FUKUDA WINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 004419 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON JA SUBJECT: FUKUDA WINS REF: A. TOKYO 4408 ¶B. TOKYO 4282 ¶C. EMBASSY TOKYO-OPS TELCON - SEPTEMBER 23 TOKYO 00004419 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: AMBASSADOR J. THOMAS SCHIEFFER, REASONS 1.4(B),(D). ¶1. (C) Summary. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda defeated former Foreign Minister Taro Aso to win the LDP presidency by a comfortable margin on September 23. The generally conservative, pro-U.S. Fukuda garnered 330 of 528 votes cast, showing wide support among both LDP lawmakers and prefectural chapter members. Fukuda will be elected Prime Minister on September 25, and announce his Cabinet the same day. He is expected to make few changes to the current lineup. He filled senior party posts on September 24, appointing faction leaders Bunmei Ibuki and Sadakazu Tanigaki as Secretary General and Chair of the Policy Affairs Research Council. The Ibuki appointment is something of a surprise. He reappointed another faction leader, Toshihiro Nikai, as Chair of the party's General Affairs Council. His personnel choices reflect his desire to restore party unity and regain public confidence after losing control of the Upper House to the opposition in July elections. End Summary. -------------- Fukuda Wins Easily, but Aso Shows Strong Support in the "Popular" Vote -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda won a comfortable victory over Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) General Secretary Taro Aso in the September 23 LDP presidential election (Ref A),taking nearly 63 percent of the vote. Fukuda garnered 330 out of 528 total votes cast. One Diet member vote was declared invalid. While Fukuda's margin of victory among LDP lawmakers was a decisive 254 out of 387 votes, however, Aso showed surprising strength among the LDP prefectural rank and file. Fukuda took 76 of the total 141 prefectural votes, but Aso actually scored 3,000 more votes than Fukuda in the 35 prefectures that put the matter to a popular vote. ¶3. (C) Fukuda has been elected to serve out the remainder of Prime Minister Abe's LDP Presidential term, which expires in September 2009, the same month that elections are due for the Lower House. Embassy contacts and the press are divided on whether Fukuda will remain in office for the entire two years, or merely serve a caretaker role. His future will depend in large part on his ability to unite the party, win the support of the public for his legislative agenda, and counter attempts by the opposition to bring about an early dissolution of the Lower House. Aso has already pledged his support. -------------- Fukuda to be Elected PM and Name Cabinet on September 25; Few Surprises Expected -------------- ¶4. (C) Fukuda will be elected Prime Minister at a plenary session of the House of Representatives on September 25, due to the ruling coalition's overwhelming majority in the lower chamber. The opposition parties, which gained control of the House of Councillors in July elections, have promised to elect Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) leader Ichiro Ozawa as the choice of the upper chamber. A split result between the two houses requires that the Diet convene a conference committee to seek to resolve the issue, but the Constitution gives final say to the House of Representatives. The Diet rules provide opportunities for the opposition parties to stall the proceedings, but Embassy contacts in the DPJ say they recognize the futility of fighting over the election of the Prime Minister and do not want to appear obstructionist to the public. TOKYO 00004419 002.2 OF 004 ¶5. (C) Fukuda has said he will announce his new Cabinet after he is elected Prime Minister. He has given indications several times in the press that he does not plan major changes to the current Cabinet, at least not before the extraordinary Diet session ends sometime in November or December. LDP and media contacts have told the Embassy that they expect few changes. Fukuda will make his opening policy speech in both houses of the Diet on September 28, followed by interpellations from October 1 to 3. The Diet session will need to be extended beyond its current closing date of November 10 in order to accommodate deliberations on anti-terror legislation to authorize the continuation of Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) refueling efforts in the Indian Ocean (Ref B). -------------- New LDP Executives All Faction Leaders -------------- ¶6. (C) On September 24, Fukuda named faction leaders Bunmei Ibuki, Sadakazu Tanigaki, Toshihiro Nikai, and Makoto Koga to key LDP leadership positions -- Ibuki as Secretary General; Tanigaki as Chair of the Policy Affairs Research Council; Nikai to remain in his position as Chair of the General Affairs Council; and Koga, reportedly at his own request, as Director General of the Elections Strategy Bureau. All four were early and strong supporters of Fukuda's campaign. Tadamori Oshima and Hiroyuki Hosoda have been retained as Diet Affairs Chair and Acting Secretary General, respectively. The new party executives were scheduled to meet later in the day with Komeito party leaders to reaffirm the continuation of the coalition government. ¶7. (C) An Embassy contact in the media called Tanigaki and the others a "good fit" for Fukuda, given their