Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TOKYO5219
2007-11-13 05:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:
KOMEITO LAWMAKER ANALYZES OZAWA'S STRATEGY, DIET
VZCZCXRO4309 OO RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNH DE RUEHKO #5219/01 3170518 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 130518Z NOV 07 FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9489 INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING IMMEDIATE 0089 RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 2435 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL IMMEDIATE 6145 RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA IMMEDIATE 4362 RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA IMMEDIATE 6767 RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE IMMEDIATE 8029 RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO IMMEDIATE 5032 RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI IMMEDIATE 6755 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE RUEATRS/TREASURY DEPT WASHDC IMMEDIATE RHMFISS/USFJ IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 005219
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: KOMEITO LAWMAKER ANALYZES OZAWA'S STRATEGY, DIET
MECHANICS
Classified By: Charge Joe Donovan, reasons 1.4(b),(d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 005219
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: KOMEITO LAWMAKER ANALYZES OZAWA'S STRATEGY, DIET
MECHANICS
Classified By: Charge Joe Donovan, reasons 1.4(b),(d).
1. (C) Summary. Ichiro Ozawa may have dealt his own DPJ a
lasting body blow, Komeito Lower House Diet member Otohiko
Endo told the Embassy on November 8, but his resignation and
return have opened the door for policy discussions with the
ruling coalition. Endo, a senior member of the Komeito, does
not anticipate dissolution of the Lower House and a snap
election this year, but is not convinced that Ozawa won't
still form a new party by December and attempt to form an
expanded coalition with the LDP and Komeito. From Endo's
perspective, a grand coalition incorporating the DPJ would
only weaken Komeito's prospects in the next election.
Despite the controversy over the Prime Minister's two
meetings with Ozawa, however, Komeito remains firmly behind
Prime Minister Fukuda. With the extension of the Diet
session to December 15, Endo is certain the ruling parties
can pass new OEF legislation, even if it means exercising the
heretofore never used option to override the Upper House.
End summary.
Ozawa the Fundamentalist Deals DPJ a Lasting Body Blow
-------------- --------------
2. (C) Embassy Tokyo Political Minister Counselor Meserve met
with junior coalition partner Komeito senior lawmaker Otohiko
Endo on November 8 to discuss recent political developments.
Endo, a five-term Lower House Diet member representing the
North Kanto proportional voting bloc, noted that he was quite
familiar with main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)
leader Ichiro Ozawa, having worked closely with him when both
were with the New Frontier Party (NFP) in the mid-1990s.
Viewed through the lens of Ozawa's personality, he said,
Ozawa had successfully preserved his options by declaring and
then withdrawing his resignation from the DPJ. At this
point, he could either remain as leader of the DPJ, or form a
new party and go into coalition with the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito coalition.
3. (C) Endo did not make any prediction as to whether Ozawa
would actually leave the DPJ, but thought he would probably
make a decision in December, the deadline for political
parties to submit lists of members and claim eligibility for
public funding. Endo noted that Ozawa had dissolved both the
NFP and Jiyuto in the month of December, in part to qualify
for government subsidies that would otherwise not have been
available until the following year. Endo, laughing, said
Ozawa has a genius for calculating financial gain. He
estimated that Ozawa already has 2.5 billion yen in political
funds. He believes Ozawa is currently pondering how to
maximize his influence, while protecting his interests.
4. (C) Endo described Ozawa as a "fundamentalist," and
explained the opposition leader's political principles as
follows. For Ozawa, politics is all about power and logic,
not warm human relations. Rather than being inclusive, in
order to maximize support, Ozawa completely and forever
excludes those who have opposed him even once. Ozawa's
preference is for "surprise attacks," as opposed to a
"regular siege." While successful political strategists
usually try to alternate between well-planned "sieges" and
"surprise attacks," Ozawa's reliance on repeated surprise
attacks to make up for ill-planned sieges upsets his
strategic balance, Endo explained.
5. (C) Ozawa's guiding principles are evident in his recent
behavior, Endo continued. Ozawa grew angry and offered to
resign from the DPJ when fellow party members rejected his
proposal to enter into a grand coalition with the LDP, a
response that he obviously had not expected. When he met
with this unanticipated opposition after not laying the
groundwork within his own party before the second meeting
with the Prime Minister -- what Endo defined as a "regular
siege" -- Ozawa opted for the "surprise attack" of announcing
his sudden resignation as party leader.
TOKYO 00005219 002 OF 003
6. (C) Noting the mix of ideologies among its members, Endo
described the DPJ as less a political party than an "election
mutual assistance group." He described the political
confusion caused by Ozawa this time as a "body blow of
lasting effect" to the DPJ.
