ANOTHER SHOOTOUT SOUTH OF TUNIS AMID SPECULATION

S E C R E T TUNIS 000016 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS NEA FOR JEFFREY, GRAY AND HOPKINS NSC FOR ABRAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2017 TAGS: PREL EU TS SUBJECT: ANOTHER SHOOTOUT SOUTH OF TUNIS AMID SPECULATION ABOUT DECEMBER 23 INCIDENT REF: A. TUNIS 2973 ¶B. TUNIS 2980 ¶C. IIR 6 897 0044 07 CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR ROBERT F. GODEC FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: ON THE HEELS OF THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOT-OUT REPORTED BY THE TUNISIAN MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR (REF A), THE MOI ANNOUNCED TODAY A SECOND SECURITY OPERATION IN A SOUTHERN SUBURB OF TUNIS IN WHICH SECURITY FORCES REPORTEDLY SHOT AND KILLED ALL OF THE MEMBERS OF AN ARMED GROUP. THE GOT LINKED THE LATEST INCIDENT TO THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOT-OUT. THE TEXT OF THE GOTS PRESS RELEASE ON THE LATEST INCIDENT IS REPEATED IN PARA 2. PRIOR TO THIS ANNOUNCEMENT, THE GOT HAD BEEN NEARLY SILENT ABOUT THE DETAILS OF THE INITIAL INCIDENT AND ITS SUBSEQUENT SECURITY POSTURE. IN THE ABSENCE OF OFFICIAL CLARIFICATION, THE TUNISIAN RUMOR MILL HAS BEEN IN OVERDRIVE, WITH THEORIES EXPANDING AND DIVERGING AS DAYS PASS, INCLUDING AMONG THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY. THE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED SECURITY PRESENCE THROUGHOUT TUNISIA, INCLUDING AT HOTELS AND SHOPPING CENTERS, FUELED SPECULATION THAT THE GOT HAD YET TO FIND THE PERPETRATORS. TUNISIAN MILITARY FORCES WERE ALSO PARTICIPATING DIRECTLY IN THE HEIGHTENED SECURITY, A HIGHLY UNUSUAL DEVELOPMENT. IN GOVERNORATES SOUTH OF TUNIS, EMBASSY OFFICERS HAVE OBSERVED ARMED SECURITY FORCES SEARCHING RURAL FIELDS ON FOOT. TEN DAYS AFTER THE SHOOT-OUT, CIRCUMSTANCES SUGGEST THAT THE GOT CONTROL OVER THE COUNTRY IS NOT AS INFALLIBLE AS MANY HAD BELIEVED. END SUMMARY. -------------- TUNISIAN GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES JANUARY 3 KILLING OF GROUP OF "DANGEROUS CRIMINALS" -------------- ¶2. (SBU) THE TUNISIAN AFRICAN PRESS AGENCY (TAP) TODAY RELEASED THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: BEGIN TEXT (INFORMAL EMBASSY TRANSLATION FROM ARABIC): AN OFFICIAL SOURCE AT THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR AND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ANNOUNCED THAT, IN THE CONTEXT OF AN INVESTIGATION BEING CONDUCTED FOLLOWING AN EXCHANGE OF GUNFIRE BETWEEN DANGEROUS CRIMINALS AND SECURITY FORCES ON THE NIGHT OF DECEMBER 23, SECURITY FORCES WEDNESDAY PURSUED THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE GROUP IN A SUBURB SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL, LEADING TO AN EXCHANGE OF GUNFIRE. IN THE COURSE OF THE FIREFIGHT, THE MEMBERS OF THE GROUP WERE SHOT AND KILLED. END TEXT. -------------- -- BUT THE GOT HAS NOT BEEN FORTHCOMING IN DETAILS -------------- -- ¶3. (C) DESPITE REPEATED INQUIRIES, THE GOT HAS YET TO PROVIDE EMBASSY WITH TANGIBLE DETAILS OF THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOT-OUT IN THE