JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 09/13/07

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 15 TOKYO 004267 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 09/13/07 Index: 1) Top headlines 2) Editorials 3) Prime Minister's daily schedule Popular opinion: 4) Average citizens calling Abe's quitting post "irresponsible" 5) 74 PERCENT of the public give Prime Minister ABE low marks for his year in office Post-Abe moves: 6) LDP coordinating Sept. 19 as date for presidential election to replace Abe; LDP Secretary General Aso to declare candidacy today 7) Some working on Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda to throw hat into the LDP presidential ring, while others urging former Prime Minister Koizumi to run Why did ABE quit? 8) ABE exhausted by overseas trips; Told Aso on evening of 10th he was quitting 9) Abe's physical condition deteriorated in August: Eating rice gruel, even on IV Ozawa's DPJ on the move: 10) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to continue frontal attack on government, hoping for an early dissolution of the Lower House and a snap election 11) Abe's sudden resignation forcing DPJ to rethink strategy Impact of Abe's quitting on foreign and security affairs: 12) Abe's sudden resignation to have a serious impact on foreign and security policies, especially six-party talks and fate of anti-terror legislation 13) Inevitable that MSDF refueling services will have to be halted, as new anti-terror bill likely to be greatly delayed and DPJ not budging on its opposition 14) Passage of new anti-terrorism law likely to be seriously delayed, possibly until next year 15) Confusion in Washington over Abe's sudden resignation, but expectation still high that MSDF refueling in the Indian Ocean can be continued 16) With ABE suddenly quitting, economists and business leaders fear stagnation in economic policy Articles: 1) TOP HEADLINES Asahi: Choosing ABE successor appears to be contest between pro- and anti-Aso groups; Presidential election on Sept. 19 or 25 Mainichi: Aso to announce plan to run for LDP presidency today; Some eager to back Koizumi Yomiuri: Full-fledged moves begin within LDP to pick new president; Aso expected to announce candidacy on Sept. 14 TOKYO 00004267 002 OF 015 Nikkei: Prime Minister ABE abruptly resigns, citing lack of public trust Sankei: Shocking ABE resignation (Part 1): Last hope crushed Tokyo Shimbun: Abe to step down; Coordination underway for presidential election on Sept. 19; Aso expected to announce candidacy today Akahata: Prime Minister ABE abruptly decides to throw away his job, administration 2) EDITORIALS Asahi: (1) Prime Minister Abe's decision to throw up his administration appalling; Lower House dissolution must follow to determine new administration Mainichi: (1) Lower House must be dissolved to end political turmoil resulting from Abe's decision to throw up administration Yomiuri: (1) Dealing with aftermath of Abe's abrupt decision Nikkei: (1) Political turmoil after Abe's abrupt resignation announcement sets off grave concern Sankei: (1) Prime Minister ABE to step down before delivering on international pledge; Childish approach to running administration raises questions Tokyo Shimbun: (1) Abe's resignation leaves LDP with two choices: going into opposition or dissolving Lower House Akahata: (1) Prime Minister ABE to resign: No self-reflection until last 3) Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei) Prime Minister's schedule, September 12 NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) September 13, 2007 09:50 Arrived at the Kantei. 12:11 Met Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Oshima and Diet Affairs Committee Vice Chairman Kosaka. Later, met Chief Cabinet Secretary Yosano. 13:03 Met Yosano, deputy chief cabinet secretaries Ono, Iwaki, and Matoba, joined by Secretary General Aso, Executive Council Chairman Nikai, TOKYO 00004267 003 OF 015 Policy Research Council Chairman Ishihara, Upper House caucus Chairman Otsuji, Upper House Secretary General Yamasaki, and Election Bureau Director General Suga. 13:59 Held a press conference. 14:35 Met Upper House member Nobuo Kishi. 15:41 Met Yosano. 16:47 Met former Financial Services Minister Yamamoto. 17:24 Returned to his official residence. 4) ABE is "irresponsible," voters say; some voters expect "next prime minister" MAINICHI (Page 26) (Excerpts) September 13, 2007 Many voters are perplexed by Prime Minister SHINZO Abe's abrupt announcement of his intention to resign. One voter said, "Why he decided to resign at this point?" Another said, "He is irresponsible." Another said, "It is only natural for him to step down." Voters' choices for the next prime minister were Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary General and Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Yoichi Masuzoe. Takayuki Kishimoto, 56, a company employee, a resident of Shiroishi Ward, Sapporo City, Hokkaido, said: "I don't understand why he decided to step down at this period of time. The issue of extending the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law cannot be left unresolved. I don't understand his decision to resign without