But Opens the Door to Policy Discussions
--------------
7. (C) Policy consultations between the ruling coalition and
the DPJ on individual issues are a much more realistic option
than a grand coalition, Endo noted, at least in the current
deadlocked Diet session. Taking the current situation as an
opportunity, he added, the coalition and the opposition
should hold open and frank discussions on issues such as OEF
refueling, the pension system, and tax reform.
Grand Coalition a Bad Deal for Komeito
--------------
8. (C) Komeito, as a party, does not have a position on the
grand coalition idea, Endo said, but he does not consider a
grand coalition to be very beneficial for the Komeito, absent
some possibility of reverting to some sort of multiple-seat
electoral district system. Formation of a grand coalition
under the current electoral system would require a system for
coordinating who runs in which electoral district.
OEF Bill Likely to Pass; Override an Option
--------------
9. (C) Endo was certain new legislation to authorize
Self-Defense Forces (SDF) refueling efforts in support of
Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) would pass the Lower House,
but could not predict what will happen in the Upper House.
He hoped the Upper House would begin discussing the bill by
the time Prime Minister Fukuda returns from his trip to the
United States. The current Diet session, Endo confirmed, is
to be extended until December 15, the longest they could go
without cutting into the budget compilation process. The
ruling parties are hoping that the extension will give the
DPJ sufficient time to discuss the bill in the Upper House,
although he expects the DPJ to swiftly reject it.
10. (C) If that happens, Endo believes, the ruling coalition
will likely use their two-thirds majority in the Lower House
to override the Upper House rejection of the bill and pass it
into law. If the ruling parties decide against exercising
the override option, it will only be because they fear that a
censure motion by the opposition parties in the Upper House
could lead to dissolution of the Lower House. The ruling
parties are still discussing the risks associated with the
override vote, Endo noted, but he is convinced that it is in
Japan's national interest to pass the OEF bill. He worries,
however, that the recent string of defense-related scandals
are damaging public support for the refueling mission.
No Lower House Dissolution Anytime Soon
--------------
11. (C) Despite the current political chaos, Endo does not
believe the Lower House will be dissolved at this time,
regardless of what happens with the OEF legislation. With
the ruling coalition already certain to lose seats in the
Lower House even prior to recent events, it makes no sense
for Prime Minister Fukuda to call an election when things are
so unstable and give up the two-thirds majority it currently
enjoys.
Komeito Puts Faith in Fukuda
--------------
12. (C) Prime Minister Fukuda is highly regarded by Komeito,
Endo asserted. Quoting a Japanese proverb, "soft and fair go
far," he stated his opinion that Fukuda will be able to
maintain strong leadership, while steadily getting the LDP
TOKYO 00005219 003 OF 003
"back into shape." "Even if Fukuda is flying low now," he
added, "in the end he will end up flying high."
DONOVAN
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: KOMEITO LAWMAKER ANALYZES OZAWA'S STRATEGY, DIET
MECHANICS
Classified By: Charge Joe Donovan, reasons 1.4(b),(d).
1. (C) Summary. Ichiro Ozawa may have dealt his own DPJ a
lasting body blow, Komeito Lower House Diet member Otohiko
Endo told the Embassy on November 8, but his resignation and
return have opened the door for policy discussions with the
ruling coalition. Endo, a senior member of the Komeito, does
not anticipate dissolution of the Lower House and a snap
election this year, but is not convinced that Ozawa won't
still form a new party by December and attempt to form an
expanded coalition with the LDP and Komeito. From Endo's
perspective, a grand coalition incorporating the DPJ would
only weaken Komeito's prospects in the next election.
Despite the controversy over the Prime Minister's two
meetings with Ozawa, however, Komeito remains firmly behind
Prime Minister Fukuda. With the extension of the Diet
session to December 15, Endo is certain the ruling parties
can pass new OEF legislation, even if it means exercising the
heretofore never used option to override the Upper House.
End summary.
Ozawa the Fundamentalist Deals DPJ a Lasting Body Blow
-------------- --------------
2. (C) Embassy Tokyo Political Minister Counselor Meserve met
with junior coalition partner Komeito senior lawmaker Otohiko
Endo on November 8 to discuss recent political developments.
Endo, a five-term Lower House Diet member representing the
North Kanto proportional voting bloc, noted that he was quite
familiar with main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)
leader Ichiro Ozawa, having worked closely with him when both
were with the New Frontier Party (NFP) in the mid-1990s.
Viewed through the lens of Ozawa's personality, he said,
Ozawa had successfully preserved his options by declaring and
then withdrawing his resignation from the DPJ. At this
point, he could either remain as leader of the DPJ, or form a
new party and go into coalition with the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito coalition.
