MEDIA SPINS ELECTIONS AS WIN FOR DPJ DESPITE ONLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001560

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: MEDIA SPINS ELECTIONS AS WIN FOR DPJ DESPITE ONLY
MODEST GAINS


Classified By: DCM Joseph R. Donovan. Reasons: 1.4(B),(D).


1. (SBU) Summary. Media analysis April 10 focused on
opposition DPJ gains in the April 8 prefectural and municipal
assembly races. While it is true that the DPJ made inroads
into some districts where they had never held seats before,
and even gained majorities in a few assemblies, the overall
numbers are still very much in favor of the ruling LDP. End
summary.


2. (SBU) Japanese media on April 10 trumpeted gains by the
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in the April 8
unified local elections. This despite decent returns for the
ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner
Komeito that assure them of continued dominance of local
political machinery in the run up to crucial July House of
Councilors elections. Even though the LDP secured its lowest
percentage of total prefectural assembly seats in history, it
still holds over 42 percent nationwide, and well over a
majority when Komeito seats are included in the count
(reftel). The DPJ's success in adding 175 new seats leaves
them with just under 15 percent of the total, rising to
barely 20 percent if the Japan Socialist Party and Japan
Communist Party are added. (Note: For a chart detailing the
results in the prefectural and municipal assembly elections,
please click here: 2007 Election Results in Japan.)


3. (C) Looking at the overall distribution of seats in the
prefectural and municipal assemblies, the gains for the DPJ
are actually rather small. For example, the DPJ gained just
one seat each in Kochi and Kagoshima prefectures, where they
previously had none, and held onto their only seat in
Yamagata. In the 15 big city assembly races, the DPJ also
made gains in some municipalities, including the heavily
urbanized areas surrounding Tokyo, and captured a majority in
Nagoya and Kawasaki. The fact that they gained any seats at
all in some of the LDP's traditional rural strongholds is
significant in and of itself, but won't change the local
political dynamic, or provide enough additional "foot
soldiers" to affect the outcome of the July Upper House
campaigns.


4. (C) As one Embassy media contact noted: "If you look at
the results closely, you'll see that the DPJ could not
establish candidates in many districts, especially in the
rural areas; the DPJ has its limits." At the same time,
Embassy contacts in the LDP do not deny that they made
mistakes in failing to pay adequate attention to a number of
important local races, losing to young DPJ candidates with
fresh ideas. The DPJ's gains were not necessarily the LDP's
losses, however, as independents and other minor party
candidates also dropped 138 seats from the 2003 elections.
(Note: Due to municipal mergers, the total number of
prefectural assembly seats dropped from 2634 in 2003, to 2544
in 2007. End note.) Media reports characterizing the April
8 election results as demonstrating that the DPJ is gradually
gaining regional strength and becoming a viable opposition
party within a two-party system may also be somewhat
overstated. The April 8 races revolved around local issues,
many distinctive to a particular region.


5. (C) The real message of the prefectural and municipal
assembly elections is best summarized by a headline in the
April 10 English language Daily Yomiuri, which announced, "No
Party Can Claim Victory in Local Polls." The editorial
criticizes the LDP and DPJ for not laying down clear policy
markers to give voters a real choice. A headline in the
Asian edition of the International Herald Tribune notes the
same trend, proclaiming, "Voters Look for Change, but Find no
Solutions." Clearly, this election favored incumbents, who
won 1846 of the 2544 seats up for grabs, despite exit polls
in many districts showing voters wanted to a see a major
change in prefectural politics after the election. Polls
show that unaffiliated voters, representing as many as 50
percent of voters in some districts, decided to go with the
incumbents in most cases, rather than exercise their strength

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to change the status quo.


6. (C) Comment. While the DPJ exceeded even its own
expectations in the April 8 prefectural and municipal
assembly races, it is in no position to challenge the ruling
coalition's dominance of local politics any time soon. The
DPJ candidates did not benefit from any sort of unified
campaign message; they may have just worked a little harder.
The LDP still has many more "boots on the ground" to
coordinate the Upper House campaigns at the local level than
the opposition. This reality will probably not stop the
media from continuing to play up the local elections as an
LDP-DPJ battle to determine the course of the Upper House
elections in July. Some of our LDP contacts actually welcome
this sort of media coverage, seeing it as a chance to
motivate LDP candidates and supporters to work harder in the
upcoming national campaigns.
SCHIEFFER