ABE'S NEW CABINET GETS BOUNCE IN POLLS BUT REMAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 004044

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT. PLEASE PASS TO USTR/MBEEMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2017/08/28
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: ABE'S NEW CABINET GETS BOUNCE IN POLLS BUT REMAINS
VULNERABLE

REF: A. TOKYO 3968


B. TOKYO 3970

Classified By: CDA Joseph R. Donovan for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (C) Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's sagging poll numbers have
received a boost with careful choices for his new Cabinet
that included former and current Cabinet members and several
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) faction heads. That said,
concerns remain about the fate of the Anti-terrorism bill,
which Foreign Minister Machimura and Defense Minister Komura
have promised to shepherd through the Diet. The LDP
leadership and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yosano have the skills
and political standing to rebuild stability and party unity
and to mitigate friction with the opposition Democratic Party
of Japan (DPJ),but criticism of the Abe administration
continues amid hints of a new money scandal involving LDP
General Council Chairman Toshihiro Nikai.


2. (C) Prior to the reshuffle, there was a feeling of "damned
if you do, damned if you don't" hanging in the air. By
choosing veteran politicians, Abe risked being accused of a
lack of freshness, but choosing fresh faces risked
accusations of inexperience. In the end, the new Cabinet
improved Abe's standing with the public and the LDP, but the
key will be maintaining this momentum. The next real test
will come with the opening of the Diet in September and
deliberations on the Anti-terrorism bill. Some DPJ Diet
members have put out conciliatory feelers on the bill, which
has led to increased optimism. Nevertheless, the Abe
administration can ill afford another scandal that erodes
public confidence further. End summary and comment.

Polls Up But Headwinds Blowing
--------------


3. (C) All the major Japanese dailies have reported that, in
the wake of August 27's Cabinet reshuffle (ref. A),the Abe
cabinet's support rate increased to the same level or higher
than before the July 27 Upper House election. The bad news
for the PM is that this support rate remains lower than the
non-support rate in most of the polls. Diet members have
complained to EMBASSY Tokyo of "strong headwinds" buffeting
the administration even after the new cabinet was announced
and predicted that critics would continue to take potshots at
Abe's leadership flaws.

Veterans and Faction Heads
--------------


4. (SBU) Abe boosted his popular support and won back
slightly higher poll numbers by filling his new Cabinet with
veterans (ref. B). Heeding LDP concerns, he chose capable
politicians with a history of accomplishments. Nine of his
choices are former or returning Cabinet members: Fukushiro
Nukaga, Nobutaka Machimura, Masahiko Komura, Kaoru Yosano,
Tetsuzo Fuyushiba, Yoshimi Watanabe, Akira Amari, Bunmei
Ibuki, Hiroko Ota, and Hiroya Masuda, a former prefectural
governor. Abe included all but one faction in his leadership
appointments and five out of the nine faction leaders:
Masahiko Komura, Nobutaka Machimura, Bunmei Ibuki, Taro Aso
and Toshihiro Nikai. While Abe will have to contend with
stronger, more independent politicians in the new cabinet,
these choices increase his chances of unifying the party
behind him.

Anti-Terrorism Bill Has New Shepherds

TOKYO 00004044 002 OF 002


--------------


5. (C) With the Diet set to open on September 10, the
Anti-terrorism Special Measures bill promises to remain the
session's focal point. Newly appointed Foreign Minister
Machimura lost no time connecting with his U.S. counterparts,
promising to do everything he could to get the Anti-terrorism
bill extended. For his part, Defense Minister Komura will
also stand firm against the DPJ's opposition to the bill. He
is known for his oratory skills and for having been an
extremely capable bureaucrat, but he has also been criticized
by politicians in his faction for not exerting himself.

Yosano, Aso, Nikai Bring Stability
--------------


6. (C) The appointment of Chief Cabinet Secretary Yosano
provides stability to Abe's Cabinet. Yosano is a prominent
policy expert with an ability to explain things clearly and
consistently and he is likely to go beyond his role as
government spokesman to play a central role in coordinating
different views. LDP Secretary General Aso will likely seek
to unify the party with the help of General Council Chairman
Nikai, who has friends across parties, including a
long-standing friendship with DPJ President Seiji Ozawa.
Nikai also is close to LDP Diet Affairs Committee chairman
Tadamori Oshima, whose behind-the-scenes coordination skills
are second only to Nikai's. However, Osaka observers warn
that Nikai may soon come under scrutiny for improperly
reporting his office expenses.
DONOVAN