LDP PROSPECTS FOR JULY 29 ELECTIONS WORSEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 003375 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: LDP PROSPECTS FOR JULY 29 ELECTIONS WORSEN REF: TOKYO 3262 Classified By: AMBASSADOR J. THOMAS SCHIEFFER, REASONS 1.4(B),(D). ¶1. (C) Summary. The ruling LDP-Komeito coalition looks almost certain to lose its majority in the July 29 Upper House elections. Voters continue to fault Prime Minister Abe for his perceived failure to deal adequately with the pension mess and a host of administration scandals. Continued verbal gaffes by Abe cabinet officials, and revelations of poor management practices at a nuclear power plant damaged in the July 16 earthquake in Niigata have done nothing to help. The latest polls show the opposition firmly in the lead in both electoral district and proportional voting, with most forecasts giving the LDP no more than 45 seats. Embassy contacts see little chance the ruling parties can pull out of this disastrous slide in the last five days of the campaign. End summary. ¶2. (C) In electoral district after electoral district, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is facing tighter races than would have been imaginable three years ago, especially in largely rural areas that have heretofore constituted the LDP heartland. Projections for the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito in the proportional races have also shifted in favor of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Public discontent over Prime Minister Abe's handling of pension accounting problems and his failure to deal decisively with administration officials over verbal gaffes and allegations of financial misconduct continue to hurt the LDP, according to Embassy and constituent post contacts. ¶3. (C) Embassy contacts in the ruling parties are more pessimistic than at any previous point in the Abe administration, and see little chance to lift the support rate in the short time remaining before Election Day on July ¶29. The LDP is still campaigning hard, but many local campaign workers admit there is little they can do to affect the outcome at this point. Relations with Komeito are also growing strained. Embassy contacts from the junior coalition partner question whether the LDP will hold up its end of the bargain and provide support for Komeito's proportional slate in exchange for backing by Komeito's Soka Gakkai religious supporters for LDP candidates in the electoral district races. ¶4. (C) The DPJ is not taking electoral success for granted, however. DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa recently downgraded his own predictions slightly, and DPJ Secretary General Hatoyama told the press on July 17 that campaign officials are "not allowed any optimism." Embassy contacts expect that all sides will work hard in the remaining days to galvanize campaign workers and supporters for the final push. ¶5. (C) Interlocutors from north to south have made clear that voter preferences do not represent a fundamental change in political orientation, but rather a rising level of dissatisfaction with the status quo and a desire to cast a protest vote against Prime Minister Abe and his administration. The protest vote phenomenon had been widely expected to play out in the proportional contest, but has only recently become evident in the electoral district races as well. The LDP has also failed to get much bounce from an unexciting group of "celebrity" candidates on the proportional slate. Special Advisor to the Prime Minister for Abductions Kyoko Nakayama and other well-known names have drawn only lackluster support. Embassy Projections Slide Further in Favor of DPJ -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) A steady flow of pessimistic predictions for the ruling parties from a number of previously "safe" LDP districts -- a trend reflected in media reporting -- has been factored into our projections. The seats are classified into "safe," "leaning," and "toss-up." Those categories are further divided into electoral district (D) and proportional list (P) seats. TOKYO 00003375 002 OF 004 Liberal Democratic Party=LDP Democratic Party of Japan=DPJ Social Democratic Party=SDP Japan Communist Party=JCP Safe (D/P) Leaning (D/P) Total (D/P) LDP: 30 (17/13) 8 (7/1) 38 (24/14) Komeito: 9 (3/6) 2 (0/2) 11 (3/8) DPJ: 37 (19/18) 13 (11/2) 50 (30/20) SDP: 2 (0/2) 0 2 (0/2) JCP: 3 (0/3) 1 (1/0) 4 (1/3) ¶7. (C) Movement over the past week days has been almost entirely in favor of the DPJ, which is up 10 seats from our previous projections (reftel),eight in the electoral districts and two in the proportional race. The LDP is down eight seats, all in the electoral districts. Komeito is down two seats, ONE each in the electoral and proportional columns. The possibility that the DPJ might take two seats in some multiple-seat districts is also becoming a concern for the ruling parties. The number of "toss-up" races, i.e., too close to call, stands at 13. Polls: Can They Get Any Worse? -------------- ¶8. (C) The LDP continues to slip further behind the DPJ in polls conducted on July 21-22 and published on July 23. DPJ support was up two points in the proportional list vote in the most recent Asahi poll, to 32 percent. The DPJ also gained two points in the electoral district races, to 34 percent. The LDP, meanwhile, slipped to 20 and 24 percent in those same two categories. The results of a weekend Kyodo poll were nearly identical. Even the number of LDP supporters who said they would vote for the LDP in that survey dropped from 63 percent down to 56.6 percent. The newest Mainichi poll showed overall party support rates for the DPJ and LDP at 31 percent and 21 percent, a double-digit lead for the DPJ. The Abe Cabinet's support rate remained fixed at 30 percent in the Asahi poll, but the nonsupport rose ONE point, to 56 percent. A Yomiuri poll released on July 20 provided the only glimmer of hope for the LDP, registering a rise of 4.6 points in the cabinet approval rating over the previous week, to 34.8 percent. The nonsupport rate dropped, but still remained over 50 percent. The Yomiuri poll, conducted from July 17-19, probably reflects the positive public attitudes toward the administration's strong response to the Niigata earthquake of July 16. All polls continue to point to a large number of undecided voters. ¶9. (C) A separate Yomiuri poll, released on July 18, shows the LDP in danger of winning as few as 11 