UPDATED SCENESETTER FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 003516 SIPDIS SIPDIS MANILA FOR D/KAYE LEE E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV JA SUBJECT: UPDATED SCENESETTER FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY Classified By: AMBASSADOR J. THOMAS SCHIEFFER. REASONS 1.4 (B)/(D) ¶1. (C) Since our scenesetter last week, Prime Minister Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered an historic defeat in July 29 elections for the Upper House of the Diet, losing 27 of 64 incumbent seats and, thereby, ceding control of the Upper House to the opposition. (Abe's ruling coalition still holds a commanding 2/3 majority in the more powerful Lower House.) Abe, himself, is badly weakened, but at this point is still holding on to the party presidency and premiership, having received endorsement by the party executive leadership. Others within the LDP have called on Abe to resign, an opinion shared by the majority of Japanese in public opinion polling, but so far the LDP power brokers have not called for his head. Perhaps more importantly, no one in the party has stepped forward to try to take Abe's place. Several names, however, are circulating in Tokyo about a successor in the event that Abe does step down. They include: Foreign Minister Aso, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda, former Finance Minister Tanigaki, former SIPDIS Defense Minister Nukaga, and current Minister of Defense Koike, who assumed her portfolio just last month. ¶2. (C) For his part, Abe is trying to project an image of continuity within the post-election turbulence. He announced that he will call the Diet into session from August 7-10 to take care of limited housekeeping chores, including naming the new President and Vice President of the Upper House and swearing in newly elected members. Abe also has stated that he plans to reshuffle party executive positions, as well as the cabinet, indicating that such actions will take place around the first of September. Whether he makes it that far remains to be seen. In the meantime, there is palpable anxiety that Abe's weakness will cause Japan to be further sidelined on important foreign policy issues, such as the Six-Party Talks. ¶3. (C) A newly-emboldened opposition Democratic Party leader, Ichiro Ozawa, is making plenty of noise, declaring that he intends to make life difficult for Abe and his coalition, difficult enough to force a dissolution of the Lower House and general elections in which the opposition would have a strong chance of seizing power. Ozawa has publicly thrown down the gauntlet on an issue of importance to us (and for those who think in broad terms, for Japan as well),the need to extend the Anti-Terrorism Law, which provides authority for Japan to operate its refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in support of Afghan operations. Ozawa has publicly declared that the Democratic Party opposed the law when it was originally enacted and will oppose it again this fall. In response, Ambassador Schieffer has told the press that he would like to meet with Ozawa to persuade him why he should support the bill. The Ambassador will be making two points -- Japan's continued participation will allow countries like Pakistan to stay on patrol in the Indian Ocean, and Japan is a member of the international community and as such has responsibilities to others besides just the United States. ¶4. (C) The recent House Appropriations Committee renewal of the Obey Amendment restricting the release of F-22A Raptor was seen by the Japanese Government and media as a major setback to Japan's efforts to procure the airframe to replace its aging F-4 fleet. The Ministry of Defense (MOD) has signaled its intention to keep the Air Self Defense Force's F-4s in service for an additional year to provide more time for the GOJ to lobby the U.S. executive and legislative branches to sell the F-22 to Japan. On another security-related issue, Prime Minister Abe's effort to relax restrictions on the exercise of collective self-defense is sure to become more problematical in the wake of the election defeat. TOKYO 00003516 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Finally, we note that House approval of Representative Honda's Comfort Women Resolution on July 30 has sparked a predictably negative reaction in Japan. While the Prime Minister was restrained, labeling the House action "regrettable," the media has been more forceful in denouncing the House action. Representative Jim Saxton's resolution lauding Japan as one of our most reliable security partners and expressing appreciation for Japan's contribution to the war on terror, which was also approved on July 30 by the House Foreign Affairs Committee, received only limited inside-page coverage in the Japanese press. SCHIEFFER