SOUTHERN SUBURB OF HAMMAM LIF THAT REPORTEDLY LED TO THE DEATH OF TWO ARMED GUNMEN AND THE INJURY OF TWO SECURITY OFFICIALS (REFTEL) LET ALONE OF TODAY'S INCIDENT. MFA, MILITARY, AND INTELLIGENCE CONTACTS HAVE INDICATED THE OFFICIAL VERSION OF EVENTS IS THE EXTENT OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE, AS THE INVESTIGATION CONTINUES. IN A JANUARY 3 MEETING AT THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR (MOI) -- A MEETING THAT PRESUMABLY PRECEDED THE SECOND SHOOT-OUT, WHICH WAS ANNOUNCED THAT AFTERNOON, CONTACTS SUGGESTED, WITHOUT ELABORATION, THAT THE SEARCH FOR THE INVOLVED HAD EXPANDED TO THE VICINITIES OF THE CENTRAL TUNISIAN CITIES OF SIDI BOU ZID AND KASSERINE, LENDING CREDENCE TO RUMORS THAT THOSE INVOLVED MAY HAVE ENTERED TUNISIA FROM ALGERIA. ¶4. (C) AS OF JANUARY 3, INCREASED SECURITY FORCES REMAIN VISIBLE THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY, ALBEIT AT A REDUCED LEVEL IN SOME PLACES. WHILE THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOT-OUT REPORTEDLY OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SUBURB OF HAMMAM LIF OR HAMMAM CHATT, EMBOFFS WHO VISITED THE AREA ON DECEMBER 28 NOTICED LITTLE ADDITIONAL SECURITY THERE COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS OF TUNIS. HOWEVER, FURTHER SOUTH, IN THE AREAS OF GROMBALIA (40 KM FROM TUNIS) AND SIDI BOU ZID (280 KM FROM TUNIS),EMBOFFS OBSERVED SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF WHAT APPEARED TO BE ARMED MILITARY PERSONNEL CONDUCTING SEARCHES OF AGRICULTURAL AREAS ON DECEMBER 31. MEANWHILE, IN TUNIS AND ITS SUBURBS, POLICE CHECKPOINTS HAVE BEEN SUPPLEMENTED TO INCLUDE BARRICADES, SPIKE STRIPS AND ANTI-VEHICLE OBSTACLES. ALMOST EVERY VEHICLE LARGER THAN A REGULAR CAR, FROM MINIVANS TO TRUCKS TO SUVS, IS NOW STOPPED AT SUCH CHECKPOINTS THROUGHOUT TUNIS. AS OF 1700 LOCAL TIME, THESE CHECKPOINTS WERE STILL IN PLACE IN THE TUNIS SUBURBS, SUGGESTING THAT THE GOT MAY NOT YET HAVE CAUGHT ALL OF THE PERPETRATORS OF THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOTING. -------------- AN ACTIVE RUMOR MILL -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) WITHOUT FURTHER OFFICIAL DETAILS, THE TUNISIAN RUMOR MILL CONTINUES TO SPECULATE ON THE REAL STORY. AMONG THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY, THE ITALIAN AMBASSADOR HAS BEEN VOCAL IN EXPRESSING HIS "CONCERN" ABOUT THE INCIDENTS. IN A JANUARY 3 MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR, HE OPINED THAT THE "MASSIVE MOBILIZATION" OF SECURITY FORCES (3000 MEN ARE SAID TO HAVE BEEN MOBILIZED TO SERVE ON ROTATING 12-HOUR SHIFTS) WAS INDICATIVE OF A SERIOUS THREAT. HE REPEATED A RUMOR HE HAD HEARD THAT THE PERPETRATORS BELONGED TO A TERRORIST GROUP OTHER THAN THE ALGERIAN-BASED SALAFIST GROUP FOR PREACHING AND COMBAT (GSPC),BUT THAT THE GROUP WAS ALSO "VERY EXTREME." THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR WAS DESCRIBED AS BEING LESS CONCERNED ABOUT THE INCIDENTS, VIEWING THEM AS "CLEANING UP" OPERATIONS BY THE TUNISIAN SECURITY SERVICES. THE GERMAN AMBASSADOR, AWARE OF ALL OF THE CONFLICTING RUMORS, WAS STILL ASSESSING THE SECURITY IMPLICATIONS. ¶6. (C) AMONG