DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09/13/07

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 004281 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09/13/07 Index: (1) Poll on ABE cabinet's job performance (2) Many unanswered questions about Abe's explanation for resignation (3) Prime Minister ABE quits but what will be the fate of structural reforms? Challenge is to strike balance with effort to correct social disparities: CEFP meeting cancelled on short notice (4) Emergency roundtable on Prime Minister Abe's decision to step down -- a political crisis that requires public vote (Part 1) (5) Collapse of ABE administration (Part 1): ABE lacks competence required of prime minister (6) Prime Minister ABE to be hospitalized for at least 3-4 days at Keio Hospital (7) Protection of lifeline for oil transport ARTICLES: (1) Poll on ABE cabinet's job performance MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) September 13, 2007 Questions & Answers (T = total; P = previous; M = male; F = female) Q: What do you think is needed for prime minister? T P M F Experience 5 7 4 Decisiveness 28 29 27 International sensibility 2 2 2 Popularity 1 1 1 Ability to translate policy measures into action 30 29 31 Foresight 18 18 17 Ability to coordinate 6 5 6 Personal character 2 2 2 Ethics 3 3 3 Youthfulness 1 1 1 Q: Do you appreciate the ABE government over the past year? T P M F Yes 22 21 23 No 74 76 71 Q: What do you think was good about what Prime Minister ABE has done? T P M F Enacted the National Referendum Law that stipulated procedures for constitutional revision 7 9 5 Made efforts for education reform, such as revising the Fundamentals of Education Law 15 14 16 Improved relations with China and South Korea 13 16 10 Reformed the public service system, such as restricting golden TOKYO 00004281 002 OF 010 parachuting 24 24 24 Response to the government's pension record-keeping flaws 23 20 25 Q: What do you think was wrong about what Prime Minister ABE has done? T P M F Enacted the National Referendum Law that stipulated procedures for constitutional revision 7 8 7 Made efforts for education reform, such as revising the Fundamentals of Education Law 4 4 4 Reinstated postal rebels to the LDP 13 15 11 Response to political scandals over money and gaffes from his cabinet ministers 44 43 45 Stayed on after the LDP's route in this July's election for the House of Councillors 20 23 18 Q: The Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) garnered 60 seats in this July's election for the House of Councillors and took great strides. Do you think it's all right to entrust the DPJ with the reins of government? T P M F Yes 43 52 36 No 50 45 54 (Note) Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. "No answer" omitted. Polling methodology: The survey was conducted across the nation over a period of three days, Sept. 7-9, on a face-to-face basis. A total of 4,575 persons were chosen from among men and women aged 20 and over as of Sept. 30 at 300 locations on a stratified two-stage random sampling basis for interviews. Answers were obtained from 2,516 persons (55 PERCENT ). (2) Many unanswered questions about Abe's explanation for resignation ASAHI (Page 2) (Full) September 13, 2007 There are some questions about Prime Minister SHINZO Abe's reason for his decision to resign, which he explained in a press conference yesterday. There seemed to be prospects for an extension of the Maritime Self-Defense Force's (MSDF) refueling services, even if he had not resigned. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will not agree to an extension of the MSDF refueling operation even after he steps down. He cited the devastating defeat in the July House of Councillors election as a reason. However, it is makes no sense at all that he announced his intention to resign two days after he had expressed his determination to stay in office in his policy speech, instead of immediately after the Upper House election. Abe stressed that the MSDF mission in the Indian Ocean must continue at any cost. He explained that he would change the situation since DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa snubbed his request for a meeting. However, the government and ruling coalition had decided to submit new legislation to limit the MSDF activities to refueling and supplying water to allied vessels in the Indian Ocean. Even if the legislation is voted down at the Upper House, which is controlled by TOKYO 00004281 003 OF 010 the opposition camp, it is possible that it will be re-approved by two-thirds of the Lower House by extending the term of the current session. If ABE had a strong will to get the new legislation through the Diet as he had enacted a bill revising the National Civil Service Law during the previous extra session, the MSDF refueling mission will be able to resumed, although the mission might be discontinued for about one month. Therefore, the prime minister's decision to resign is inconsistent with his statement in Sydney last weekend that he would stake his job on extending the MSDF refueling operation, which is an international commitment. Abe said his staying in office was obstructed by his failure to obtain a meeting with DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa. Ozawa, however, has consistently opposed continuation of the