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| Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07TOKYO5268 | 2007-11-16 08:17:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Tokyo |
Cable title:
JAPAN WATCHING CLOSELY SITUATION IN PAKISTAN
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1. (C) SUMMARY: Japan was caught by surprise by Pakistan's declaration of a state of emergency only days after Foreign Minister Koumura announced significant increases in ODA to that country. As a result, he was forced to announce Japan will "reconsider" this decision in light of recent events. MOFA officials deny that the decision to plus up aid was linked in any way to Japan's cessation of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) refueling operations, but was rather made to carry through on a commitment made by former Prime Minister Abe to President Bush to help do more for Pakistan. Japan is concerned by the imposition of a state of emergency and is urging that it be lifted. Despite Koumura's second statement, no decision has been taken to cut any existing aid to Pakistan, as Japan recognizes Pakistan's key role as a frontier state in the war on terror and a country which has, until recently, been making progress on the democracy front. END SUMMARY. -------------------------- - INCREASE IN AID TO PAKISTAN ANNOUNCED, THEN... -------------------------- - 2. (C) Foreign Minister Koumura told a Japanese House of Representative committee October 31 that Japan was considering a large increase in economic assistance to Pakistan. Three days later, President Musharraf declared a state of emergency, which, according to MOFA Southwest Asia Division Principal Deputy Director Masaki Ishikawa, took Tokyo by surprise. Japan had heard rumors of the impending order, but apparently concluded that Musharraf would back down at the last minute, as he had last September. The imposition of a state of emergency put FM Koumura on the spot, and he subsequently announced November 13 that Japan would reconsider its aid to Pakistan if the democratization process were to deteriorate further. 3. (C) Press reports that the reasons for the announced increase in aid to Pakistan were to offset the withdrawal of Maritime Self Defense refueling vessels from OEF were untrue, according to MOFA International Cooperation Bureau Deputy Director Hitomi Sato. His remark was echoed by Ishikawa, who told Embassy Political Officer that the decision to increase aid to Pakistan was made to fulfill a commitment Prime Minister Abe had made to President Bush to help do more to support Pakistan. Ishikawa explained that Japan views Pakistan as a "frontier state" in the international war on terror and as a country that until recently has been making positive progress on the democratization front. (NOTE: For more than six months, MOFA and USAID have been working together with the Pakistan Government to prepare for upcoming elections, having procured ballot boxes, working on voter education campaigns with NGOs and local groups, and providing technical assistance to the numerous political parties involved. END NOTE.) -------------------------- JAPAN DISAPPOINTED BY STATE OF EMERGENCY -------------------------- 4. (C) Tokyo views the imposition of a state of emergency as a troubling step backwards, said Ishikawa, and is publicly urging Pakistan to lift it immediately and to return the country on the path to democracy. However, said Ishikawa, Japan is not explicitly calling for the release of detainees, because it believes that to do so would seem to be too much interference in Pakistan's domestic and security affairs. Ishikawa confided that personally he believes many of the TOKYO 00005268 002 OF 002 judges detained were, in fact, engaging in partisan political activities rather than simply adjudicating the law on an objective basis. In addition, some within MOFA find Pakistan's reason for detaining Benizir Bhutto - to protect her from terrorists - as plausible. -------------------------- NO DECISION TO CUT AID -------------------------- 5. (C) Despite Japan's concern about recent events in Pakistan, no firm decision has been made to cut or withhold aid. Rather, Japan will withhold the additional aid funding it had earmarked "for awhile" to monitor developments, MOFA Director General for International Cooperation Koro Bessho told Embassy Tokyo EMIN. In addition, MOFA First Country Assistance Planning Director Honsei told AIDCOUNS that, in any case, existing ODA funds for Pakistan will not be cut. It is only the future "significant" increase in funds that FM Koumura mentioned that will be reconsidered if the situation does not improve. Ishikawa confirmed this, pointing out that regardless of what happens, Japan recognizes Pakistan's critical strategic position in the war on terror and will not cut existing humanitarian programs that directly benefit the poor and impoverished. He also noted that despite FM Koumura's public statement about "reconsidering" assistance, no formal message has been delivered to the Pakistanis threatening a cut in aid. -------------------------- STILL ANTICIPATING ELECTIONS -------------------------- 6. (C) At the same time it is calling for Pakistan to rescind the state of emergency, Japan is still preparing for the upcoming elections. Press reports announced today that MOFA is planning to deploy a team of election observers when elections do take place. The monitoring team will likely be made up of a dozen or so MOFA officials who will augment Japanese Embassy staff members already posted in Islamabad. 7. (C) In another bit of discouraging news for Japanese assistance to Pakistan, press reports today also indicate that a girls school in Adina which was built by the Japanese International Cooperation Agency was the victim of a bomb attack which damaged its walls and windows. The school had recently received threatening letters from the Taliban concerning the attire worn by the girls and instructing parents to stop sending their daughters to the school. The press reports made no mention of any injuries. -------------------------- COMMENT -------------------------- 8. (C) Japan seems poised to continue to provide support to Pakistan, but is deeply troubled by the recent turn of events. It will continue to monitor the situation and decisions to increase funding might suffer should conditions worsen. Even so, it is likely humanitarian aid programs will continue unhindered. DONOVAN |