ABE RESIGNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 004262

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS JA
SUBJECT: ABE RESIGNS

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary. Prime Minister Abe sent shock waves through
Japan's political world on September 12 with his sudden
announcement that he will resign. As for the reason behind
his decision, he offered his concern that his continued
tenure as PM is making it difficult for Japan to live up to
its international commitments (OEF legislation extension).
The move caught his own party by surprise, coming just three
days into the new Diet session, and one day after he
reiterated his commitment to pursuing his legislative agenda.
Abe and his cabinet will remain in place until the LDP
elects his replacement as LDP president, which news reports
indicate could happen as early as September 19. The new LDP
president will then be voted in as prime minister by the
LDP-controlled Lower House. This schedule would presumably
allow Japan's new Prime Minister to speak during Japan's UNGA
slot the evening of September 25. In the meantime, Diet
business will likely grind to a halt, delaying action on the
anti-terror bill. End Summary.


2. (C) Shinzo Abe announced his intention to step down as
Prime Minister and President of the ruling Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP),citing his concern that his continued tenure as
PM is making it difficult for Japan to live up to its
international commitments by passing legislation to permit
Japan to continue to contribute to OEF. In an early
afternoon press conference on September 12, Abe unexpectedly
told reporters that he thought it would be better for a new
leader to take the helm, since it would be difficult for him
to regain public confidence and unify the party. He said
that he had only decided to step down that morning, and the
first word on the resignation came from LDP Secretary General
Aso around noon. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yosano and Foreign
Minister Machimura appeared unaware of Abe's plans in
meetings with the Ambassador just minutes before word of the
Prime Minister's press conference. Other Embassy contacts
uniformly expressed surprise at the sudden announcement.
Some claimed Abe had resigned for unnamed health reasons,
speculation that was supported by Chief Cabinet Secretary
Yosano's subsequent reference to concerns about Abe's health,
particularly after his return from a trip to India and
Southeast Asia. Others offered that some sort of brewing
scandal was about to emerge. Both LDP lawmakers and
opposition leaders quickly labeled Abe's planned resignation
as "irresponsible" in their public comments.


3. (C) Prime Minister Abe and his ministers will continue in
their positions until a new Prime Minister is elected by the
Lower House, in accordance with the Japanese Constitution.
Given the LDP's overwhelming dominance in the lower chamber,
Abe will be replaced as Prime Minister by his successor as
president of the LDP, who will be chosen in accordance with
internal LDP rules. According to current regulations, if
there is a single candidate for LDP president, the election
can be held almost immediately. If there are multiple
candidates, then the election must be announced at least 12
twelve days prior to the election date to allow for a period
of campaigning.


4. (C) That said, because these are internal rules, they can
be changed, and there is pressure on the party to have a new
president, and thus Prime Minister, in place in time to give
Japan's speech at UNGA during its slot the evening of
September 25. As such, and according to NHK television,
candidates for LDP president will declare their candidacies
by September 14, and the election will be held on September

19. Regardless of the exact timing, the election will eat
into the new Diet session and delay further action on Japan's
anti-terror legislation.
Schieffer