paving the way for the enactment of the bill. The LDP and DPJ should have thoroughly discussed the issue." Regarding Abe's successor, Kishimoto said: "Under such a situation, there will be probably nobody to run. I think the LDP has no choice but to elect Secretary General Aso.:" Taeko Hashimoto, 48, a part-time worker in Nishi Ward, Fukuoka City, said: "I was surprised because I thought he would stay in the premiership for a while." She works at a company. Of the company's employers, 90 PERCENT are dispatched employees and part-time workers. She has been increasingly unhappy with the gaps in wages between the temporary and permanent employees. So she feels the social and income disparities. She said, "Life did not get better while ABE assumed the prime minister's post." She expressed hopes for changes of government, saying: "I couldn't understand what ABE was talking about because his phrases about a beautiful country and moving away from the postwar regime were abstract. I think a member of the DPJ should assume the premiership after the Lower House is dissolved for a snap election." TOKYO 00004267 004 OF 015 Reiko Okada, 70, resident of Gifu City, criticized Abe, saying: "It was natural for him to quit. It was too late. I felt the prime minister's policies were very different from the people's desire. I think there is problem in the contents of the revised Basic Education Law such as the renewal of teaching credential." Asked about who should be next prime minister, Okada replied: "I want to let the DPJ assume the reins of government. If it fails to get results, the public will have to thoroughly think abut which party is better between the DLP and DPJ." Shinji Ito, 30, a company employee in Chuo Ward, Osaka, said: "When I was promoted to a supervisory position, I was once driven into a corner. Seeing ABE who stayed in office under severe criticism of his responsibility for the defeat in the Upper House election, I was encouraged by him, so I thought I should hang on there. I want him to fulfill his duty even though his efforts will end in failure in extending the Antiterrorism Law." Ito also said: "I would like to have Ozawa become next prime minister. I hope he has no politics-and-money scandal. I want him to bring about transparent politics." 5) Poll: 74 PERCENT give negative marks to ABE government over past year MAINICHI (Page 5) (Abridged) September 13, 2007 A total of 74 PERCENT gave negative ratings to Prime Minister Shinzo ABE and his cabinet over the past year, the Mainichi Shimbun found from its face-to-face nationwide public opinion survey conducted Sept. 7-9. Affirmative ratings totaled only 22 PERCENT . In the survey, respondents were asked what they thought was wrong about what ABE has done. In response, a total of 44 PERCENT picked Abe's way of dealing with political scandals over money and gaffes from his cabinet ministers, topping all other answers. Among other answers, 20 PERCENT chose his decision to stay on as premier after his ruling Liberal Democratic Party's rout in this July's election for the House of Councillors. The ABE cabinet's support rate has been staying low at around 30 PERCENT . In addition, his cabinet's job performance has been also rated low. These factors can be taken as having spurred ABE to move up his resignation. Negative ratings for the ABE cabinet accounted for 91 PERCENT among those who support the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto),92 PERCENT among those who support the Japanese Communist Party, and 88 PERCENT among those who support the Social Democratic Party (Shaminto). Among those with no particular party affiliation as well, negative ratings totaled 80 PERCENT . In the case of those who support the ruling parties as well, negative ratings totaled 51 PERCENT among LDP supporters and 59 PERCENT among New Komeito supporters. By age, negative ratings totaled 80 PERCENT among those in their 20s, topping all other age brackets, with 78 PERCENT each among those in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, 69 PERCENT among those in their 60s, and 61 PERCENT among those aged 70 and over. As seen from these figures, bitter ratings came from young and middle-age people. TOKYO 00004267 005 OF 015 By gender, negative ratings totaled 76 PERCENT among men and 71 PERCENT among women. 6) Coordination underway for LDP presidential election on Sept. 19; Aso may announce candidacy today; Move to urge Fukuda to run in race TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top Play) (Excerpts) September 13, 2007 Prime Minister SHINZO Abe, president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced his intention yesterday afternoon at the Prime Minister's Official Residence to resign his post. He stated: "I have found it difficult to press forward with my policy without public support and confidence. I have to take responsibility for such a situation and break the deadlock." The LDP has launched coordination on a plan to formally announce on Sept. 14 the holding of a presidential election on the 19th. Secretary General Taro Aso will likely to announce his candidacy for the race as early as today. There is a move in the LDP calling on