APRIL 22 UPPER HOUSE BY-ELECTIONS POSE ANOTHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001761 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2017 TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: APRIL 22 UPPER HOUSE BY-ELECTIONS POSE ANOTHER TEST FOR ABE; OVERSHADOW LOCAL RACES REF: A. TOKYO 1521 ¶B. TOKYO 1537 ¶C. TOKYO 1560 Classified By: AMBASSADOR J.T. SCHIEFFER, REASONS 1.4(B),(D). ¶1. (C) Summary. All eyes are on key Upper House by-elections in Okinawa and Fukushima prefectures, as Japan goes to the polls again on April 22. While the main event is supposed to be the second round of the unified local elections that same day, the significance of the hundreds of mayoral and local assembly races pales by comparison to the role the two by-elections will play in the battle between the ruling parties and the opposition for control of the House of Councilors in July. The ruling coalition needs to win a total of 65 seats to maintain a majority in the Upper House, and success in the by-elections on Sunday can help cut their margin of victory. Okinawa is currently leaning slightly toward the ruling LDP, and Fukushima for the opposition DPJ, but the close margins and large numbers of unaffiliated and undecided voters in both electoral districts could still swing the results either way. End summary. Local elections: Little of national consequence -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) Japan will hold the second round of unified local elections on Sunday, April 22 (ref A). At stake this time are the election of 92 city mayors and 310 city assemblies, 13 Tokyo ward mayors and 21 ward assemblies, 149 town and village mayors, and 448 town and village assemblies. A number of the races have already been decided, as many candidates were running unopposed. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is coming off victories in 11 of 13 gubernatorial races in the first round of local elections on April 8 (refs B, C),and holds an overwhelming majority of prefectural assembly seats, despite gains by the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Reflecting the truly local nature of these elections and the distance from national-level politics, two of the smaller parties are running the most candidates in the city assembly races -- junior ruling coalition partner Komeito, with 974, and the Japan Communist Party (JCP),with 868. The LDP and DPJ are running only 670 and 408, by contrast. Many more are running as independents. Nationwide, an April 17 Asahi telephone poll showed 41 percent of 1,807 respondents not supporting any political party. The LDP registered 34 percent support, compared to 14 percent for the DPJ. ¶3. (C) The April 8 elections were portrayed by the media as a prelude to crucial Upper House Diet elections in July, with five gubernatorial race match-ups between the LDP and the DPJ. The second round will have none of those national implications. The two major parties will go head-to-head in seven of the city mayoral races, including Ginowan City, the location of MCAS Futenma. Mayor Ina, the first-term, reformist, anti-base incumbent, started off strong, but has seen his lead slip. In another base-hosting community, the Mayor of Sasebo is stepping down, but has anointed Vice Mayor Noguchi as a successor, signaling little real change. Many Embassy contacts noted a slight generational shift on April 8, as some younger DPJ candidates unseated LDP incumbents, a trend that may continue in the second round. Another big factor in the first round, the effect of municipal consolidations on local political organizations, will also continue to be felt in these upcoming races. Parties place big stakes on Upper House by-elections -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Overshadowing the local races on April 22 are Upper House by-elections to fill vacated seats in Okinawa and Fukushima. Both seats were formerly held by the DPJ, so any victories by the ruling LDP will improve their margin for retaining a majority in the Upper House when another 121 seats are contested in July. Victory for the DPJ will TOKYO 00001761 002 OF 003 provide a much-needed boost to the struggling opposition. DPJ chief Ichiro Ozawa has been criticized for ignoring his party and Diet management responsibilities to concentrate on winning enough seats to either gain an outright majority, or at least disrupt the LDP's dominance, in July. His tactics gained a certain amount of credibility after the DPJ's positive showing in the prefectural assembly races, much of which was credited to Ozawa's personal focus on candidate selection and campaigning. Okinawa: Close race in "kitchen" campaign -------------- ¶5. (C) The Okinawa by-election to fill the Upper House seat vacated by failed gubernatorial candidate Keiko Itokazu in November is the race to watch. Polls have consistently shown ruling coalition candidate