ¶2. (C) COMMENT: Speculation is rampant among Tunisian activists as to why the President did not observe the tradition of March 20th amnesties. Most observers point to the recent wave of arrests after the December/January Soliman security incidents (Ref C),suggesting that in a tightened security atmosphere, the GOT is not willing to send signals of leniency. Other activists have suggested that the GOT has already released all political prisoners that it has deemed as posing no significant threat, and that those remaining, including by most counts approximately 150 of the An-Nahdha prisoners arrested in the 1990s, are still seen as too risky to release. (NOTE: The release of higher-profile An-Nahdha leaders, such as Jebali, in previous years, would seem to discredit this view. END NOTE) Finally, some have suggested that continuing international pressure on the political prisoner issue has put the GOT into a more defensive posture, and has made Ben Ali reluctant to be perceived as giving in to outsider's demands. END COMMENT. GODEC