of the 48 proportional seats. Embassy LDP contacts at party headquarters were initially hoping for something in the neighborhood of 20 proportional seats, but had recently resigned themselves to netting no more than 14. Poll numbers for the LDP are down in every age category in the Yomiuri poll, with the exception of respondents in their 70s. Only about 20 percent of respondents in their 20s, 30s, and 50s said they are planning to back the LDP. Responses indicate that the DPJ has already solidified support from more than 80 percent of its base, in addition to grabbing 10 percent of LDP supporters and 20 percent of unaffiliated voters. The survey found Komeito in danger of taking only six proportional seats, down from a target of eight, by failing thus far to pick up significant support from LDP and unaffiliated voters. ¶10. (C) An Asahi telephone poll targeting eligible voters on July 17 and 18 indicated that the LDP is likely to obtain just 41 seats overall, while the DPJ could easily win 57. Komeito, the SDP, and the JCP are projected to take 10, two, and four seats respectively in the Asahi survey, with the remaining seven going to independents and other minor parties. Only four of the 29 key single-district seats are TOKYO 00003375 003 OF 004 within the LDP's reach at this point, according to the Mainichi poll, while 13 are leaning heavily in favor of the DPJ. Pension Issue Still Very Much in Play -------------- ¶11. (C) An Internet-based poll published by Nikkei on July 18 showed that pensions remained the number ONE issue in the campaign, registering with 61 percent of respondents. Addressing "politics and money" scandals (at 53 percent) now replaced healthcare and welfare issues as the number two priority among voters, reflecting continuing public anger over allegations of financial misconduct by Agriculture Minister Akagi. A Yomiuri poll showed slight movement in favor of Abe's efforts to deal with the pension issue, up five points, but Embassy contacts in key battleground prefectures say there is nothing more Abe can do to address the issue at this point in the campaign. On the bright side for the LDP, over 60 percent of respondents say they do not believe the DPJ has come up with effective measures to deal with the pension problem either. Pressure also continues to grow on the consumption tax issue, although recent polls seem to reflect public frustration over the lack of debate, more than any particular position on a potential tax increase after the elections. ¶12. (C) Prime Minister Abe's quick reaction to the July 16 Niigata earthquake may have netted additional support in the short term, but subsequent revelations of design flaws and leaks of radioactive materials at the Kashiwazaki nuclear power plant have blunted those gains. The DPJ, after an initial response that included sending its own leaders to the affected areas, has scaled back on efforts to exploit the issue, announcing that it will refrain from further campaigning in Niigata out of respect for the victims. Embassy contacts do not believe that government relief efforts will play much of a role in voting outside of the affected area. ¶13. (C) It is unclear how the resumption of the Six-Party Talks in Beijing on July 18 and the bilateral Japan-DPRK meeting on July 19 will play with the electorate. Abe continues to win points from conservatives for sticking to his tough line on the abductions issue, but risks criticism from some quarters that he is allowing Japan to be marginalized in the discussions. Abe Gets Little Help From His Friends -------------- ¶14. (C) In yet another indication of widespread anger over administration scandals and the perceived disconnect between the Prime Minister's policy priorities and the needs of the nation, particularly in rural areas, two LDP Upper House incumbents facing close races offered uncharacteristically blunt criticism of Abe in recent days. On July 16, Kohei Tamura told supporters in his rural Kochi electoral district that he would "feel like a fool" if Abe campaigned in Kochi on his "Beautiful Country" platform. Abe subsequently announced that he would not stump in Kochi on July 21, as originally planned, putting an already tenuous LDP lead there into the possible loss column. ¶15. (C) In Osaka the following day, Shuzen Tanigawa revealed in a speech that he had advised Abe to dismiss Agriculture Minister Akagi over his alleged involvement in a financial scandal. Tanigawa also lambasted Akagi for refusing to offer an explanation for his bandaged face and disheveled appearance before the media. A Consulate General Osaka-Kobe contact attributes these and other examples of "LDP blowback" to displeasure over administration policy priorities, which have largely ignored rural areas. This latest Akagi incident has raised serious questions in the media, putting Abe on the defensive for not removing Akagi over alleged financial malfeasance. TOKYO 00003375 004 OF 004 ¶16. (C) On July 20, Foreign Minister Aso uttered an astounding verbal gaffe during a campaign speech before a mostly elderly crowd in Toyama when he said 'even a person with Alzheimer's Disease could understand the difference in price between Japanese and Chinese rice'. The single-seat Toyama district is now leaning firmly in the direction of the DPJ. And in Nagasaki, the LDP is facing a stronger than expected challenge in the wake of former Defense Minister Kyuma's reference to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and his own Nagasaki home district as "unavoidable." Absentee Voting on the Rise -------------- ¶17. (C) The number of absentee ballots filed by voters is already up over 50 percent from the same period during the 2004 Upper House campaign, according to a poll conducted by the Communications Ministry from July 13 to 15. With election day falling on the first weekend after the close of the school term, all parties have been exhorting their supporters to vote before they leave for vacation. Most Embassy contacts believe the surge in absentee ballots is attributable to protest votes, reflecting the electorate's interest in sending a strong message to Abe. Predictions for overall voter turnout continue to run above average, in the low- to mid-60s, another bad omen for the LDP. ¶18. (U) For previous Embassy reporting and other reference materials related to the July 29 Upper House elections, please click on the link to the elections page on Embassy Tokyo's classified intranet website. SCHIEFFER