MSDF operation. ABE expressed his expectations of frank talks between the new LDP president and Ozawa, but there is no guarantee that the DPJ will change its position after ABE resigns as prime minister. It is not understandable that he cited the LDP's crushing defeat in the Upper House election as a reason for his decision to resign at this time. Revealing that Ozawa cited as his reason for not meeting ABE was that ABE had not accepted the judgment of the people, ABE stated: "The results of the Upper House election were harsh." He also said: "The ABE cabinet failed to obtain public confidence. I think this is probably my responsibility." Abe announced his intention to stay in office despite the LDP's setback in the July Upper House race. He then came under fire from both the ruling and opposition camps. In his policy speech on Sept. 10, however, he expressed his determination to continue to push forward with reforms for the sake of the people based on the results of the Upper House election. The reasons for the resignation of successive prime ministers were clear. They took responsibility for budgets not clearing the Diet due to scandals, the party's setback in an election, as well as health reasons. However, ABE quit his job, reversing his past remarks immediately before the start of questioning sessions by party representatives on his policy speech. Although a health problem was included in Abe's decision as Chief Cabinet Secretary Kaoru Yosano revealed, it goes without saying that he lacked the qualifications to be prime minister. (3) Prime Minister ABE quits but what will be the fate of structural reforms? Challenge is to strike balance with effort to correct social disparities: CEFP meeting cancelled on short notice MAINICHI (Page 11) (Excerpts) September 13, 2009 Prime Minister Abe's abrupt decision to step down will likely have a major impact on economic policy, including fiscal and financial policies and trade talks. The expanded social disparities caused by the structural reform policy inherited from the previous administration, as well as public distrust in the government over the pension fiasco and the politics and money issue are attributable to the ruling parties' crushing defeat in the Upper House, which prefaced Abe's resignation. Amid the bleak economic prospects, TOKYO 00004281 004 OF 010 chances are high that voices calling for a shift from the reform policy will gain ground with a changeover of prime ministers as the occasion. Trade talks, which require coordination of complicated interests, will need a prime minister's leadership. A protracted period of political turmoil could have a negative impact on the management of the economy and public finances. Following the announcement of Prime Minister Abe's decision to step down, a meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP), slated for the evening of Sept. 12, was cancelled on short notice. The panel was supposed to discuss such issues as reshaping local economies. However, it had no other choice but to put off the meeting until after a new prime minister takes office. The role of the CEFP, which has served as the driving force for structural reforms, could change, depending on the policy of the next administration. Prime Minister ABE failed to achieve major results in economic policy. He advocated a new economic growth strategy aimed at boosting tax revenues through economic growth. Referring to financial resources to fund an increase in state contribution to the basic pension, he said in the July Upper House election campaign that he wanted to bring about a situation that does not require a hike in the consumption tax. However, he failed to win support from the voters. The gross domestic product (GDP) for the April-June quarter in the second preliminary report marked negative growth. What impact the high-interest housing loans (sub-prime loan) for low-income earners in the US will have on the Japanese economy is not clear. The future of the economy, which has thus far boosted tax revenues, is not all that rosy. In particular, various economic indices indicate that the benefits of the economic recovery centered on the manufacturing sector and leading companies are not being felt by small and medium businesses and local economies. The challenge the next administration will likely face will include dealing with such issues as correcting income disparities, while promoting efforts to recapitalize public finance. However, scattering about pork-barrel largesse in the form of carrying out unnecessary public works and budgetary fund appropriation will not herald independent local governments. Taizo Nishimura, chairman of the Fiscal System Advisory Council, an advisory panel reporting to the finance minister, was quick to make it clear during a press conference on Sept. 12 that though the economic policy could change under the next prime minister, further deterioration of public finances must be prevented. Positive impact on Japanese economy Kiyohiko Fukushima, professor at Rikkyo University Prime Minister ABE has decided to hand his administration to the next leader, feeling his limitations in what he can do as prime minister. His decision could work favorably to the Japanese economy. In implementing the reform policy, which he inherited from his predecessor Koizumi, ABE only partially