TUNISIA: GUBERNATORIAL AND RCD CHANGES; CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TUNIS 001171 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR NEA/FO (GRAY) AND NEA/MAG (HARRIS AND HOPKINS) E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL TS SUBJECT: TUNISIA: GUBERNATORIAL AND RCD CHANGES; CABINET RESHUFFLE TO FOLLOW? REF: A. 06 TUNIS 1776 ¶B. 06 TUNIS 557 ¶C. 06 TUNIS 55 Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The last several days in Tunisia have seen a reshuffle of governors, as well as the appointment of six new secretaries-general of the ruling Constitutional Democratic SIPDIS Rally (RCD) party. Most observers here expect a cabinet reshuffle will soon follow. One informed contact speculated that the role of Prime Minister will go either to Central Bank Governor Baccar or Foreign Minister Abdallah. The latter's appointment as PM could have an impact on bilateral relations. End Summary. -------------- Reshuffle of Governors -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Local media on August 23 announced a reshuffle of 7 of Tunisia's 24 governors, who are appointed by the President. Among the announced changes, two of the governors are new, two governors swapped portfolios, and three were moved from one governorate to another. Following is a list of the new governors, along with their respective regions: Name Former Region Current Region Kamel Somai Sfax Beja Mohamed Ben Salem Beja Sfax Kamel Ben Ali Medenine Manouba Nejib Barkallah Kairouan Medenine Yassine Barbouche Tozeur Kairouan Mohamed Ridha Belhaj none Tataouine Slah Romdhane none Tozeur -------------- RCD Shakes Things Up, Too -------------- ¶3. (SBU) This gubernatorial reshuffle comes on the heels of an August 21 announcement by the ruling Democratic Constitutional Rally (RCD) party that six new RCD coordination committee secretaries-general had been appointed in Tunis, Menzah, Ben Arous, Le Kef, Kebili, and Tataouine. With the exception of one secretary-general, who is 59 years old, the new appointees belong to the "next generation" of RCD leaders, aged between 35-and 44. Most gained political exposure in RCD youth and student movements. -------------- Cabinet Reshuffle Imminent? -------------- ¶4. (C) Most observers believe that a cabinet reshuffle is also imminent. The diplomatic community is abuzz with rumors about a possible shake-up. So, too, are our Tunisian contacts. Asked about the likelihood of a reshuffle, Chamber of Advisors President (and RCD Politburo Member) Fouad M'bazaa told the Ambassador that one was "certainly" on the horizon. One contact at the Institut Arabe des Chefs d,Entreprises (IACE),in discussing anticipated changes, was convinced that Central Bank Governor Baccar would be departing. He also said that it is rumored that either Baccar or Foreign Minister Abdallah would become Prime Minister. It has long been rumored that the PM, who is 66 years old, has wanted to retire; some say that he asked to step down last summer, but Ben Ali kept him on. Many observers also speculate that the expected shake-up will include the creating of a new Vice Presidential position, which would require a constitutional amendment. Meanwhile, Hatem Atallah, Chief of Staff to FM Abdallah, confirmed to the Ambassador that he would be appointed as Tunisia,s Ambassador to Ethiopia, which may lend credence to rumors that there will be changes at the top of the MFA. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) It's August in Tunisia, which means it's time to shuffle the cards. Moreover, it has been about two years since the last substantial cabinet reshuffle. We will continue to follow developments relating to a possible cabinet reshuffle, which, especially if results in the TUNIS 00001171 002 OF 002 promotion of FM Abdallah to Prime Minister, could have a significant impact on our bilateral relations. If a reshuffle takes place, we will be attuned to any appointments -- such as the naming of a vice president -- that could be indicative that Ben Ali has chosen an "heir apparent," or that would have other implications for succession scenarios. The approaching 20th anniversary of the November 7th "blessed change" that brought President Ben Ali to power provides a logical backdrop for ministerial changes. But, we suspect that Ben Ali will want to have his new cabinet on board well beforehand -- so that attention will be focused on the festivities -- and, presumably, on Ben Ali, himself. ¶6. (C) Comment, cont'd: Gubernatorial reshuffles are fairly routine; the last one took place in July, 2006 (Ref A). The move of Governor Somai from Sfax to Beja, however, is not routine. Rather, it is considered a demotion, most likely as "punishment" for the January 2007 stampede at an over-crowded Star Academy Lebanon concert, where seven young concert-goers were trampled to death and dozens were injured. As for the new RCD secretaries-general, it appears that the ruling party is seeking to respond to Ben Ali's call to cultivate more political involvement by the under-40 crowd. Indeed, all of Tunisia's political parties could benefit from greater activism on the part of the next generation. GODEC