DIET EXTENDED; PASSAGE OF OEF REFUELING BILL ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 005569 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS JA SUBJECT: DIET EXTENDED; PASSAGE OF OEF REFUELING BILL ON TRACK REF: TOKYO 5503 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, reasons 1.4(b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary. The Lower House has approved extending the Diet session to January 15. The move puts the ball into the opposition court to complete deliberations on the OEF refueling bill and put the matter to a vote in the Upper House. The DPJ has stalled Diet deliberations on the bill for weeks, but many in the DPJ believe that holding the bill longer could undermine public support. Most Embassy contacts believe the opposition will vote the measure down before the end of the year, despite the constitutional authority to take no action until January 12, after which the ruling coalition has vowed to force the measure through with a two-thirds vote in the Lower House. Opposition threats to respond to use of the Lower House two-thirds override with a censure motion in the Upper House have failed to blunt the resolve of the ruling parties, despite fears on the part of junior coalition partner Komeito that such a move could force Prime Minister Fukuda to dissolve the Lower House and call a snap election. A far more immediate concern, however, is that by extending the Diet session, the ruling parties are opening the door to further opposition attacks on the LDP for defense-related scandals and mishandled pensions. End summary. ¶2. (C) The Lower House voted along party lines December 13 to extend the current extraordinary Diet session until January ¶15. Prime Minister Fukuda and coalition partner Komeito's leader Akihiro Ota agreed informally on December 11 to pursue passage of the legislation allowing resumption of Japan's Indian Ocean refueling operations in this session, rather than wait until the next ordinary session in January. The opposition opposed the extension, but was unable to stop it, despite control of the Upper House. The Constitution gives primacy to the Lower House in decisions to extend the Diet when there is disagreement between the two houses. ¶3. (C) Attention now turns to if and when the opposition will take a vote on the measure in the Upper House, and whether they will resort to a censure motion if the ruling coalition exercises the two-thirds override option. The Diet has been gridlocked over the OEF refueling bill. The bill was passed in the Lower House on November 13 and forwarded to the Upper House the following day. The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has used its control of the Upper House to delay discussion of the bill, while insisting on 41 hours of deliberations in the Upper House Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee to match exactly the time taken for deliberations in the Lower House. Committee deliberations commenced on December 4 and total 17 hours thus far. The Committee is expected to finish deliberations on the OEF bill in another two weeks, according to Embassy Diet contacts, after which the opposition must decide whether to vote the bill down or continue to hold it for the maximum allowable 60 days, until January 12. After 60 days, the bill is considered rejected by the Upper House and can be returned to the Lower House, which can override the Upper House if two-thirds vote in favor. ¶4. (C) Holding the bill for the maximum allowable 60 days is a gamble for DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, exposing him and the opposition to charges that they are not yet ready to take the reins of government whenever the next Lower House election takes place, according to Embassy media contacts. Diet staffers from both the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and DPJ have also told the Embassy that they expect the opposition to take a vote before the end of the year, to avoid the backlash of public criticism. Ozawa and the DPJ have slipped in public opinion polls since their lopsided victory in Upper House elections in July, first over Ozawa's attempt to form a "grand coalition" with the ruling parties during one-on-one meetings with Prime Minister Fukuda in late November and early December, and then again over a failed attempt to implicate Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga in TOKYO 00005569 002 OF 002 shady dealings with a former defense contractor. The DPJ has also come up short in putting forward its own legislative agenda, despite control of the Upper House, and has received little credit from the public for its cooperation with the ruling coalition in the passage of 13 minor livelihood-related bills. ¶5. (C) LDP insiders say extending the Diet session could backfire on Prime Minister Fukuda and the ruling parties, by giving the opposition parties an extra four weeks to use their new-found investigatory powers in the Upper House to continue investigations into defense-related scandals and other ruling party shortcomings. The recent announcement by Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Yoichi Masuzoe that the government will be unable to meet a commitment made by former Prime Minister Abe in August to resolve tens of millions of missing pension fund accounts held by the Social Insurance Agency by the March 2008 deadline will provide the opposition with additional ammunition, Embassy media contacts note. The LDP will also need to keep close watch over its relationship with coalition partner Komeito. Komeito leaders were extremely reluctant to extend to Diet session, fearing that the opposition would use the opportunity to censure the administration in the Upper House, thereby forcing dissolution of the Lower House and a snap election. LDP contacts have been unanimous in dismissing the impact of a censure motion, which has no legal effect on the Cabinet or the functioning of the Lower House. Komeito lawmakers, on the other hand, have made clear to the Embassy the importance of delaying the next general election until after the G8 Summit in July. ¶6. (C) The current Diet session was originally scheduled to close on November 10, before it was extended the first time for 35 days, until December 15. The new closing date of January 15 will be the latest on record for an extraordinary Diet session, although the total of 65 days for the two extensions falls far short of the record 93 days set in 1988. Only two extensions are permitted. The next ordinary session is slated to convene on January 18. In between, the DPJ and LDP will hold their annual conventions on January 16 and 17, respectively. The Diet will remain in session straight through the New Year holiday, but there will be no committee or plenary meetings between December 29 and January ¶4. SCHIEFFER