MEDIA SPINS ELECTIONS AS WIN FOR DPJ DESPITE ONLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001560 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: MEDIA SPINS ELECTIONS AS WIN FOR DPJ DESPITE ONLY MODEST GAINS Classified By: DCM Joseph R. Donovan. Reasons: 1.4(B),(D). ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Media analysis April 10 focused on opposition DPJ gains in the April 8 prefectural and municipal assembly races. While it is true that the DPJ made inroads into some districts where they had never held seats before, and even gained majorities in a few assemblies, the overall numbers are still very much in favor of the ruling LDP. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Japanese media on April 10 trumpeted gains by the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in the April 8 unified local elections. This despite decent returns for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito that assure them of continued dominance of local political machinery in the run up to crucial July House of Councilors elections. Even though the LDP secured its lowest percentage of total prefectural assembly seats in history, it still holds over 42 percent nationwide, and well over a majority when Komeito seats are included in the count (reftel). The DPJ's success in adding 175 new seats leaves them with just under 15 percent of the total, rising to barely 20 percent if the Japan Socialist Party and Japan Communist Party are added. (Note: For a chart detailing the results in the prefectural and municipal assembly elections, please click here: 2007 Election Results in Japan.) ¶3. (C) Looking at the overall distribution of seats in the prefectural and municipal assemblies, the gains for the DPJ are actually rather small. For example, the DPJ gained just one seat each in Kochi and Kagoshima prefectures, where they previously had none, and held onto their only seat in Yamagata. In the 15 big city assembly races, the DPJ also made gains in some municipalities, including the heavily urbanized areas surrounding Tokyo, and captured a majority in Nagoya and Kawasaki. The fact that they gained any seats at all in some of the LDP's traditional rural strongholds is significant in and of itself, but won't change the local political dynamic, or provide enough additional "foot soldiers" to affect the outcome of the July Upper House campaigns. ¶4. (C) As one Embassy media contact noted: "If you look at the results closely, you'll see that the DPJ could not establish candidates in many districts, especially in the rural areas; the DPJ has its limits." At the same time, Embassy contacts in the LDP do not deny that they made mistakes in failing to pay adequate attention to a number of important local races, losing to young DPJ candidates with fresh ideas. The DPJ's gains were not necessarily the LDP's losses, however, as independents and other minor party candidates also dropped 138 seats from the 2003 elections. (Note: Due to municipal mergers, the total number of prefectural assembly seats dropped from 2634 in 2003, to 2544 in 2007. End note.) Media reports characterizing the April 8 election results as demonstrating that the DPJ is gradually gaining regional strength and becoming a viable opposition party within a two-party system may also be somewhat overstated. The April 8 races revolved around local issues, many distinctive to a particular region. ¶5. (C) The real message of the prefectural and municipal assembly elections is best summarized by a headline in the April 10 English language Daily Yomiuri, which announced, "No Party Can Claim Victory in Local Polls." The editorial criticizes the LDP and DPJ for not laying down clear policy markers to give voters a real choice. A headline in the Asian edition of the International Herald Tribune notes the same trend, proclaiming, "Voters Look for Change, but Find no Solutions." Clearly, this election favored incumbents, who won 1846 of the 2544 seats up for grabs, despite exit polls in many districts showing voters wanted to a see a major change in prefectural politics after the election. Polls show that unaffiliated voters, representing as many as 50 percent of voters in some districts, decided to go with the incumbents in most cases, rather than exercise their strength TOKYO 00001560 002 OF 002 to change the status quo. ¶6. (C) Comment. While the DPJ exceeded even its own expectations in the April 8 prefectural and municipal assembly races, it is in no position to challenge the ruling coalition's dominance of local politics any time soon. The DPJ candidates did not benefit from any sort of unified campaign message; they may have just worked a little harder. The LDP still has many more "boots on the ground" to coordinate the Upper House campaigns at the local level than the opposition. This reality will probably not stop the media from continuing to play up the local elections as an LDP-DPJ battle to determine the course of the Upper House elections in July. Some of our LDP contacts actually welcome this sort of media coverage, seeing it as a chance to motivate LDP candidates and supporters to work harder in the upcoming national campaigns. SCHIEFFER