FM ASO'S PARTICIPATION AT COMPACT MEETING SEEMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 001762 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR S/I SATTERFIELD AND NEA/I TAECKER TREASURY FOR DEPSEC KIMMITT, IA/SAEED, MATHIASEN AND ALVO E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2017 TAGS: EAID EFIN PREL IZ JA SUBJECT: FM ASO'S PARTICIPATION AT COMPACT MEETING SEEMS UNLIKELY REF: A. TOKYO 1742 ¶B. TOKYO 1658 ¶C. STATE 50497 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4(b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) Deputy Chief of Mission, following up on Ambassador's April 18 telephone conversation with Foreign Minister Aso (ref A),met April 20 with MOFA Director General for Middle Eastern and African Affairs Norihiro Okuda to reiterate the Secretary's oral message urging FM Aso's attendance at the SIPDIS May 3 International Compact with Iraq meeting in Egypt (ref C). Okuda replied that he is on our side, and that he has been urging Aso to attend the meeting. However, he conceded that he still does not know whether Aso will attend and predicted that the odds are he will not. He briefed DCM on Aso's telephone conversation with Iraqi FM Zebari (ref A) and said Zebari undertook to call Foreign Minister Lavrov to discuss changing the venue of his meeting with Aso to Egypt. Okuda asked whether the Department has made any efforts to have Lavrov move the meeting, and DCM replied that this was under active consideration. ¶2. (C) Current plans, Okuda told DCM, call for Japan to be represented at the Compact meeting by National Security Advisor Yoriko Koike, a former Minister and current member of the Diet. Koike, an Arabic speaker who graduated from University of Cairo, is one of Prime Minister Abe's key advisors on the Middle East and will be with the Prime Minister when he visits Egypt on May 2. She will remain behind to attend the May 3 ICI meeting. Okuda hopes that, protocol-wise, Koike's presence will count as "ministerial level." Okuda will also attend, as will Ambassador in Charge of Reconstruction Assistance to Iraq and Afghanistan Gotaro Ogawa. Okuda confirmed FM Aso will arrive in time to participate in the May 4 Neighbors Meeting. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: Press reports April 20 indicate Aso has announced he will visit the U.S., Russia, and Egypt, even though Okuda was unable to confirm that Aso has made up his mind to go to Moscow. It seems to us that these press reports make it even more unlikely that Aso will skip Moscow in favor of the ICI meeting. At this point, unless Lavrov can be pesuaded to attend, we assess that it will be highly unlikely that Aso will change his plans and attend. END COMMENT. SCHIEFFER