AVM MORIYA BLAMES DEFMIN KYUMA FOR UNDERMINING DPRI IMPLEMENTATION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001153

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

OSD FOR LAWLESS/SHINN/HILL/BASALLA; COMUSJAPAN FOR J00/
J01,/J4/J5

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2017
TAGS: MARR, PGOV, PREL, JA
SUBJECT: AVM MORIYA BLAMES DEFMIN KYUMA FOR UNDERMINING
DPRI IMPLEMENTATION

REF: NAHA 47

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)

1. (S) Summary: Ministry of Defense (MOD) Administrative Vice
Minister Takemasa Moriya accused Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma
of derailing negotiations with the Okinawa Prefectural
Government (OPG) on implementation of the May 1, 2006 Defense
Policy Review Initiative (DPRI) agreement during an informal
March 8 dinner. Moriya accused Kyuma of reaching a secret
deal with Governor Hirokazu Nakaima to adjust the
construction plan for the Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF)
agreed upon by the Security Consultative Committee (SCC) last
year. Moriya claimed that Nakaima was motivated only by
business interests and can no longer be trusted as a partner
in the implementation process. He added that MOD is
considering coercive measures that had been contemplated last
year in the case of an opposition victory in the November,
2006 Governor election. End Summary.

2. (S) During a March 8 dinner hosted by Independent Okinawan
Diet Member Mikio Shimoji, MOD AVM Moriya lashed out a
Defense Minister Kyuma for sabotaging implementation of the
FRF portion of the May 1, 2006 Alliance Transformation
Roadmap. Moriya said that it is increasingly clear that
Kyuma had secretly promised Gov. Nakaima that he could
deliver a bilateral agreement to move the FRF's "V-shape"
runway off-shore and is unwilling to back out of this
commitment regardless of pressure from Washington or his own
government.

3. (S) Moriya said he was unsure of why Kyuma got himself
into this fix, but suggested that it may be related to
under-the-table financial dealings with local business
interests. Moriya was less speculative about Nakaima's
motives, asserting that the Governor is beholden only to his
business cronies and unconcerned about the interests of other
local political leaders or the residents of Okinawa. Moriya
said that neither Nakaima nor Vice Governor Nakazato could be
trusted, and characterized Nakaima as "just as bad as (former
Govs.) Inamine or Ota." While characterizing Kyuma as the
main trouble-maker within the central government on the FRF,
Moriya said that Finance Minister Koji Omi, Okinawan Affairs
Minister Sanae Takaichi, and National Security Assistant
Yuriko Koike have also tried to insert themselves in
unhelpful ways for various personal or financial reasons.

4. (S) Moriya asserted that Kyuma has seriously put himself
in a corner over the FRF. Kyuma knows that Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe is furious with his freelancing, but is clearly
even more concerned about the prospect of failing his
partners in Okinawa. Given the circumstances, Moriya claimed
that Kyuma has only two ways out: convince the USG to change
the FRF plan or get himself fired by the Prime Minister.
Moriya suggested that Kyuma could cite expulsion from the
cabinet to explain to his Okinawan associates why he was
unable to deliver his end of the deal on the FRF. Moriya
asserted that Kyuma's decision not to pursue a 2 2 meeting in
March was based on concern that it would reveal that his
effort to change the USG position on the FRF had failed.

5. (S) Moriya singled out Higashi Namakon Corp. CEO Hirotsugu
Nakadomari as the key figure in the initiative to move the
FRF off-shore. According to Moriya, Nakadomari worked for
former Okinawan Gov. Nishime and had planned a political
career of his own. A political scandal severely tarnished
Nakadomari's name, making a run for office impossible.
Instead of seeking election himself, Nakadomari turned to the
construction business and backroom politics. Moriya said
Nakadomari has managed to leverage his money and political
acumen to position himself as the "kingmaker" in northern

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Okinawa politics.

No More Carrots?
--------------

6. (S) Moriya suggested that recent actions by Kyuma and,
especially, Nakaima have totally ruined prospects for a
cooperative way forward with the OPG on the FRF. Moriya
noted that MOD will require cooperation from the Governor at
five different points in the implementation process, each
offering an opportunity for further protracted haggling.
Rather than pursuing further discussions with the OPG, Moriya
said it was time to prepare for unilateral action.

7. (S) In this context, Moriya touted MOD's environmental
"pre-survey" work that will be conducted on the reef area off
Camp Schwab prior to the formal environmental impact study.
Moriya emphasized the importance of moving ahead on this
before the May coral spawning season so that work on the FRF
project will not slip into next year. Information collected
by MOD could later be inputted into the formal environmental
certification process, he added. While in theory this could
be approved by the OPG, Moriya said that MOD is preparing to
move ahead with Special Measures legislation that would
suspend OPG's authority to issue permits for DPRI-related
survey work. He expressed confidence that the ruling
coalition, and perhaps even the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ),would support such legislation as long as it was
introduced after the July 22 Upper House election.

Realignment Legislation on Track
--------------

8. (C) On a more positive note, Moriya offered an upbeat
assessment of prospects for Diet passage of base realignment
legislation, which includes provisions to allow the Japan
Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) to finance DPRI
projects on Guam. Moriya said that the DPJ appears set to
support the bill, but assessed that final Diet action may not
come until late May/early June.

Comment: Bad, but Not Fatal
--------------

9. (S) It is remarkable how freely Moriya shared his contempt
for Kyuma and his role on the FRF with USG interlocutors.
Moriya's casual remark that "Kyuma never tells me anything"
suggests that rumors of a breakdown in communications between
the Defense Minister and his deputy are on the mark.
Unfortunately, there are also indications that Gov. Nakaima
and his top aides have also stopped talking to Moriya and his
MOD team, leaving early agreement on FRF construction in
doubt.

10. (S) Moriya's advocacy of taking a harder line with
Okinawa is consistent with recent comments by working level
MOD officials. It is far from certain, however, that MOD
would receive backing from the Prime Minister's Office or
ruling coalition for using coercive action, especially
Special Measures legislation, against the conservative
Nakaima. If quiet MOD-OPG negotiations do fail, the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) and Kantei would likely seek to use
more subtle means, such as withholding payments to
DPRI-affected Okinawan municipalities, to apply pressure on
Nakaima to cooperate.
SCHIEFFER