GOVERNOR FEELING PRESSURE ON FUTENMA MOVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 005134 SIPDIS SIPDIS MESSAGE SENT ON BEHALF OF AMCONSUL NAHA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017 TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV SUBJECT: GOVERNOR FEELING PRESSURE ON FUTENMA MOVE Classified By: Classified by Consul General Kevin K. Maher for Reason 1 .4 b, d. ¶1. (C) Consul General Maher was in Kanucha, the resort development directly across the bay from the Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF) site at Camp Schwab, November 1 and 2 to attend an ""Okinawa Kariyushi Wear Fashion"" promotion co-chaired by former Defense Minister Yuriko KOIKE. He took the opportunity to meet for dinner with Kanucha Bay Resort Company owner and Chairman Takeharu SHIRAISHI and former Nago City Mayor Tetsuya HIGA. Higa is the former mayor who agreed to accept the original SACO plan for relocation of Futenma to Camp Schwab, which is located in Nago City. Higa is still influential in Nago. Shiraishi is a close advisor and financial supporter of Okinawa Governor Nakaima. Nago Ready to Cave -------------- ¶2. (C) Both Shiraishi and Higa made it clear that the Nago side is ready to accept the current agreed FRF plan, without the revisions that Governor Nakaima is calling for. They are very concerned that further lack of cooperation from the Governor puts the GOJ realignment subsidies at risk for the next Japan fiscal year, so it appears to us that the GOJ's hard line position on the budget is working. Shiraishi also told Consul General that reports of Consul General,s October 31 local press conference, which noted that if the Governor were in fact to refuse to permit the landfill work in 2009 then it would mean an end to the whole realignment package, had ""sounded an alarm"" in Nago. Current Nago Mayor Shimabukuro would like the Governor to say he supports the plan, but Shimabukuro is not yet willing to show leadership by himself saying he supports the plan prior to the Governor doing so. In short, they both want the other to go first. Governor Nakaima Close -------------- ¶3. (C) Shiraishi says he will travel to Tokyo with the Governor November 6 in preparation for the November 7 ""FRF Consultative Committee"" meeting. Shiraishi told Consul General that he is strongly advising the Governor to cooperate with the GOJ on the FRF Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA),as are others. What the Governor needs, he said, are ""some pleasant words"" from the Government about fully taking Okinawa views into account. Having said that, Shiraishi noted that at the November 7 consultative meeting both sides will again lay out their current positions. So we can expect the Governor to take a hard line on the TOKYO 00005134 002 OF 004 need for revision of the FRF plan (moving the runways 200 meters to the ocean),and can expect the GOJ to repeat its position that the Governor should cooperate with the already underway EIA, and that only if the EIA demonstrates some scientific reason to adjust the runways should that be done. But by the December deadline for the Governor's comments under the EIA procedures, he said, the Governor will be cooperative in officially stating his views on the assessment. ¶4. (C) COMMENT. Shiraishi's views reflect what we have been hearing elsewhere in Okinawa. The Governor is increasingly isolated in his stubborn insistence that the GOJ agree to revise the FRF plan prior to his cooperation with the EIA procedures. His recent press statements show that he is becoming more flexible in his verbiage, which appears to us to be an attempt on his part to find a way out of his unfortunate campaign promise that the FRF plan must be revised in order for him to support it. In light of this, it seems the GOJ's best approach would be to continue to take a hard line with the Governor. The U.S. line should continue to be that we are expecting the realignment plan to be implemented as agreed, without any revisions. A One-Term Governor -------------- ¶5. (C) When Consul General asked Shiraishi about the Governor's HEALTH in light of his ""mild stroke"" in June, Shiraishi said he and all other LDP leaders in Okinawa are advising the Governor he must not run for a second term in 2010. Even if his HEALTH is not a problem at that time, he would be seen as an aged and infirm candidate. The problem, Shiraishi said, is that at the moment the LDP leadership has no idea who would be a good candidate. Their preference would be the very popular Lower House Diet Member Kozauro NISHIME (younger brother of the recently defeated Upper House Dietmember, and son of a former long-term and very popular Governor). But Nishime has made it clear several times he is not interested in the position and prefers to remain in Tokyo as a Dietmember. Shiraishi even went so far as to ask if the Consulate General could come up with a good suggestion for a candidate. COMMENTS BY FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER KOIKE -------------- -------------- Former Vice Minister Moriya -------------- ¶6. (C) Consul General also had lunch November 2 with former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike at Kanucha. She explained that TOKYO 00005134 003 OF 004 her feud with former Defense Vice Minister Moriya had nothing to do with policy towards Okinawa, since she agreed with his hard-line approach, and they had worked Okinawa well together playing ""good cop, bad cop."" Their problem, she said, was over Moriya's empire building and his refusal to recognize the Minister as his boss. The final straw was Moriya's scandal involving the Yamada Yoko company. There had been rumors of this for quite a while, but while she was Minister it became clear this was a real problem, so she decided the time was ripe to remove him. Koike told the Consul General it is certain that once the Diet finishes questioning Moriya, he will be arrested. The police are just waiting for the Diet to finish with him, she said. FRF -------------- ¶7. (C) With respect to FRF, Koike said she also believes Governor Nakaima will be cooperative with the EIA, although it will take another couple of rounds of Consultative Committee meetings. However, she admitted that as Minister she had given the Governor an informal ""promise"" that after the EIA is completed, Tokyo will agree to slide the runway 50 meters more towards the ocean. But this can only come after the EIA, because if the GOJ were to agree to this now, the Governor would just ask for more. The Consul General explained to Koike our aversion to revising the plan at all (the risk of breaking the consensus and making the overall realignment package impossible to implement). Consul General asked her what happens if there were no scientific reasons resulting from the EIA to justify any revision to the runway relocation. She responded ""there will be a different administration by 2009, so it doesn't matter what we've promised him."" ¶8. (C) COMMENT: It concerns us here if the Governor is continuing to get this kind of informal wink on revising the plan from the current GOJ Cabinet. We had heard rumors that Koike had made such a promise, and former Defense Minister Kyuma's repeated statements on flexibility to revise the plan also led the Governor to believe he could demand revisions to the realignment plan. Koike told Consul General that Governor Nakaima and Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura have a good channel of communication SIPDIS through former METI colleagues. Consul General,s recommendation is that we continue to let Machimura know our view that this is not the TOKYO 00005134 004 OF 004 time to be showing Governor Nakaima any flexibility on revising the FRF plan, although the GOJ does need to be polite to him. SCHIEFFER