JAPANESE AMBASSADOR FOR IRAQI RECONSTRUCTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 000695 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR S/I STEPHENSON AND NEA/I E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2017 TAGS: PREL IZ SA QA TU SY JA SUBJECT: JAPANESE AMBASSADOR FOR IRAQI RECONSTRUCTION VISITS NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES Classified By: Ambassador J.Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Japanese Ambassador in Charge of Reconstruction Assistance to Iraq Gotaro Ogawa visited Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar January 24-31. Ogawa reports he found all four countries to be deeply concerned about the lack of stability in Iraq, critical of United States policy, and worried about the rising influence of Iran. -- Syrian officials complained they are trying to take action that will satisfy the United States but are frustrated because they get no credit for steps they claim to be taking to fortify the border and to absorb large numbers of Iraqi refugees; -- The Turks do not believe we take their concerns seriously and say the U.S. ignores their advice; -- Saudi Arabia lacks confidence in the Maliki administration but feels compelled to support it as much as is possible; -- Qatar is willing to play a larger role in coordinating regional support for Iraq and told Ogawa they would be willing to host the signing ceremony for the International Compact with Iraq if requested to do so. Ogawa believes it is critical that the United States continue to work closely with the Maliki government and that the Compact process, which seems to have lost momentum, be reinvigorated. He stressed that Japan understands Washington's new policy toward Iraq and fully supports it. END SUMMARY. -------------- COMMON CONCERNS -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador Ogawa February 14 provided a readout to Embassy Tokyo Political Officer of his January 24-31 visit to several countries neighboring Iraq. Specifically, Ogawa visited Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar as part of Japan's efforts to encourage Iraq's neighbors to be more forthcoming in promoting stability and reconstruction in Iraq. Ogawa observed that each country he visited has unique concerns and outlooks regarding Iraq, but that several common points dominate: -- the stability and territorial integrity of Iraq is of critical importance to all four countries he visited, and all are taking steps to remain engaged to avoid the breakup of the country; -- the four countries he visited are all critical of U.S. policy in Iraq, both with regard to the initial decision to invade and the subsequent policies, and believe that the emphasis of any new policy should focus more on fostering reconciliation and dialogue, not merely enhancing security alone; all of them, but particularly Turkey, which considers itself a key ally of the United States, complained to him that Washington does not listen to them or take their advice seriously; and -- all four countries are very concerned about the rising power of Iran. ¶3. (C) Representatives of each country he visited told Ogawa they are taking what steps they can to help stabilize Iraq. Turkey and Qatar said they are training Iraqi police. Saudi Arabia and Syria claimed to be taking steps to better control their borders with Iraq -- with Syria complaining that they get no credit for the steps they are taking to do so. Turkey, Syria, and Saudi Arabia all told him they are taking steps to encourage the reconciliation process by hosting regional meetings or engaging Iraqi Sunnis with messages urging moderation. In addition to a number of neighboring country conferences and Minister of Interior meetings, Saudi Arabia pointed to the usefulness of the GCC Plus Two engagements and expressed optimism concerning Secretary Rice's renewed efforts to increase mutual understanding and to develop confidence building measures. ¶4. (C) Ogawa was hopeful that Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia could be prevailed upon to provide financial assistance to Iraq in the future. He urged all the countries he visited to TOKYO 00000695 002 OF 003 play an active role in the International Compact With Iraq process and said that Turkey, Syria, and Qatar, although not members of the preparatory group, are interested in joining the process. He is disappointed that Saudi Arabia is not willing to host the Compact's final meeting where it will be signed, but said the Qataris told him they would host it if asked. -------------- INDIVIDUAL VIEWS -------------- ¶5. (C) SYRIA: Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Fayssal Mekdad complained to Ogawa that Damascus does not get credit from the United States for the steps it is taking to help bring stability to Iraq. He claimed there are now over 10,000 Syrian soldiers on the border and that it is the Iraqi side, not the Syrians, who are not doing their part on securing the border which, he said, is impossible to completely seal given its length and the fact that many tribes and families live on both sides and routinely cross back and forth. Corruption among border officials on both sides also plays a complicating role, asserted the Syrians. Mekdad claimed that Syria has the political will to control the border and cited as positive steps since the "normalization" of relations last December as the establishment of a "hotline" between Ministries of Interior, the establishment of better