modified it. One reason for the LDP defeat in the Upper House election is social disparities between urban and rural districts. A similar point has been made in the LDP. TOKYO 00004281 005 OF 010 If the next prime minister presses ahead with an effort to make public finances healthy, while correcting excessive market principles without scattering about pork-barrel largesse, he would be able to win high scores from the public and the market. The nation will need a leader who can talk about a consumption tax hike with confidence in the future. Doha Round Another concern is that Japan's influence on multilateral talks (Doha Round) at the World Trade Organization (WTO) will decline. ABE during the APEC forum summit held in Sydney, Australia, Aug. 8-9 expressed to participants his political resolve to reach an agreement within the year. However, his resignation as well as the string of the replacements of agricultural ministers are certain to deal a blow to the trade policy. Economic, Trade and Industry Minister (METI) Akira Amari on Sept. 12 told reporters, "All we can do is to have the meaning of the prime minister's resignation understood." However, personal ties with the other party holds the major key in trade talks, as a senior METI official put it. It could be difficult for a new administration to have Japan's negotiation partners understand its position right after the beginning. The head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MOFA) has been replaced successively after the suicide of Agriculture Minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka in May. Even the vice minister was replaced on Sept. 7. Some in the ministry lamented, "When can we work in peace?" MAFF has many issues to deal with, including easing conditions for importing US beef, reviewing the farmland system and WTO talks. It is also of urgent necessity to restore trust in MAFF, which has been damaged due to the criticism it came under over subsidies. Agriculture Minister Wakabayashi on Sept. 12 stated, "Those pending issues will not immediately halt agricultural administration." However, there is strong concern about such a possibility. Wakabayashi, who took office on Sept. 4, is still receiving briefings on pending issues from various bureaus in the ministry. If a sixth minister takes office, MOFA has to establish a system from scratch. One senior official criticized Abe, "The resignation of Vice Agriculture Minister Yoshio Kobayashi for a fresh start of the ministry will be wasted. Prime Minister ABE is irresponsible." (4) Emergency roundtable on Prime Minister Abe's decision to step down -- a political crisis that requires public vote (Part 1) MAINICHI (Page 4) (Abridged) September 13, 2007 ? Jun Iio, professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies ? Atsushi Kusano, professor, Keio University ? Takakazu Matsuda, senior writer, Mainichi Shimbun Background -- Prime Minister SHINZO ABE abruptly announced his decision to step down. What was your reaction, and in your view, what caused him to TOKYO 00004281 006 OF 010 do so? Kusano: It took me by total surprise. He could have done so after his crushing defeat after the July Upper House election, or before shuffling his cabinet. It is utterly irresponsible to announce his intention to step down soon after delivering his policy address and before Diet interpellations kick off. He simply plans to throw away everything. Iio: I was shocked. It was just unbelievable. At the same time, it made me realize that such a person has been serving as the prime minister. He shouldn't have decided to resign, no matter what. His answers to the questions during the press conference yesterday, in which he officially announced his decision to step down, were somewhat illogical. It was appalling to know that a person like him who is incapable of holding the reins of government has been serving as the prime minister. Matsuda: There was a view even within the cabinet that the days of the ABE administration were numbered, so I thought his administration would probably come to an end before the end of the year -- but not so abruptly. He announced his decision like fleeing before the enemy lines. He has been ignoring the general public. He decided to stay in power by ignoring the public. He again decided to step down by ignoring the public. Kusano: Not only ABE but also all LDP lawmakers are to blame. After all, it was the LDP lawmakers that elected ABE as their president a year ago, expecting him to behave like his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, who had a rare talent for dealing with the media. -- As reasons for his resignation, Prime Minister ABE cited DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa's rejection of talks with him and the need to turn around the political situation for an extension of the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. What is the real reason? Iio: He first cited Japan's failure to keep its international pledge. His resignation would reduce Japan's chances to deliver on that pledge, for the next LDP president will not necessarily advocate the same policy. In order to break the impasse, ABE could have announced his decision a lot earlier, but he didn't. So my guess is that the real reason was personal -- he just wanted to call it quits. I want to know since when he has