former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda to run in the race. The main opposition SIPDIS Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) intends to strengthen its offensive, strongly reacting against Abe's abrupt announcement about his intention to step down. A new government will likely find it increasingly difficult to dealing with the issue of extending the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling operation in the Indian Ocean in the ongoing session of the Diet, in which the opposition camp controls the House of Councillors. Abe said at the press conference yesterday the reason for his decision to step down: "DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa turned down my offer for a meeting with him on the refueling issue. He has, however, criticized me for not seeking the judgment of the people. So, I am determined that changing this situation would be better served if I resign the premiership. " The outlook is that presidential candidates will compete to grab a total of 528 votes -- 387 votes held by individual LDP lawmakers and the remaining votes possessed by the 47 prefectural chapters, with each chapter having three votes. The House of Representatives had planned to hold the questioning sessions by party representatives on Sept. 12-14. The ruling coalition asked the opposition camp to withdraw that schedule and the opposition accepted it. 7) ABE successor race: Intense maneuvering seen among factions centering on Aso, Fukuda; Some calling for Koizumi's comeback SANKEI (Page 1) (Excerpts) September 13, 2007 All factions in the Liberal Democratic Party began making moves yesterday to determine their candidates to replace outgoing Prime Minister SHINZO Abe. Although Secretary General Taro Aso is regarded as the frontrunner in the race, there is also growing momentum in the party to field former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda. The Tsushima and Tanigaki factions, for instance, are aiming to SIPDIS determine their candidates by staking their presence on the race. Given the opposition bloc's continued control of the Upper House TOKYO 00004267 006.2 OF 015 regardless of a change of government, there are even calls for a comeback of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, the "gambler." Political turmoil is likely to continue. "A political vacuum must not be created. In order to fulfill our political obligations toward the public, we must select the new LDP president as soon as possible," Aso said in a press conference held last evening after an emergency General Council meeting. About his presidency, Aso simply said: "It's too early to ask that question and too early to answer it." But he also said to his associates: "The LDP is faced with an unprecedented crisis. Running away from it is not an option for a person in politics." This suggests that Aso has made up his mind to run in the race. Aso is the prime candidate who can become the party's "election face." He is also popular among the junior and mid-level LDP lawmakers and local organizations that have been backing Abe's break-away-from-the-postwar-regime policy course. At the same time, his straight-talking manner has created many enemies. He is on cat-and-dog terms with former Secretary General Koichi Kato and former Vice President Taku Yamasaki. His relationships with former Secretaries General Makoto Koga and Hidenao Nakagawa are also icy. The latest cabinet shuffle has also caused discord between Aso and former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori. Additionally, the LDP freshman lawmakers dubbed Koizumi children are becoming distrustful of Aso over the question of reinstating former METI Minister Takeo Hiranuma. Meanwhile, the Machimura faction is moving toward fielding its own candidate. Fukuda and Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura are likely candidates. The faction's ultimate decision would significantly affect the trend of the presidential race. If Fukuda joins the race, chances are that it will become a duel between Aso and Fukuda, as Koga, Yamasaki, Tsuhima and others searched for ways to replace ABE with Fukuda after the July Upper House election. At the same time, as there are "secret Aso fans" in the Koga, Yamasaki and Tsuhima factions, the presidential election might accelerate the realignment of LDP factions. If Machimura runs in the race, other factions might also field such members as Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga and former Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki. No one would win a majority in this situation, and as a result, fierce political maneuvering is likely to take place among the factions, such as joining hands between the ones in the second and third place with an eye on a runoff. Although Machimura flatly has denied his candidacy, his feeling seems mixed as seen in a senior Foreign Ministry official's prediction that he is going to be busy. Fukuda also said: "I don't talk about the future. As a general argument, we must avoid a political vacuum that would cause trouble for the general public." Mori, who holds the key to the trend of the Machimura faction, will hastily