MACHIMURA DISCUSSES U.S. TRIP, ELECTIONS, AND PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002307

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV JA
SUBJECT: MACHIMURA DISCUSSES U.S. TRIP, ELECTIONS, AND PM
ABE IN MAY 23 MEETING WITH DCM


Classified By: DCM JOE DONOVAN, REASONS 1.4(B),(D).


1. (C) Summary. Lower House Diet member and former Foreign
Minister Machimura, in a May 23 conversation with the DCM,
predicted that the ruling coalition would maintain its
majority in the Upper House in the July elections, but only
by a slim margin. He attributed PM Abe's rise in the polls
to his demonstration of strong leadership through recent
diplomatic and legislative successes. Machimura leaves for
the United States on May 24, where he will meet with U.S.
officials and accept an honorary degree from Wesleyan
University. End Summary.

U.S. Visit
--------------

2. (C) In a meeting with the DCM at his ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) faction office on May 23, Lower House
Diet member Nobutaka Machimura confirmed that will depart for
a one-week trip to the United States on May 24. In
Washington, he is scheduled to meet with Deputy Secretary
Negroponte, Deputy National Security Advisor Crouch, and
Senator Daniel Inouye. On May 25, at 11:30 a.m., he will fly
to New York for a meeting with UN Secretary General Ban Ki
Moon, his counterpart when he was foreign minister in the
Koizumi Cabinet. He will also attend a reception for Ban
hosted jointly by Japan, China, and Korea. On May 27,
Machimura will receive an honorary doctorate degree from
Wesleyan University, where he spent his junior year in
college.

Upper House Elections
--------------

3. (C) The LDP and coalition partner Komeito will maintain
their majority in the House of Councilors in the July
elections, Machimura predicted, but only by a very slim
margin. Should the coalition miss the mark by just one or
two seats, he noted, it might be possible to make up the
difference by bringing in Tamisuke Watanuki's small Kokumin
Shinto party, as long as they pledge to support the ruling
party's postal privatization efforts. This scenario assumes
no major missteps by Prime Minister Abe or the party over the
next two months, he added, citing the example of former Prime
Minister Hashimoto, who lost an election after reneging on
his promise that he would not consider raising the
consumption tax. Machimura described voters as "very
volatile" right now.


4. (C) His own faction, the largest in the LDP, has 10
candidates up for election in the electoral district races,
and another seven running on the proportional party list,
Machimura said. In the 10 electoral district races, only
faction candidates in Chiba, Osaka, and Okinawa are
considered vulnerable, he noted. He described the
proportional list races as simply too difficult to forecast,
especially since the new system for deciding proportional
list seats has only been in place for the past two Upper
House elections. In the 2004 race, each proportional list
candidate needed to win approximately 150,000 votes to earn a
seat. He expects that number to rise to as many as 200,000
votes per candidate this year. Machimura completely
dismissed rumors of a double election, noting that the LDP
would almost certainly lose seats in the Lower House.

PM Abe's Leadership
--------------

5. (C) Machimura credited the recent rise in Prime Minister
Abe's cabinet support rate to his steady string of diplomatic
successes and strong track record in the Diet. April summits
with President Bush and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, and his
swing through Middle Eastern capitals, have definitely helped
to improve his image, Machimura asserted. Equally important,
however, has been his ability to follow through on his
promised legislative agenda, including the National
Referendum Bill, the U.S. Forces Realignment Bill, and
education-related legislation. In a sense, Machimura noted,
voters are not really focused on the content of the

TOKYO 00002307 002 OF 002


legislation. They are just pleased to see the Prime Minster
exercising leadership and effecting change.

Comment
--------------

6. (C) A visit to the offices of the Machimura Faction,
housed in the historic old wing of the Akasaka Prince Hotel,
is an eye-opening reminder that the LDP factions are alive
and well, despite the best efforts of former Prime Minister
Koizumi. Asked about his party's chances in the elections,
Machimura immediately defaulted to the figures for his own
faction, before turning to the overall numbers for the LDP as
a whole. Meanwhile, dozens of Diet members, party staffers,
and others lined the narrow hallways leading to Machimura's
office throughout the 20 minutes that the DCM was in the
building, and former Prime Minister and faction leader
Yoshiro Mori walked out of Machimura's office just as we
entered.

Bio Note
--------------

7. (SBU) Nobutaka Machimura, 63, succeeded Yoshiro Mori as
the head of the Liberal Democratic Party's largest faction
(89 members) in October 2006. He chairs the LDP Foreign
Affairs Research Committee and a subcommittee of the Tax
Committee, and sits on the International Terrorism and
Election panels. He served as Minister of Education from
1997 to 1998, and as MEXT Minister from 2000 to 2001. He was
Director General of the LDP's Election Bureau for two years,
just prior to succeeding Yoriko Kawaguchi as Foreign Minister
under PM Koizumi in 2004.


8. (C) Machimura is a perennial contender for the Prime
Minister job, a reason cited by Mori when he named him
faction head last year. He was not an early advocate for
Abe's candidacy during the LDP presidential campaign in
September 2006, however, and was not tapped for a senior post
in the new administration. He has since become one of the
Prime Minister's stronger defenders, leading some news
reports to question whether he is positioning himself for the
Chief Cabinet Secretary job in the event of a post-election
Cabinet reshuffle. Machimura conducted the meeting in
English.
SCHIEFFER