similar ideological stances. He expressed surprise, however, at the appointment of Ibuki, currently Minister of Education. He speculated that Fukuda may have wanted to find a spot in the LDP hierarchy for the relatively influential faction leader in order to get him out of the Cabinet, where some contacts say recurrent scandal allegations could have left him vulnerable to an opposition-led inquiry. -------------- -- MSDF Deployment, Pensions, Economic Disparities Expected to Dominate Agenda -------------- -- ¶8. (C) In a statement several hours after the election results were announced, Fukuda said the LDP is in a state of crisis ("konran") and promised to work hard to regain public confidence and revive the party. In a survey conducted among LDP prefectural chapter executives a week before the election, 31 of 47 chapters said they wanted the new Prime Minister to focus on narrowing regional economic disparities, and 32 chapters called for increased spending on public works projects. These issues are particularly sensitive in rural constituencies, where the LDP suffered its biggest losses in the July 31 Upper House election and public works spending is seen by many as the primary means for revitalizing local economies. Fukuda spoke out during the brief LDP presidential campaign in support of continuing the structural reforms begun by former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, but will face tension within the party over the appropriate balance between fiscal reconstruction and public spending. ¶9. (C) In response to a question concerning the most urgent foreign policy question facing the new administration, 42 LDP prefectural chapters gave the new Prime Minister a mandate to push anti-terror measures through the current Diet session, even if it means using the ruling coalition's two-thirds majority in the Lower House to override opposition in the Upper House. Fukuda has made clear he intends to pass TOKYO 00004419 003.2 OF 004 anti-terror legislation to continue Japan's support for Operation Enduring Freedom. In a nod to the opposition majority in the Upper House, Fukuda has labeled talks with the DPJ on key legislation "indispensable." -------------- Opposition, Press See Election as LDP Backsliding on Reform -------------- ¶10. (C) Lawmakers from the main opposition DPJ, as well as the Socialist and Communist parties, have been quick to criticize Fukuda's election, calling it a return to "backroom" politics and a sign that the LDP is not serious about dealing with the rash of recent "politics and money" scandals. Opposition leaders immediately called on Fukuda to dissolve the Lower House and call new elections, to give the public a chance to voice their opinion on his new administration. A number of editorials and Op-ed pieces have portrayed Fukuda's election as a an indication that LDP faction leaders are trying to regain influence, after six-plus years of top-down leadership from Prime Ministers Koizumi and Abe, during which senior LDP lawmakers felt excluded from the decision-making process. They point to the speed with which the factions rallied around Fukuda in the two days before he officially announced his candidacy to make their case. Some media are speculating that larger than expected support for Aso in the LDP presidential race represents the strong desire among a sizable number of LDP members to prevent a return to the factional LDP politics of the past, although Aso is himself tainted by his role in bringing back postal rebel Takeo Hiranuma. ¶11. (C) Embassy contacts say the election of Fukuda sends the message that the party, and the public, are looking for stability and maturity, although some clearly acknowledge the role of factional in-fighting. -------------- - Fukuda an Experienced Hand, Despite Late Start -------------- - ¶12. (C) Yasuo Fukuda, 71, soon to become Japan's 58th Prime Minister, is a six-term Lower House Diet member, representing Gunma 4 district. He served as Chief Cabinet Secretary for a record 1,289 days during the Mori and Koizumi administrations, but resigned from the job in 2004, over failure to pay a portion of his public pension premiums. First elected in 1990, at the age of 53, the generally conservative, pro-U.S. Fukuda actually entered politics much earlier, as personal secretary to his father, Takeo Fukuda, Japan's 42nd Prime Minister. Before that, he worked as an oil company executive for 17 years, including several years in the United States. When he becomes Prime Minister on September 25, he will become the first son of a Prime Minister to be elected to the top post in Japan. Both will have reached the Prime Minister's office at the same age. -------------- Abe Absent From Vote -------------- ¶13. (C) Prime Minister Abe voted absentee from his hospital bed in the September 23 LDP election, indicating to aides that he would support Fukuda. Prior to the election, he issued a statement apologizing for the political vacuum created by his unexpected resignation. It does not appear at this time that he will attend the Diet session on September 25, at which he and his cabinet are due to resign en masse to make way for Fukuda's election and appointment of a new cabinet. His aides have told the press that he wants a chance to speak to the public regarding his medical condition, the exact nature of which remains undisclosed, but is awaiting clearance from his doctors. TOKYO 00004419 004.2 OF 004 Schieffer