return to Japan this morning, cutting short his France tour. Other factions seem to plan to determine their steps after ascertaining the trend of the Machimura faction. Meanwhile, 31 LDP members, mostly freshman lawmakers, calling for Koizumi's comeback met at a Tokyo hotel last night and launched a group to make Koizumi Abe's successor. (TN: Jiji Press reports this morning that Koizumi has ruled out making a bid.) TOKYO 00004267 007 OF 015 8) Worn out ABE decides to abandon premiership; Signs of deep exhaustion after his overseas trip seen; Told Aso on 10th he would quit ASAHI (Page 2) (Excerpts) September 13, 2007 Prime Minister Abe, whose political slogan was "a fighting politician," decided to abandon the premiership just before engaging in battle with the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in the Diet, where the DPJ controls the upper chamber. Days before in Sydney, ABE declared, "I'll stake my position on (extending the antiterrorism law)." Following this remark, ABE yesterday announced his intention abruptly to resign. After a devastating defeat in the July Upper House election, ABE reshuffled his cabinet to recover from the defeat but he failed. Did he lose his vitality and physical vigor in the face of difficulties in steering his administration? "I see.... Well, I have something important to talk to you," ABE said calmly at his office in the Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei) around noon yesterday, when the LDP's Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima reported to ABE about a failure to set a one-on-one meeting with DPJ President Ozawa to discuss the question of extending the Maritime Self-Defense Force's (MSDF) refueling mission. Abe then said: "I have decided to step down. I will telephone the secretary general now to tell him." SIPDIS Around 1:30 p.m., ABE called the five LDP top officers, including Secretary General Aso, to the Kantei and again conveyed his SIPDIS intention to resign to them. Bowing before them, ABE said: "I am sorry for troubling you at this important point in time. I apologize for this." Hidehisa Otsuji, chairman of the LDP Upper House Caucus, intensely tried to persuade ABE not to resign, telling him, "This is not a matter that involves only you. This is a matter of great importance for the nation." But ABE would not change his mind and held an emergency press conference at 2:00 p.m. ABE reiterated: "I must change the current situation by taking responsibility as the top leader." After the press conference, ABE returned to his office and met with his younger brother, Nobuo Kishi, a House of Councillors member. ABE told Kishi: "In order for the refueling mission to be continued, it would not be a wise choice for me to stay on." According to Kishi, Abe looked deeply exhausted for a while after he returned home from Sydney. There were signs in Sydney that this might happen. In a meeting with US President Bush on Sept. 8, ABE pledged to continue the refueling mission, saying, "I'll do my utmost to accomplish it." Afterwards, Abe told reporters: "This is an international pledge." At a press conference with Japanese and foreign reporters on Sept. 9, ABE further added, "I'll stake my position on it." Saying, "I will not insist on holding on to my position," ABE implied his cabinet would resign en masse if he failed to get the refueling mission extended. The remark, "I'll stake my position on it," was taken to mean he had expressed his "unflagging resolve" to continue the refueling TOKYO 00004267 008 OF 015 mission, but some in the ruling bloc took it that "the prime minister has now envisioned his own resignation." According to Aso, on the evening of Sept. 10 after ABE delivered his keynote address at the start of an extraordinary Diet session and after an LDP executive meeting, Aso was told by ABE for the first time about Abe's intention to "resign." Aso reportedly tried to persuade ABE not to resign, saying, "Discussion on the antiterrorism law has yet to start" and "Now is not the right timing (to resign)." 9) Abe's health declines, isolated in Kantei ASAHI (Page 2) (Full) September 13, 2007 Because Prime Minister Abe's announcement of his intention to resign came so abruptly, there are many who point out reasons other than the question of continuing the Maritime Self-Defense Force's (MSDF) refueling mission, which ABE referred to as the reason for his resignation. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yosano told a press briefing yesterday evening: "I think problems the prime minister did not mention during the press conference is his health." It was out of common to mention in public a health problem, a matter of life or death in political terms for politicians. But ahead of his press briefing, Yosano was told by Abe, "You should speak the truth." "The prime minister had come to this point in carefully checking whether his health was strong enough to endure his tight schedule and heavy, psychological pressure," Yosano said. Showing consideration for the prime minister, Yosano continued: "The prime minister was in deep agony in between his job and his health." According to an official in the Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei),Abe's health deteriorated during his tour of three countries, including India, in mid-August. An official traveling with ABE explained: "During the tour, the prime minister regularly consulted a physician." This official continued that in Sydney, as well, ABE was on an intravenous drip, adding that the prime minister revealed to his aide, "My tours of India and Sydney were both hard on me." Recently physicians and nurses have been stationed in the Kantei. An aide to the prime minister commented: "The prime minister somehow survived his job by eating rice gruel and receiving an intravenous drip, but I presume he became short on physical strength." The former ABE cabinet was criticized as a "cabinet of friends." So Abe reshuffled his cabinet at the end of August; as a result, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki and former Advisor to the Prime Minister Hiroshige Seko, both of whom are close to Abe, left Kantei. An official in Kantei took this view: "The prime minister appeared isolated in Kantei because he had no one in Kantei he could consult with." Additionally, because Aso and Yosano held the real power in steering the ABE administration, ABE was "left out of the loop" in the case of replacing the former Agriculture Minister Endo. Citing this, an aide to the prime minister commented, "Abe perhaps became displeased with the 'Yosano-Aso administration.'" Another Kantei official TOKYO 00004267 009 OF 015 noted: "The prime minister was unable to handle even a small thing as he wanted." 10) DPJ to step up offensive for early dissolution of Diet: Choosing right time to hold Lower House election to come into focus of attention NIKKEI (Page 3 (Excerpts) September 13, 2007 Prime Minister Abe's announcement of his decision to quit has deepened the turmoil in the political world. ABE tried to find a breakthrough in the issue of allowing the Maritime Self-Defense Force's (MSDF) refueling operation in the Indian Ocean in exchange for his own resignation. However, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has firmly maintained its stance of opposing an extension. The party is set to do its utmost in order to force a dissolution of the Lower House at an early date, while eyeing the submission of a censure motion against the prime minister in the Upper House. DPJ President Ozawa during a press conference yesterday expressed his determination to oppose the continuation of the MSDF refueling mission, underscoring, "There is no change at all in our party's policy of seeking a Lower House election at an early date." The prime minister's surprise announcement of his decision to step down has sent a shockwave to the DPJ as well. However, Ozawa declared that there would be no change in his party's basic strategy. Ozawa during a party executive meeting, held at a time when the party was in turmoil, reproached participants, saying: "Calm down! It's the other side that's in turmoil." He also stressed during a meeting of the "Next Cabinet," "We will turn our pledges made to the public during the Upper House election campaign into laws." He thus confirmed the party's policy of submitting bills, including one to ban on the use of pension premium funds from for purposes other than use for pension benefit payments, to the Upper House. His idea is that the DPJ should win over voters in order to take over the reins of government in the next Lower House election by making a public appeal that the DPJ is seriously tackling policies for a better quality of life at a time when the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is in turmoil over the selection of a successor to Abe. Pursuit of government in three areas The DPJ's strategy is to pursue the government in the Upper House over its measures in three areas -- blocking the continuation of the refueling mission, the pension issue, and the politics and money issue. It envisages a scenario of seeking information disclosure, by exercising administrative investigation rights, and forcing a dissolution of the Lower House and a general election, by submitting and adopting a censure motion against the prime minister, depending on the government's response. The government is expected to introduce in the current Diet session a new bill allowing the MSDF to continue refueling operation as a replacement for the current Antiterrorism Special Measures Law. However, since the DPJ is determined to oppose the new bill, it is bound to be voted down in the Upper House. If the ruling camp opts for a second vote and passage in the Lower House, where it has two-thirds of the seats, the DPJ would consider submitting a censure motion, claiming that the ruling camp has ignored the will of the TOKYO 00004267 010 OF 015 people. Unlike a no-confidence motion against the cabinet submitted to the Lower House, a censure motion in the Upper House has no legal power. As such, even if it is adopted, it is not necessary for a new prime minister to implement cabinet resignation en masse or to dissolve the Lower House. However, since this would completely stop Diet deliberations, the prevalent view is that the new prime minister would be forced to choose one or the