STILL SLIM CHANCE FOR DOHA PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 002949

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

USTR FOR AUSTR WENDY CUTLER AND MICHAEL BEEMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017
TAGS: ECON ETRD EAGR JA
SUBJECT: STILL SLIM CHANCE FOR DOHA PROGRESS


Classified By: Economic Counselor Daniel Fantozzi for Reasons 1.4 (a) a
nd (d)

Summary
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1. (C) "A pity," was how Vice Trade Minister Toshiaki
Kitamura termed the collapse of last week's G-4 Doha Round
meeting when outgoing EMIN met him in a farewell call on
June 25. Kitamura and other officials from the Trade and
Foreign Ministries have told us that the Japanese
government is trying to piece together what happened in
Potsdam and identify a way forward. Japan, the officials
claim, remains committed to a successful outcome of the
Round, but there is substantial uncertainty about
the WTO roadmap but also to do with Japanese Upper House
elections at the end of July. End summary


2. (C) In a farewell call June 25 for outgoing EMIN, Vice
Trade Minister Toshiaki Kitamura expressed disappointment
that the G-4 meeting broke down the previous week in Potsdam.

Trade Minister Amari and Agriculture Minister Akagi were
getting ready to travel to Germany to attend a follow on
G-6 meeting. Just 10 hours before the G-4 meeting came to
an abrupt halt, according to Kitamura, he had briefed Amari
that his sources were indicating room for "convergence" at
Potsdam. A MOFA official we talked to on June 21 while the
G-4 meeting was taking place was similarly upbeat.


3. (C) Kitamura told EMIN that he was not ready to
throw in the towel on the Round yet. He pointed to WTO
Director General Lamy's remarks after the G-4 meeting
failed to produce a breakthrough. Lamy indicated that he
would look for the chairs of the NAMA and Agriculture
negotiations to issue updated texts for the negotiations as
soon as possible and go from there. If the atmosphere is
right, Kitamura said, maybe there could be a ministerial
soon after that. The Vice Minister quipped that a year ago
he had described Doha as in "intensive care," but in any
case it was "still alive."


4. (C) At the working level, MOFA and METI officials we
talked to separately indicated Japan was still in
information gathering mode. They recognize that, at least
in the short term, for the Round to move forward it will be
in the hands of WTO Director General Lamy and the Chairs of
the NAMA and Agriculture Negotiations. When the Chairs
will be in a position to distribute texts to member states
is a big question. Of even greater concern, according to
Akira Ookoochi, Senior Deputy Director of the Multilateral
Trade Division at MOFA, was what priority the U.S.
administration would attach to the Round going forward. He
and his colleagues were "very anxious."


5. (C) At METI, Kazumi Nishikawa, Deputy Director of the
Multilateral Trade Division, told us his office was trying
to piece together what happened in Potsdam. He said he was
concerned that some of the concessions that the United
States and EU appeared to be willing to make in the context
of the G-4 on NAMA -- particularly on tariff coefficients
-- would be hard to take back now in meetings with the full
WTO membership. He also asked for an update on where Trade
Promotion Authority (TPA) stood in the Doha context and
also whether USTR Schwab planned to attend the APEC
Ministers' Meeting on July 5. Echoing his colleague at
MOFA, he acknowledged that Japanese Upper House elections
in late July loomed over the Doha discussion at senior
levels, but was more interested in talking about the
political climate for the Trade Round in Washington.
schieffer