INITIAL JAPANESE REACTION TO NIE ON IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 005456 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2017 TAGS: PREL KNNP MNUC PARM IR JA SUBJECT: INITIAL JAPANESE REACTION TO NIE ON IRAN REF: STATE 162558 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4(b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Japan was surprised by the National Intelligence Estimate finding that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons development program, and has yet to draw any conclusions. Tokyo will be watching carefully how other nations react, but working level contacts believe the finding will make it more difficult for the U.S. and others to forge consensus on imposing additional sanctions on Iran or to take unilateral actions on a bilateral basis. Tehran will view this development as a diplomatic victory, a MOFA official asserted, but he is hopeful that perhaps Iran will seize on this "positive" development by reciprocating with positive steps of its own. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Japan was "greatly surprised" by the National Intelligence Estimate finding that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons development program (reftel),according to MOFA Second Middle East Division Principal Deputy Director Motosada Matano. Coming so soon after EU Envoy Javier Solana's "disastrous" talks with Iran's new nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, recent indications that Washington was in the process of seriously pushing for a third UN Security Council Resolution, and indications that even China and Russia were becoming more amenable to such a resolution, Matano said the NIE left working-level Japanese officials wondering "why" and "why now?" Embassy Tokyo POLITICAL Officer reassured Matano the report reflected the most up-to-date analysis of U.S. intelligence professionals reporting independently of any POLITICAL process or influence. Reviewing the talking points, Matano agreed that the issuance of the report did not lessen the need to remy*62I@ly to publicly respond to it. The report is still being analyzed by the government, which will also be watching carefully how other nations react. Speaking for his own division, Matano said the report was viewed as a positive development, as it will likely mean less complications in maintaining a "normal" bilateral relationship with Iran. With regard to actions against Iran, Japan has always preferred a multilateral "unanimous" approach rather than unilateral actions imposed on a bilateral basis, and Matano believes the report will make it more difficult for the U.S. and others to forge an international consensus in favor of more sanctions against Iran. In addition, he believes the report will also make it more difficult for the U.S. to take unilateral measures, and it certainly removes the possibility of military action, at least for the foreseeable future. ¶4. (C) The issuance of the report will be viewed by Iran as a diplomatic victory, said Matano. He was hopeful that this would be viewed as a positive development by Tehran and that Iran would perhaps be willing to reciprocate with positive moves of its own. Cautioning that no decisions have yet been made, Matano speculated that Japan's approach to Iran would be to encourage it to capitalize on this development with positive moves of its own. When asked, Matano said there has been no high-level contact between Japan and Iran since the release of the report. ¶5. (U) Japanese press coverage of the NIE finding is reported septel. Post will continue to gauge official and public reaction to the NIE finding. SCHIEFFER