other. It is unclear whether the government and the ruling parties will really force through a second vote when there is such a possibility. In the ruling camp, LDP members in the Upper House and the New Komeito are negative toward the idea. However, if the new bill were scrapped as a result of being voted down in the Upper House, and the next prime minister remains unable to decide to carry out a second vote, then his political responsibility could be called into question. Should that occur, it could deal a blow to Japan-US relations as well. Chances are high that the next prime minister will find himself in a harsh situation, regardless of whether or not he has opted for a second vote. 11) DPJ to review its strategy, following premiers' announcement to step down: Perplexed that general election chance might slip away MAINICHI (Page 2) (Excerpts) September 13, 2007 Prime Minister Abe's announcement of his decision to resign has spread bewilderment across the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto). The announcement came just at a time when the DPJ has begun to put in every effort to pave the way for a dissolution of the Lower House and a general election during the current session, deeming it the most desirable scenario that the Diet be dissolved under Prime Minister Abe, whose power base had markedly declined. However, the view gaining ground in the party is that Diet dissolution within the year has become remote because the prime minister's resignation could turn around the current situation. The DPJ will likely be pressed to review its strategy aimed at taking the reins of government. President Ichiro Ozawa during an executive meeting with Deputy President Naoto Kan and Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama held at the party headquarters yesterday evening ordered participants to quell anxieties in the party, saying, "Don't get blindsided by the political situation. We should remain calm." Ozawa has taken the view right from the beginning that it would not be possible to force a dissolution of the Lower House over a diplomatic issue like an extension of the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law. However, in response to the prime minister's statement that he would stake his premiership on the issue, Ozawa ordered Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Hirotaka Akamatsu to speed up preparations for an election, saying, "Anything can happen now. Get on with it." Ozawa during a press conference yesterday appeared calm when he said, "It is only natural for any political party to take appropriate measures, because the Diet could be dissolved at any time." However, the DPJ's presence is bound to decline due to a changeover of prime ministers. Hirohisa Fujii, supreme advisor and a close aide to Ozawa, noted, "The DPJ will have to see a new prime minister's stance. Diet dissolution will become remote and not take TOKYO 00004267 011 OF 015 place within the year. The party will not submit a censure motion against the prime minister in the Upper House." Regarding the issue of extending the Antiterrorism Law, on which the prime minister has staked the fate of his administration, the prevalent view in the DPJ is that even if the law expires under a new prime minister, it will cause not so much of a problem, as a senior official of the Diet Affairs Committee put it. The party may shift to a low-key strategy of accumulating issues through the exercise of administrative investigation rights until Diet deliberations on the budget bill in the regular Diet session next year. 12) Prime minister's decision to resign likely to affect foreign and security policies NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) September 13, 2007 Prime Minister Abe's abrupt announcement of his resignation will inevitably have an impact on the nation's foreign and security policies. Uncertainty is looming larger over the fate of the proposed new legislation to enable the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) to continue its refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. Such challenges as a review of the Constitution to allow the SDF to exercise the right to collective defense are also likely to be put on hold. The efforts to resolve North Korea's nuclear development and abduction issues will unavoidably be put on hold. Regarding the issue of an extension of the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law, Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura told reporters yesterday: "No matter who becomes the next prime minister, discussion on the new legislation has already started in the ruling camp." A new prime minister is likely to continue the current policy, but the ruling camp has already had a major glitch in its scenario for the MSDF refueling mission. The government and the ruling parties were looking into a lengthy extension of the current extraordinary Diet session until Nov. 10. They had worked out a plan to enact the bill for a new law to replace the Antiterrorism Law by the end of the year by having the bill put to a vote in the House of Representatives and re-approved there if the House of Councillors rejects the