ABE GETS BOOST FROM SUMMIT; PRESS COVERAGE POSITIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001949 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV JA SUBJECT: ABE GETS BOOST FROM SUMMIT; PRESS COVERAGE POSITIVE Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Joe Donovan. Reasons: 1.4(B),(D). ¶1. (C) Summary. Polls taken shortly after Prime Minister Abe met April 27 with President Bush show Abe's support rate has risen close to 10 percent since March, with an equivalent decline in those saying they oppose Abe. While the shift is not only because of Abe's successful visit to the U.S., the Japanese public has clearly reacted positively to Abe's handling of the U.S.-Japan relationship, both before and after the summit. Most local press reports have labeled the "George and Shinzo" summit a success, citing discussions of DPRK policy, the comfort women, DPRI, UN reform, climate change, and other key issues as meeting expectations on both sides, despite remaining differences. End summary. ¶2. (C) Regular monthly polls taken by the Nikkei and Mainichi newspapers shortly after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's April 26-27 summit with the President show that the support rate for the Abe Cabinet has risen by as many as 10 points since March. The nonsupport rate has recorded a nearly equivalent decline. While the shift cannot be attributed directly to Abe's visit to the U.S., responses indicate a greater confidence in his leadership. Other factors unrelated to the summit may include the visit by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to Tokyo two weeks earlier, a solid showing in recent local elections and Upper House by-elections, and the absence of recent scandals or gaffes involving administration figures. ¶3. (C) Abe's remarkably productive series of legislative successes, including passage of extension of Japanese deployments in the Middle East and support for US-Japan alliance transformation, have also improved his reputation as a results-oriented leader. Detailed responses from those polled indicate many now have greater confidence in Abe's leadership. Importantly for Abe, support is up across all demographic sectors, including young people and women, groups that supported Koizumi but were predicted to be increasingly alienated by Abe's conservative agenda. The bounce-back in Prime Minister Abe's popularity comes just in time to help rally support for the ruling coalition in advance of critical Upper House elections in July. ¶4. (C) Japanese media coverage of PM Abe's April 26-27 visit to the United States has been positive. While the Japanese media is unfailingly critical and never misses opportunities to snipe at the country's leaders, most local press reports have labeled the "George and Shinzo" summit a success, noting that both sides went to great lengths to ensure that the leaders said exactly the right things on the DPRK, comfort women, defense realignment, economic policy, UN reform, climate change, and other key issues for the bilateral relationship. Reporting has noted, but not dwelled on, the fact that the visit did little to erase existing differences between the two leaders on many of these issues. ¶5. (C) While the Japanese media have been quick to point out that Abe has yet to establish the kind of personal relationship with President Bush enjoyed by his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, personal touches, such as the President escorting Abe from Blair House to the White House, have received prominent play. In fact, Koizumi's long-time personal secretary complain angrily that PR advisors to Abe were spinning the BLair House greeting and Camp David talks as a warmer reception than had been accorded his boss. Close media attention has also been paid to the developing relationship between the two First Ladies, after nearly six years under the divorced Koizumi. ¶6. (C) First and foremost, from the Japanese perspective, the summit was viewed as an opportunity to coordinate policy on the DPRK, which many Japanese believe has shifted too quickly in the direction of dialogue. President Bush allayed these worries by reassuring Abe that he is amenable to TOKYO 00001949 002 OF 002 ratcheting up the pressure again, if the DPRK fails to meet its obligations, and promising to factor abductions into any decision to lift the DPRK's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Abe, in meetings with both President Bush and congressional leaders, avoided falling into a trap over historical issues, apologizing "as a human being and as the Prime Minister" for the "painful experiences" of the comfort women, while avoiding any reference to official involvement in forcing women to work as prostitutes in the wartime comfort stations. DONOVAN