3. (C) Endo did not make any prediction as to whether Ozawa
would actually leave the DPJ, but thought he would probably
make a decision in December, the deadline for political
parties to submit lists of members and claim eligibility for
public funding. Endo noted that Ozawa had dissolved both the
NFP and Jiyuto in the month of December, in part to qualify
for government subsidies that would otherwise not have been
available until the following year. Endo, laughing, said
Ozawa has a genius for calculating financial gain. He
estimated that Ozawa already has 2.5 billion yen in political
funds. He believes Ozawa is currently pondering how to
maximize his influence, while protecting his interests.
4. (C) Endo described Ozawa as a "fundamentalist," and
explained the opposition leader's political principles as
follows. For Ozawa, politics is all about power and logic,
not warm human relations. Rather than being inclusive, in
order to maximize support, Ozawa completely and forever
excludes those who have opposed him even once. Ozawa's
preference is for "surprise attacks," as opposed to a
"regular siege." While successful political strategists
usually try to alternate between well-planned "sieges" and
"surprise attacks," Ozawa's reliance on repeated surprise
attacks to make up for ill-planned sieges upsets his
strategic balance, Endo explained.
5. (C) Ozawa's guiding principles are evident in his recent
behavior, Endo continued. Ozawa grew angry and offered to
resign from the DPJ when fellow party members rejected his
proposal to enter into a grand coalition with the LDP, a
response that he obviously had not expected. When he met
with this unanticipated opposition after not laying the
groundwork within his own party before the second meeting
with the Prime Minister -- what Endo defined as a "regular
siege" -- Ozawa opted for the "surprise attack" of announcing
his sudden resignation as party leader.
TOKYO 00005219 002 OF 003
6. (C) Noting the mix of ideologies among its members, Endo
described the DPJ as less a political party than an "election
mutual assistance group." He described the political
confusion caused by Ozawa this time as a "body blow of
lasting effect" to the DPJ.
But Opens the Door to Policy Discussions
--------------
7. (C) Policy consultations between the ruling coalition and
the DPJ on individual issues are a much more realistic option
than a grand coalition, Endo noted, at least in the current
deadlocked Diet session. Taking the current situation as an
opportunity, he added, the coalition and the opposition
should hold open and frank discussions on issues such as OEF
refueling, the pension system, and tax reform.
Grand Coalition a Bad Deal for Komeito
--------------
8. (C) Komeito, as a party, does not have a position on the
grand coalition idea, Endo said, but he does not consider a
grand coalition to be very beneficial for the Komeito, absent
some possibility of reverting to some sort of multiple-seat
electoral district system. Formation of a grand coalition
under the current electoral system would require a system for
coordinating who runs in which electoral district.
OEF Bill Likely to Pass; Override an Option
--------------
9. (C) Endo was certain new legislation to authorize
Self-Defense Forces (SDF) refueling efforts in support of
Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) would pass the Lower House,
but could not predict what will happen in the Upper House.
He hoped the Upper House would begin discussing the bill by
the time Prime Minister Fukuda returns from his trip to the
United States. The current Diet session, Endo confirmed, is
to be extended until December 15, the longest they could go
without cutting into the budget compilation process. The
ruling parties are hoping that the extension will give the
DPJ sufficient time to discuss the bill in the Upper House,
although he expects the DPJ to swiftly reject it.
10. (C) If that happens, Endo believes, the ruling coalition
will likely use their two-thirds majority in the Lower House
to override the Upper House rejection of the bill and pass it
into law. If the ruling parties decide against exercising
the override option, it will only be because they fear that a
censure motion by the opposition parties in the Upper House
could lead to dissolution of the Lower House. The ruling
parties are still discussing the risks associated with the
override vote, Endo noted, but he is convinced that it is in
Japan's national interest to pass the OEF bill. He worries,
however, that the recent string of defense-related scandals
are damaging public support for the refueling mission.
No Lower House Dissolution Anytime Soon
--------------
11. (C) Despite the current political chaos, Endo does not
believe the Lower House will be dissolved at this time,
regardless of what happens with the OEF legislation. With
the ruling coalition already certain to lose seats in the
Lower House even prior to recent events, it makes no sense
for Prime Minister Fukuda to call an election when things are
so unstable and give up the two-thirds majority it currently
enjoys.
Komeito Puts Faith in Fukuda
--------------
12. (C) Prime Minister Fukuda is highly regarded by Komeito,
Endo asserted. Quoting a Japanese proverb, "soft and fair go
far," he stated his opinion that Fukuda will be able to
maintain strong leadership, while steadily getting the LDP
TOKYO 00005219 003 OF 003
"back into shape." "Even if Fukuda is flying low now," he
added, "in the end he will end up flying high."
DONOVAN