bill. However, priority will be given to a policy speech by the new prime minister and other events in September, so the start of discussing the new legislation will inevitably be significantly delayed. It now seems difficult to have the bill adopted in the Lower House by mid-October as envisioned. A senior Foreign Ministry official said: "It might become necessary to extend the session until early next year" in order to enact the bill. Some also voice concern about an adverse effect of the prime minister's resignation on the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear programs. The next session of the six-party talks is scheduled for later this month, and around that time, the new government is expected to be launched. Keeping this in mind, a senior government official grumbled: "North Korea might judge it would be difficult for Japan to make a political decision." 13) Japan likely to call off refueling mission TOKYO 00004267 012 OF 015 TOKYO (Page 2) (Abridged) September 13, 2007 Prime Minister SHINZO ABE has now announced his resignation. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will therefore have to elect a new president who will take the place of ABE as prime minister. Meanwhile, the Diet will be also affected in its deliberations scheduled ahead. As it stands, the Diet is expected to delay its creation of a new law allowing Japan to continue the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling activities in the Indian Ocean. It is difficult to enact the newly planned law before the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law's Nov. 1 expiry. ABE has internationally committed himself to Japan's continued refueling activities in the Indian Ocean. However, Japan will inevitably be driven to call off its refueling mission. The government and the ruling parties launched a project team on Sept. 10 to discuss the issue of extending the antiterror law. The project team has just begun its discussion, with former LDP Vice President Taku Yamasaki presiding. The newly planned law restricts the SDF's activities in the Indian Ocean to oil and water supply services, and the legislation does not require the government to ask the Diet for its approval. The government and the ruling coalition are now creating a bill quickly to present it to the Diet late this month. However, ABE has now announced his intention to resign. In its aftermath, the Diet will not meet until the LDP elects its new president as Abe's successor. "We don't have enough time to deliberate on the bill," says Gen Nakatani, former director general of the Defense Agency, now upgraded to full ministry status. Moreover, the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto),now the largest of all parties in the House of Councillors, remains opposed to refueling itself. "We won't change our mind even after the LDP installs a new government," DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa told reporters in a press conference held yesterday. With this, Ozawa stressed that there would be no change in his party's stance of opposing the idea of extending the MSDF's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean even after ABE has stepped down. 14) Government, ruling camp looking to enact new antiterrorism legislation early next year SANKEI (Page 2) (Excerpts) September 13, 2007 Prime Minister SHINZO Abe's resignation will significantly delay the government's coordination work for new legislation to enable the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) to continue a refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. The MSDF mission is now highly likely to be halted on Nov. 1, when the Antiterrorism Special Measures Law expires. The government and the ruling camp have already started discussing a lengthy extension of the current Diet session, which is to end on Nov. 10, keeping in mind even the possibility of extending it until early next year. Chief Cabinet Secretary Kaoru Yosano, Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura, and Defense Minister Masahiko Komura conferred on the new legislation at the Prime Minister's Office yesterday. Speaking TOKYO 00004267 013 OF 015 before reporters after the meeting, Machimura indicated that the government would push ahead with work to draw up a bill without waiting for a successor to ABE to assume office. The government planned to adopt new legislation to replace the Antiterrorism Law at a cabinet meeting on Sept. 21. The new bill would limit the MSDF mission to oil and water supply. It also would eliminate the stipulation in the Antiterrorism Law requiring Diet approval for the MSDF mission. With Prime Minister Abe's abrupt decision to resign, however, the Diet will be closed until a new prime minister is elected, with Liberal Democratic Party Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima saying: "Diet deliberations cannot be carried out during the LDP president election campaign." The ruling bloc intended to begin deliberations on the new legislation at a House of Representatives plenary session on Sept. 27, after the prime minister, who was scheduled to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York, returns home. But