communications between border patrol forces, and the launching of joint border patrols combining Iraqi and Syrian officials. ¶6. (C) In addition, Mekdad told Ogawa that Syria has tightened entry procedures for young Arab males with measures that have drawn complaints from travelers about the time it now takes to enter Syria. Terrorists crossing the border are just as much a threat to Syria as they are to Iraq, that many have been arrested, and that "hundreds" are held in Syrian custody. Syria could use more and better equipment and technology to control their border but the international community is not willing to provide such assistance, Mekdad stated. ¶7. (C) The Syrians also cited to Ogawa growing problems with the presence of Iraqi refugees, claiming that Syria now hosts over one million Iraqi refugees, some of whom are becoming problems. Ogawa said that he visited UNHCR sites in Syria during his visit and was told by UN officials that the number of refugees is troublesome. Syria is hopeful, Mekdad told Ogawa, that the United States will recognize the steps it is taking to help stabilize Iraq, but is frustrated that this has not been the case. Mekdad also said that Syria has been playing a positive role by urging Sunnis in Iraq to moderate their behavior and participate in the political process. ¶8. (C) Ogawa told Political Officer that the scope of his discussions with Mekdad had been limited to Iraq, and that other regional issues, such as Iran, Lebanon, or the Middle East Peace Process, had not been discussed. ¶9. (C) TURKEY: Ogawa observed that the Turks have a vital interest in the stability of Iraq but their focus always reverts to and is dominated by Kirkuk and the question of the PKK. Ankara expressed concerns about the number of Kurds moving into Kirkuk, is opposed to the holding of a referendum on the future of Kirkuk, and Ogawa fears that there are elements in the Turkish government who would support a military intervention if it becomes apparent Kirkuk is about to fall under Kurdish control. The Turks are unhappy that the United States does not seem to value their advice more highly and believe they could play a useful role engaging with other regional powers - Iran - that the United States is currently precluded from dealing with. ¶10. (C) SAUDI ARABIA: The Saudis, said Ogawa, are very concerned about the rise of Shia power in Iraq and the increasing influence of Iran. They lack confidence in the Maliki government and are skeptical of his ability to lead but see no other choice than to continue to lend it support, even though it would rather not do so. Ogawa holds out hope that the Saudis can be convinced to offer debt relief to Baghdad, even though a final decision on this has not yet been made, but is disappointed Riyadh will not host the ICI signing ceremony. The Saudis, like the Syrians, have concerns about border security issues and are critical of Iraqi capabilities in this field, but the problems are not as pronounced as they are with Syria. TOKYO 00000695 003 OF 003 ¶11. (C) QATAR: Ogawa's impression of the Qataris is that they are trying to play a positive role in organizing support for Iraq from others in the region. He thinks their financial resources can play a role. -------------- PERSONAL IMPRESSIONS -------------- ¶12. (C) Ambassador Ogawa concluded his readout by providing the following personal observations: -- He believes Turkey and Saudi Arabia can play an important role in fostering national reconciliation by encouraging Iraqi Sunnis to moderate their opposition and participate more constructively in the political process, that these countries can also help with border control issues, and that the United States should consider taking better advantage of Ankara and Riyadh in these fields. With regard to the Syrians, there is a need to look more closely at what they are doing and what type of role they can be convinced to play. -- Most of the countries of the region fear the rise of Iran, but they are also afraid the United States will launch military action against Tehran. The common ground is that all want to counter Iran, and more advantage should be taken of the GCC Plus Two (which excludes Iran) and the neighboring countries framework (which includes Iran) to address these concerns and take concerted action. -- Continued close cooperation between the United States and the Maliki government is crucial, given the lack of confidence neighboring leaders have in him. Recently Maliki seems to be taking firmer action to control security in Iraq, but other countries will continue to lend him support only as long as the United States does. -- The Compact With Iraq process has lost momentum and must be reinvigorated. Ogawa is frustrated that a date or location for the final meeting has not even been set yet. He believes it is critical for Iraq that improvements on the security front be made in concert with economic and reconstruction activities - both are mutually beneficial. He also noted that the Compact imposes requirements on Iraq and that pressure should be maintained on Iraq by the process to meet these commitments. ¶13. (C) Japan understands Washington's new policy toward Iraq and fully supports it, said Ogawa. Tokyo hopes the new plan will bring security to both Baghdad and other parts of the country. But the Iraq Compact can also be utilized to gain support for Iraq from other countries and a conference to finalize the Compact should be held as soon as possible. SCHIEFFER