Aiko Shimajiri, 42, a former Naha City assembly member and first-time candidate for national office, with a slight lead, but the race is really too close to call. An April 15 Yomiuri Shimbun telephone poll showed the candidates nearly tied, with both pulling in approximately 80 percent of their party base. Over 30 percent of voters remain undecided, however. According to Embassy and Consulate General Naha contacts, the ruling parties are focusing hard on this race. The two parties usually split the two Okinawa seats. Prime Minister Abe, DPJ leader Ozawa and senior officials from every party have campaigned heavily in Okinawa. ¶6. (C) LDP candidate Shimajiri, a mother of four, is an outsider in many ways. A native of Sendai, far to the north of Japan, she and her husband were both DPJ members until quite recently. Her folksy campaign based on the "politics of the kitchen" has won her broad appeal, however. Her opponent, Yoshimasa Karimata, 57, a former chairman of the Okinawa chapter of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation ("Rengo") has the support of the opposition parties, including the local Social Mass party. His campaign has focused largely on economic disparities, the rallying cry of DPJ chief Ichiro Ozawa and an important issue in Okinawa, which has a strong historical sense of sacrificing for the mainland. Certainly some voters will be driven by the perception that regional disparities are increasing. ¶7. (SBU) An April 14-15 telephone survey carried out by the Asahi Shimbun and Okinawa Times found 64 percent of respondents choosing livelihood issues as most important in the campaign, with only 15 percent citing base concerns, continuing a trend in Okinawa politics. Karimata has spoken out against the Futenma relocation plan in some of his speeches, but base issues rank a lowly nine out of ten in his policy manifesto. Consulate General Naha contacts note that the opposition may have learned a lesson from Itokazu's failure to win the governor's race on a strident anti-base platform. A bigger issue may be the local outcry over textbook revisions that downplay government responsibility for civilian mass suicides during the WWII Battle of Okinawa. Okinawa marked record low turnout in the 2004 Upper House race, at just over 54 percent. Fukushima: DPJ likely to retain seat -------------- ¶8. (C) The Fukushima race, where the outcome appears to be a DPJ win, has received markedly less coverage than Okinawa. DPJ candidate Teruhiko Masahiko, 59, a former three-term Lower House Diet member, has a lead in the polls, getting support from a sizable proportion of LDP and unaffiliated voters. LDP challenger Isamu Yamaguchi, 69, former speaker of the prefectural assembly, has the support of just 40 percent of LDP voters at this point. However, an even higher percentage of voters than in Okinawa, upwards of 50 percent, remain undecided. Fukushima elected a DPJ governor in November 2006, and the Diet seat being contested on April 22 has traditionally belonged to the DPJ. The entire DPJ executive lineup has campaigned in Fukushima, hoping to keep TOKYO 00001761 003 OF 003 this one out of the LDP's win column, but the LDP is not conceding defeat. LDP Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa made his seventh visit of the campaign to Fukushima on April 15, using street corner speeches to stress the benefits of having a ruling party lawmaker in the Diet. Corruption scandals have tainted the LDP establishment in Fukushima recently. A quick primer on the July elections -------------- ¶9. (C) The LDP holds 66 of the 121 seats up for election in the House of Councilors this year, while the DPJ holds 32. The ruling coalition will need to win 65 seats in order to maintain a majority, 52 for the LDP and 13 for Komeito. LDP strategists hope the outcome of the by-elections in Okinawa and Fukushima will reduce that total. A sizable number of the LDP Upper House members up for reelection won their seats in 2001, at the height of "Koizumi fever," when his approval rating was between 75 and 90 percent. Without Koizumi's coattail effect, these Upper House members are vulnerable in the current political environment, where Prime Minister Abe's popularity hovers around 40 percent. Having won only 49 seats in 2004 under Koizumi, the LDP leadership has reasons for concern. Support from the well-oiled and highly organized Komeito machine is vital, and will provide the margin of victory in a number of races where the LDP might otherwise lose to the DPJ. Komeito's key role in the elections requires Abe and the LDP to go slow or remain silent on hot-button issues -- like constitutional reform, collective self-defense, or a more assertive use of the Self-Defense Forces -- all issues that could alienate the still pacifist-leaning base of the Komeito and its parent Buddhist religious organization, the Soka Gakkai. SCHIEFFER