since the Diet session will have to make a fresh start, beginning with a policy speech by a new prime minister, the start of deliberations will inevitably be moved to a later date. The government envisioned the possibility of withdrawing the MSDF temporarily when the Antiterrorism Law expires, but the unavoidable delay in the enactment of the new bill will prolong the vacuum period until the MSDF is again dispatched. The ruling parties intends to enact the new legislation by making use of the regulation allowing a bill to be brought back into the House of Representatives for a revote with two-thirds approval if a vote is not taken in the House of Councillors, where the opposition holds a majority, 60 days after the bill is sent there from the Lower House. Nonetheless, a senior LDP official said: "As a result of the delay in deliberations due to the prime minister's resignation, the revote would be taken in the Lower House in late December or early next year." 15) US interested in post-Abe election YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) September 13, 2007 WASHINGTON-Prime Minister ABE has now expressed his intention to step down. The US government believes that Abe's abrupt announcement of his resignation may stagnate his initiative to strengthen Japan's alliance with the United States through various steps, such as backing up the war on terror. Washington is now tensely watching the Japanese political situation's future course, including the process of electing Abe's successor. In particular, the US government anticipates that it would be inevitable to see a delay in the process of enacting a legislative measure for Japan to continue the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling activities in the Indian Ocean. The United States, also assuming Japan's possible withdrawal, will review its military operations including coordination with the armed forces of other countries. "Japan is an indispensable ally," White House spokesman Snow told reporters at a press conference on the morning of Sept. 12 (on the TOKYO 00004267 014 OF 015 evening of Sept. 12 Japan time). "We will continue to cooperate closely in every possible area," he added. With this, the US government reiterated its expectations for Japan to continue the MSDF's refueling mission. When President Bush, upholding the war on terror as his top priority task, met ABE in Sydney on Sept. 8, the president requested ABE in person to continue Japan's refueling activities. Japan's drawdown as a US ally could further embolden the Democratic Party that is intensifying its criticism of the Republican Party administration over its Iraq policy. Moreover, Japan's supply of highly refined fuel is indispensable for naval vessels out there from Pakistan and other countries. Given this fact, they may also recall their vessels. The US government hopes that Japan's new prime minister will break the impasse. However, Washington is also at a loss over Abe, who announced his resignation shortly after committing himself to make his "utmost efforts" to continue Japan's refueling activities. Abe has focused on North Korea's abduction of Japanese nationals. One US government official presumes that Abe's resignation would make it easier for Washington to talk with Pyongyang through various steps, such as removing North Korea from its terrorist list. 16) Concern growing about stagnation of economic policy, with Prime Minister Abe's resignation YOMIURI (Page 11) (Excerpts) September 13, 2007 Prime Minister Abe's sudden announcement of his intent to step down yesterday has dimmed the prospects for the fate of the key economic challenges the administration has so far tackled. If the political vacuum is prolonged, policy management may be stalled in the tax, financial, trade and many other areas. Prime Minister Abe, who continued the Koizumi administration's structural reform policy, has decided to step down midway. Some persons have expressed concern about the future of the reform policy line. In a meeting of the Financial System Deliberation Council, an advisory panel to the finance minister, which started at 2:00 pm yesterday, the participants were watching Prime Minister Abe's press conference on television for about 15 minutes at the outset. In a press conference after the meeting, Council Chairman Taizo Nishimuro, Tokyo Stock Exchange chairman, referred to the compilation of the FY2008 budget and stressed his determination to push through the financial reconstruction policy. He said: "I won't make a policy switch while taking the shaky political situation into consideration." However, uncertainty is looming over the future Diet schedule. Should the government, under attack from the opposition camp, decide to dissolve the House of Representatives, the budgetary compilation at year's end might be delayed to early next year. On debate on a bold reform of the tax system, including the consumption tax, as well, pessimistic views are spreading, as a senior Finance Ministry official said: "The situation might become such that lawmakers are so eager to discuss the Antiterrorism Law that tax system reform might be set aside." TOKYO 00004267 015 OF 015 SCHIEFFER