been harboring that desire, because it is a matter of collective responsibility. When the country's top leader loses his mental balance under the parliamentary cabinet system, people around him should advise him to step down. Those around ABE should also be blamed. Masuda: He has failed to live up to his own words -- what he calls his international pledge. Realizing that he won't be able to deliver on it, he has decided to step down all by himself. Iio: ABE repeatedly played up the importance of the Antiterrorism Law. If he really meant it, he could have introduced a bill to extend the law in the previous Diet session and have it passed. He should have called an extraordinary Diet session right after the July Upper House election without shuffling his cabinet and immediately presented an Antiterrorism Law extension bill. Both extending the existing law and enacting new legislation have become difficult with his resignation. TOKYO 00004281 007 OF 010 Kusano: Regarding the question of politics and money, ABE pledged to mandate all lawmakers to attach receipts for expenditures over 1 yen to their political funds reports. This may never happen because it is drawing fire even from within the LDP. ABE promised so many things that are unlikely to be put into action. Matsuda: Pension is one of them. He declared to complete crosschecking the unidentified pension records in a year. He has decided to throw up the three challenges -- politics and money, the pension, and the Antiterrorism Law -- that must be thoroughly discussed in the ongoing extraordinary Diet session. Iio: He has decided not only to step down but also destroyed the foundations for the three challenges. The lawmakers might have to start from scratch. What would happen to the campaign pledges if the next prime minister decides to ignore them? This is no longer a crisis for the LDP; it is a crisis for Japanese politics. -- Did ABE show any sings of his intention to resign? Matsuda: Behind Secretary General Aso's strong leadership in the party and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yosano's dominance in the cabinet, I sensed their intention to reduce Abe's influence. For instance, Abe retired early yesterday reportedly due to a cold. Yosano then called in persons concerned to discuss ways to extend the Indian Ocean mission. It pointed to an envisaged political scene without Abe. Kusano: I hear that during his tenure as chief cabinet secretary, Abe often lost his tempter regarding the scrap-and-build reorganization of the state-owned financial institutions. According to a senior Foreign Ministry official, ABE was elated during the Japan-US and Japan-Australia summits on the sidelines of the recent APEC forum. President Bush highly evaluated Japan's refueling mission, and ABE promised Japan's continued commitment. But the conclusion reached through the talks last night among Yosano and others was that re-adoption of new legislation in the Lower House would be difficult. ABE won't be able to deliver on his personal pledge, and that prompted him to throw up everything. I think this can explain his behavior. Iio: Even if re-adoption is not possible, he should pull the ruling coalition together. He has the power to dissolve the Lower House. He could use it to ask for a public vote of confidence in his administration. He seems to lack what it takes to be the nation's top leader. Matsuda: In a meeting last Thursday with newspaper editorial writers, he lacked aggressiveness, repeating the same thing over and over. Kusano: In explaining Abe's decision, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yosano cited his health problem. Iio: This is a political crisis. We need to know the truth. If ABE has a health problem, he should conduct Diet interpellations, as planned, and explain clearly why he decided call it quits at this point. (5) Collapse of ABE administration (Part 1): ABE lacks competence required of prime minister TOKYO 00004281 008 OF 010 TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Full) September 13, 2007 A plenary session of the House of Representatives was scheduled to start at 13:00 yesterday. Although the first bell usually rings ten minutes before the start of a session, it didn't yesterday. Only a limited number of senior Liberal Democratic Party members, such as Secretary General Taro Aso and Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima, had been informed of the reason why the bell didn't ring. About ten minutes later, many lawmakers learned of the unprecedented new that the prime minister would resign just before representative interpellations at a House of Representatives plenary session. Prime Minister SHINZO ABE secretly conveyed his intention to resign to Aso for the first time when they met in private on the evening of Sept. 10. About two hours before meeting with Aso, the prime minister delivered policy speeches at both houses' plenary sessions, in which he said: "I would like to engage in state affairs while deeply reflecting on causing public distrust in politics." On Sept. 9, he categorically said in a press conference in Sydney, "I will stake my job" on extending the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. Immediately after expressing this determination, he announced that he would resign as prime minister. It is hard to understand why. The