PM FUKUDA'S VISIT TO CHINA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 005670

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH JA
SUBJECT: PM FUKUDA'S VISIT TO CHINA


Classified By: CDA Joseph R. Donovan; Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's 27-30 December
visit to China is expected to produce positive visuals, but
little in terms of substantive deliverables. PM Fukuda will
highlight the common cultural and economic interests between
the two countries, visiting a Japanese factory in Tianjin and
the birthplace of Confucius. Eleventh hour efforts to secure
agreement on the East China Sea did not succeed, according to
MOFA officials. The China trip should provide a welcome
respite for the Prime Minister, whose poll numbers have
suffered sharp declines due to ongoing scandal investigations
and the government's continued failure to account for tens of
millions of missing pension records. The visit should give
the Prime Minister an opportunity to showcase his diplomatic
talents and set a positive tone for President Hu Jintao's
expected visit to Tokyo next April. End Summary.

Fukuda in China
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2. (C) Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda departed December 27 for a
long anticipated four-day visit to China, where he will meet
with PRC leaders, visit Japanese companies in Tianjin, and
pay respects at the birthplace of Confucius in Qufu. MOFA
Foreign Policy Bureau Policy Coordination Division Director
Nobukatsu Kanehara said the visit will mark the full return
to normalcy in Japan-China relations after an extended period
of tensions created by former PM Junichiro Koizumi's visits
to Yasukuni Shrine. Kanehara credited former Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe with putting the relationship back on track with
his visit to China shortly after taking office. Abe's
willingness to host Premier Wen Jiabao over two days in Tokyo
in April, for example, contributed to the PRC's agreement to
offer the same enhanced protocol treatment for Fukuda in
Beijing.


3. (C) Kanehara said that while the atmospherics are all
positive, there would not be any major breakthroughs during
the visit. Eleventh-hour attempts by Deputy Foreign Minister
Mitoji Yabunaka to secure Chinese agreement on progress over
the East China Sea issue did not bear fruit, he noted.
Kanehara stated that there may be discussion on cooperative
work on disposing WWII-era Japanese chemical weapons in the
Nanjing area, but the two sides are still far away from a
work plan for the much larger chemical weapons stockpiles in
the northeast of the country.


4. (C) Kanehara said that Fukuda does plan to caution Chinese
leaders against over-reacting to events in Taiwan in the
lead-up to the presidential election. He noted that the
Chinese have expressed disappointment over Tokyo's
unwillingness to publicly pressure Taiwan over the planned
referendum on UN membership.

Asian Values Diplomacy
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5. (C) Chinese embassy Poloff Chen Zhiwen offered a similar
assessment of the Fukuda trip. She asserted that Fukuda's
visit to Confucius' birthplace will be welcomed by the public
in China as a gesture of recognition of the common Asian
culture shared between Japan and China. Chen noted that the
Chinese were uncomfortable with former PM Abe's focus on
"values diplomacy," which put Japan and China in different
camps. Chen added that the Fukuda trip should set a positive
tone for the expected visit by President Hu Jintao to Tokyo
next April.

Comment: Welcome Distraction
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6. (C) Prime Minister Fukuda's visit comes at a useful time
politically. The ongoing investigation into corruption at

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the Ministry of Defense (MOD) and lingering public anger over
the government's inability to fully account for millions of
missing pension records have led to double-digit drops in the
Cabinet's polling numbers. Even without a substantive
breakthrough, the China trip offers an opportunity to
showcase Fukuda's skills as a statesman and Asia policy hand.
DONOVAN