OTHER EMBASSY CONTACTS, SPECULATION IS EQUALLY RIFE (SEE ALSO REF C). SOME NOTE THAT OFFICIAL CORRUPTION -- RUMORED OF LATE TO BE WIDESPREAD, PARTICULARLY AMONG POORLY PAID SECURITY PERSONNEL -- MAY HAVE ALLOWED CONTAINERS OF WEAPONS TO PASS UNNOTICED INTO THE COUNTRY. OTHERS BELIEVE THE RUMORED INTER-CLAN RIVALRY BETWEEN PRESIDENT BEN ALIS FAMILY AND HIS WIFE'S TRABELSI RELATIVES MAY HAVE EXPANDED INTO AN ARMED POWER STRUGGLE. SOME REPORT THAT "HUNDREDS" HAVE BEEN ARRESTED AS THE INVESTIGATION CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH HUMAN RIGHTS ENTITIES THAT TRADITIONALLY NOTE SUCH ARRESTS HAVE NOT CORROBORATED THIS RUMOR. -------------- WHO'S ACCOUNTABLE? -------------- ¶7. (C) IN A PRESUMABLY RELATED EVENT, PRESIDENT ZINE EL ABIDINE BEN ALI MET ON DECEMBER 28 WITH MINISTER OF INTERIOR RAFIK BEL HAJ KACEM. ACCORDING TO A GOT STATEMENT, BEL HAJ KACEM BRIEFED BEN ALI ON THE MINISTRY'S ACTIVITIES AND ORGANIZATION, WHICH LIKELY INCLUDED THE ONGOING SEARCH FOR THOSE INVOLVED IN THE DECEMBER 23 EVENT. ADDITIONALLY, ON DECEMBER 28, LOCAL MEDIA REPORTED THAT THE HAMMAM LIF MUNICIPAL COUNCIL WAS DISSOLVED, DUE TO THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF ITS MUNICIPAL DUTIES. A RELATED REPORTED NOTED THAT, ON DECEMBER 25, THE GOVERNOR OF BEN AROUS (THE GOVERNORATE IN WHICH HAMMAM LIF IS LOCATED) APPOINTED AN INTERIM COMMISSION TO REPLACE THE FORMER COUNCIL. THESE REPORTS INDICATE THAT HIGH-LEVEL GOT OFFICIALS ARE FOLLOWING THE ISSUE AND ARE PERSONALLY INVOLVED. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (S/NF) IT IS STRIKING THAT A REGIME THAT PRIDES ITSELF ON THE ABILITY TO CONTROL THE DOMESTIC SECURITY SITUATION HAD NOT CONTAINED THE THREAT MORE THAN TEN DAYS AFTER THE INITIAL INCIDENT. THE DECEMBER 23 SHOOT-OUT MARKED THE FIRST TIME IN 25 YEARS THAT GUNMEN OPENED FIRE ON TUNISIAN SECURITY FORCES AT A STANDARD SECURITY CHECKPOINT. AS A RESULT, WE MAY WELL SEE FURTHER RESPONSES BY THE GOT, INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE LONG-AWATIED CABINET SHAKE-UP BY BEN ALI. ¶9. (C/NF) COMMENT, CONTINUED: THERE IS STILL MUCH THAT WE DO NOT KNOW ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRED IN THE DECEMBER 23 AND JANUARY 3 INCIDENTS. THE ABSENCE OF EXPLANATIONS OF WHAT TRANSPIRED SUGGESTS THE GOT HAS YET TO CRAFT A CREDIBLE SPIN -- TRADITIONALLY THE RESPONSIBILITY OF FORMER PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESMAN AND CURRENT FOREIGN MINISTER ABDELWAHEB ABDALLAH. EMBASSY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEK CLARIFICATION FROM GOT CONTACTS, INCLUDING IN UPCOMING MEETINGS THE AMBASSADOR HAS WITH THE MINISTER OF INTERIOR AND WITH PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR BEN DHIA. IN THE ABSENCE OF KNOWLEDGE OF ANY NEW THREATS, EMBASSY WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT SECURITY POSTURE, ALREADY AT A HEIGHTENED LEVEL. LIKEWISE, CURRENT ADVICE TO THE BROADER AMERICAN COMMUNITY REMAINS APPROPRIATE, GIVEN AVAILABLE INFORMATION. EMBASSY WILL INFORM DEPARTMENT IMMEDIATELY SHOULD ANY NEW, RELEVANT INFORMATION COME TO LIGHT, AND PROVIDE FURTHER ANALYSIS, AS WARRANTED. GODEC