IRAQ PRIME MINISTER MALIKI'S VISIT TO JAPAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001710 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017 TAGS: PREL EFIN EAID IZ JA SUBJECT: IRAQ PRIME MINISTER MALIKI'S VISIT TO JAPAN REF: A. TOKYO 1658 ¶B. TOKYO 1523 Classified By: Ambassador J. T. Schieffer for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Abe told Prime Minister Maliki that Japan fully supports his government and looks to him to continue to lead in Iraq, during Maliki's April 8-11 visit to Tokyo. Abe advised Maliki that he must take steps to shore up the security situation by this summer, do more to promote reconciliation, and move forward with constitutional and electoral law reforms that will assure all Iraqis they have a stake in the political process and a voice in their own futures. Abe and Maliki agreed on the goal of building a long-term, strategic partnership, and discussed the need for enhanced economic contacts and the desire of Japanese companies to play a more active role in the reconstruction of Iraq. The two sides exchanged notes for the second tranche of Japanese yen loan projects, and announced two new projects. Maliki urged Abe to dispatch Foreign Minister Aso to the International Compact with Iraq meeting May 3 in Egypt, but Abe did not respond with a firm commitment to do so. Both MOFA and Embassy Tokyo contacts in Iraq's Embassy characterized the visit as "very successful." END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki visited Tokyo April 8-11, 2007, accompanied by Minister of Oil Husayn al-Shahristani; Minister of Electricity Karim Wahid al-Hasan; Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Fawzi al-Hariri; Minister of Municipal Affairs and Public Works Riyadh Gharib; Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Rafi al-Issawi, and others. During the visit Maliki met with Prime Minister Abe, who also hosted a dinner in his honor, and was received by the Emperor. He also met with Foreign Minister Aso, Minister of Defense Kyuma, and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Amari. In a meeting with the press Maliki said there is no need to set a timetable for the withdrawal of coalition forces. He and members of his delegation also met with Japanese commercial leaders. Iraqi Ambassador to Japan Dr. Ghanim al-Jumaily told Embassy Tokyo Political Officer that the main goal of Maliki's visit was to solidify relations with Japan and to begin to develop a bilateral partnership in all fields, but particularly in the economic field. As for the Japanese, their goal, explained our MOFA contacts, was to �00A;establish a long-term strategic partnership with Iraq, noting historically warm relations and the fact that Iraq sits atop the world's third largest oil reserve. -------------- "YOU'RE THE ONE," BUT TIME TO GET SERIOUS -------------- ¶3. (C) Prime Minister Abe delivered a strong message of political support to Iraq and to Maliki personally, according to both Jumaily and MOFA Second Middle East Principal Deputy Director Motosada Matano. Abe told Maliki that Japan recognizes his government as the only viable leadership for Iraq and that no replacement is possible. According to Matano, the message was: "You're the one; you can lead Iraq; we're counting on you." Japan is committed to supporting and improving its relations with the Maliki government, Abe told Maliki, and added he is confident the Diet will pass legislation to enable the continued deployment to Iraq of Japan's Air Self Defense Force units. ¶4. (C) Maliki also received a firm message from Abe that now is the time to take decisive action, reported both Jumaily and Matano. According to Jumaily, Abe addressed the following points: -- Security: Japan understands Maliki's government is doing the best it can to improve security, but based on changing political realities in Washington, "you need to make significant changes that will yield results by summer; time is of the essence." -- Reconciliation: The government of Iraq must do more to advance the reconciliation process. A distinction must be made between terrorists who cannot be negotiated with and insurgents who can be brought into the political process if they believe they have a role to play and a brighter future. -- Constitutional and election law reform: Changes must be made so the constitution can serve as a platform for all political parties. Although the election process as written is not sectarian, in reality the process encourages sectarian TOKYO 00001710 002 OF 003 outcomes. Steps must somehow be taken to assure the election process becomes less sectarian in nature and that everyone is made to believe they have a stake in the decision making process. Maliki listened to Abe's remarks and replied that he agreed with them. -------------- MORE ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT DESIRED -------------- ¶5. (C) Iraq wants to work with Japan to expedite the yen loan process and to increase the level of participation by Japanese firms in the reconstruction process, Maliki told Prime Minister Abe, according to Jumaily. Opportunities for Japanese firms exist within the framework of the $13 billion reconstruction fund, and the security situation in the Kurdish region and in some areas of the south is safe enough to permit Japanese commercial activities, Maliki urged. According to Jumaily, Abe replied Japanese firms are anxious to do business with Iraq and requested Iraqi government cooperation in assisting them to win contracts. ¶6. (U) As predicted (reftel B),there was an exchange of notes on the second tranche of Japanese yen loan projects, and two additional projects were announced. The exchange of notes was for a total amount of $920 million and covers four projects: Khor al-Zubiar Fertilizer Plant Rehabilitation Project, Crude Oil Export Facility Reconstruction Project, Engineering Services for Basrah Refinery Upgrading Project, and Electricity Sector Reconstruction Project. The two new projects announced, for which exchange of notes will be signed later, include a Basrah Water Supply Improvement Project and an Electricity Sector Reconstruction Project in the Kurdistan Region, together worth approximately $490 million. -------------- IRAQ COMPACT AND NEIGHBORS MEETINGS -------------- ¶7. (C) PM Maliki also briefed PM Abe on the upcoming Iraq Compact and Neighbors meetings in Egypt and stressed that Foreign Minister Aso must be present at both events. Abe refused to make a firm commitment about Aso's participation in both meetings, saying only "I look forward to them." (NOTE: Aso apparently has a scheduling conflict for the May 3 Compact meeting, with a commitment to be in Russia that day; there is a debate within MOFA about what he should do (reftel A). Jumaily said Foreign Minister Zebari will follow up with a telephone call to Aso, and that LDP Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa also agreed to "pressure" Aso to encourage his attendance at the May 3 meeting. END NOTE.) -------------- MEETING WITH THE EMPEROR -------------- ¶8. (C) In a meeting with the Emperor, Maliki thanked him for the support Japan has given Iraq, expressed Iraq's desire to build a broad partnership with Japan, and also described the dreams Iraqis have of rebuilding their country with the help of their friends, according to Jumaily. Matano refused to comment on Maliki's meeting with the Emperor, saying that to do so would improperly politicize the Emperor's role. He also confided that MOFA does not ordinarily receive readouts of Chief of Government meetings with the Emperor, which are considered purely ceremonial in nature. -------------- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED? -------------- ¶9. (C) Both Jumaily and Matano characterized the visit as having been very successful. Both sides clearly wish to enhance their already good relationship and believe that this visit, following Vice President al-Hashimi's earlier visit, clearly advanced this goal. But Jumaily expressed to Political Officer his frustration with his government's lack of ability to follow up on such positive meetings. He confided that both Maliki and Hashimi recognize the Iraqi government is not performing and must improve. The Prime Minister lacks confidence in many of his ministers but is powerless to change them. In addition, Jumaily lamented that each faction within the government, and even the subfactions TOKYO 00001710 003 OF 003 within them, seem to be jockeying for personal advantage at the expense of the welfare of the country as a whole. It is not enough, he said, to have positive meetings between Prime Ministers if the Iraqi ministries lack the capacity to follow through and support the agreements reached by the leaders. ¶10. (C) Jumaily also commented to an Embassy Tokyo political officer about the reconciliation conference Japan hosted for Iraqi parliamentarians between the visits of Vice President Hashimi and PM Maliki. He observed that the conference really didn't have that much value. It was an educational seminar that focused on case studies such as Cambodia, Northern Ireland, and East Timor. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Despite Japan's perception that Maliki faces subtly rising political and public opposition, the Abe government is clearly putting all its eggs in the Maliki basket. Tokyo continues to support the democratization of Iraq and is hopeful that its support, both political and financial, will lead to an open door for Japanese firms as the security situation eventually improves. Most importantly, Japan believes the stability of Iraq is essential to its national interests, as it imports 90 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East region. SCHIEFFER