five LDP executive officers rushed to the Prime Minister's Office (Kantei) just before the prime minister's press conference starting at 2:00 pm yesterday to announce his decision to step down. House of Councillors Caucus Chairman Hidehisa Otsuji asked ABE why he decided to resign at this time and tried to dissuade him from resigning, saying: "You should not make a decision on your own. Your decision will affect the entire nation." His words represented the feelings of many LDP members and people. But no clear-cut reply came from the prime minister. As pointed out by Chief Cabinet Secretary Kaoru Yosano, there may be some health problem. The prime minister was seen eating only rice gruel during a study session for his policy speech. Later, he reportedly survived somehow by receiving an intravenous drip. On Sept. 11, Upper House member Hiroshige Seko (former special advisor to t he prime minister),an close aide to the prime minister, secretly visited the Kantei and tried to encourage him, but ABE SIPDIS reportedly made no response. The prime minister was certainly in an extreme situation both physically and mentally. Even so, since his responsibility as the head of one nation is heavy, Prime Minister ABE unavoidably has been exposed to criticism for his decision to abandon his duty at this time. Not only opposition members but also LDP members denounce him as irresponsible. The prime minister entered the Kantei last September, carrying the burden of public "expectations" on him for his youth and freshness. Such expectations, though, soon changed into "anxiety" and "disappointment." The lack of explanation and the inability to make a decisive decision are cited as the main reasons for the change in TOKYO 00004281 009 OF 010 public feelings. Why is it necessary to revise the Constitution? Why does the government need to reform the civil-servant system? Why doesn't he resign although the LDP was defeated in the Upper House? Why doesn't he reshuffle the cabinet? The prime minister gave no proper replies to the questions posed to him. His decisions also lacked principle. Why did he decide to put an end to his administration now? His decision to leave office hit the nation like a bolt from the blue. This was a symbolic event of the administration. Prime Minister ABE often says that history will evaluate politicians. As of Sept. 12, we have to give a harsh evaluation to Prime Minister Abe. He is judged as lacking competence required of a prime minister. (6) Prime Minister ABE to be hospitalized for at least 3-4 days at Keio Hospital MAINICHI ONLINE NEWS (Full) September 13, 2007, 14:30 p.m. Physicians at Keio Hospital (at Tokyo's Shinjuku Ward) held a press briefing this afternoon to announce the results of their check up of Prime Minister Abe, who yesterday announced his intention to resign. Norifumi Hibi, the physician in charge and a professor of internal medicine at the hospital, explained: "The prime minister is totally exhausted. He has lost some five kilograms over several months. He is suffering from a functional gastrointestinal disorder. If the symptoms become worse, it will hinder his daily life." The physician added, "The prime minister needs to be hospitalized for at least three to four days." Earlier in the day, ABE underwent a medical checkup at the hospital. He expressed his intension to attend a general meeting of his Liberal Democratic Party's Diet members of both the chambers slated for this afternoon, but a team of doctors judged it would be difficult for him to do so. As a result, ABE gave up on attending the meeting. (7) Protection of lifeline for oil transport SANKEI (Page 1) (Excerpts) September 13, 2007 Keiichi Takagi The Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) has been engaged in the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean under the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law, which expires on Nov. 1. This mission is of great significance in the sense that Japan has taken part in the international joint operations against terrorism. As the multinational force's performance, a source familiar with Japan-US military affairs revealed that the multinational force's vessels have interdicted eight cases of piracy until now. Although the MSDF's refueling mission has not been a direct help to prevent international terrorist group al-Qaeda and the Taliban -- the primary target of the antiterrorism operations -- from transporting their weapons and narcotics and to capture them, the MSDF's another TOKYO 00004281 010 OF 010 important role of playing a part in the defense of the (Japanese) sea lanes has been proven. Japan depends on marine transportation of its energy resources, such as oil and minerals. According to the Natural Resources and Energy Agency, Japan imports 90 PERCENT of its oil from the Middle East, and "All oil is transported by large tankers to Japan via the Indian Ocean." Keeping the Indian Ocean safe is an important task for Japan in terms of energy security. The MSDF's participation in the antiterrorism tactic in the Indian Ocean by refueling other countries' vessels has contributed to containing pirates operating behind the scenes for looting in the ocean leading to the Straits of Malacca. In this regard, a government official stressed: "It has fully served Japan's national interests." SCHIEFFER