JAPANESE FOREIGN MINISTER'S "MIDDLE EAST POLICY AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 001058 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2017 TAGS: PREL ENRG ETRD EAID XF AF TU JA SUBJECT: JAPANESE FOREIGN MINISTER'S "MIDDLE EAST POLICY AS I SEE IT" SPEECH REF: A. TOKYO 1005 ¶B. TOKYO 658 ¶C. TOKYO 238 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4(b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Middle East is currently standing at a critical crossroads between stability and turmoil, and it is imperative that Japan do all it can to secure and reinforce maximum stability in the region, declared Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso February 28 in a policy address titled "Middle East Policy As I See It." Aso's speech followed by three months his "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity" address, which intentionally did not touch upon the Middle East due to Japan's sensitivity that terms such as "democracy" and "freedom" do not have the resonance in the Arab world as they do elsewhere. In his remarks, Aso said he hopes that "one day" the people of the Middle East will hold these ideals in common with Japan. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY (continued): The Middle East, Aso continued, is important to Japan for three main reasons: -- oil, -- economic opportunity, -- and the threat it presents to global stability. - He advocated creating "poles of stability" which include Turkey, the Gulf countries, and a more prosperous West Bank following the hoped for success of Japan's "Corridor of Peace and Prosperity" initiative (ref A.) -- Aso also called for Japan to leverage the good will it enjoys among all countries of the region to serve as a mediator or meeting place in which confidence building measures can be explored. -- On Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan Aso remarked that "in none of these cases can we say that optimism is warranted", but concluded that stopping the bloodshed in Iraq and Afghanistan is key to building stability throughout the region. TOKYO 00001058 002 OF 009 MOFA sources tell us the drafting of this speech was a trying process, and that its main purpose was to simply assure the people of the Middle East that Japan is cognizant of the difficulties they are encountering and wants to do more to help. The Arab diplomatic corps in Tokyo viewed the speech as an important step in Japan's Middle East policy but concluded that it fell short of their expectations. The full text of the speech can be found at www.mofa.go.jp/region/middle e/address0702.html. END SUMMARY. -------------- "ARC OF FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY" PART II... -------------- ¶3. (U) FM Aso's "Middle East Policy As I See It" speech can be viewed as a sequel to his "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity" address delivered November 30, 2006, in which he set forth his view that Japan's foreign policy should be based on promoting universal values such as freedom, human rights, democracy, and the rule of law. Japan's goal, he said, was to act as an "escort runner" to assist developing democracies stretching in an arc from Southeast Asia, through Central Asia and the Caucasus, and into Eastern Europe. In the speech, Aso specifically mentioned that the Middle East also lies within that geographic arc, but said the region would require a separate speech. -------------- ...SORT OF -------------- ¶4. (U) One reason Aso believed a separate speech was required is found at the beginning of his Middle East address: an acknowledgment that there may be some wariness in the region to words such as "freedom and prosperity." Aso states: "I want the people of the Middle East -- and by that I mean the Middle Eastern region in the largest sense, from Afghanistan to northern Africa -- to know what exactly it is that Japan treats as invaluable. Then, one day, I would like the people of the Middle East to hold those same ideals in common." He empathizes with the frustrations many of the people of the region are experiencing due to its failure to live up to many of its historical attributes, and makes clear that while the TOKYO 00001058 003 OF 009 Japanese abhor terrorism, they do not by any means hate Muslims. Aso says he is determined to deepen Japan's engagement with the Middle East with regard to both the economic and political dimensions and that every effort must be taken to increase the frequency of high-level visits. (NOTE: Press reports not yet officially confirmed to us by MOFA indicated that Prime Minister Abe plans to visit Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates in May, following his trip to the United States. END NOTE.) -------------- -------------- THREE KEY INTERESTS: OIL - ECONOMICS - INSTABILITY -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) There are three reasons why the Middle East is important to Japan, Aso explains. The first is oil. Japan, he notes, imported 89.2 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, 76.4 percent from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The second is "unexpectedly bright" economic prospects. By this, Aso is referring to opportunities for Japanese businesses to become involved in mega-projects, such as the Sumitomo Chemical joint venture with Saudi Aramco with operating expenses in excess of 1.1 trillion yen. The third, and most important reason the region is of critical importance to Japan is because the "region as a whole stands at a crossroads of great consequence. That is, the question before us is whether the region will head towards stability or instead spiral downward to turbulence and turmoil." ¶6. (U) Aso asserts that, accordingly, it is essential for Japan to strengthen its political engagement with the Middle East. "It is imperative that we secure and then reinforce maximum stability in the region, leading to a calmer and more stable order." To do so, Aso calls for an "all Japan effort" making full use of Japan's economic, intellectual, and diplomatic resources. "To assist in bringing stability to the region of the Middle East, a task with true significance in the history of the world, is the job that stands before us now." -------------- POLES OF STABILITY -------------- TOKYO 00001058 004 OF 009 ¶7. (U) CORRIDOR OF PEACE AND PROSPERITY: Aso calls for the creation of several "poles of stability", the first of which is based on Japan's Corridor of Peace and Prosperity (CPP) initiative, described in more detail in ref A. In brief, the initiative involves the establishment of an agro-industrial park in the West Bank which would provide jobs for Palestinians and produce high-value added agricultural products which would then be shipped through Jordan to markets in the Gulf region. Aso believes that new momentum for peace has emerged in that a Palestinian national unity government is beginning to take shape, and calls for exchanging high-level visits "repeatedly" between Japan with both Israelis and Palestinians. (NOTE: On March 14-15, Tokyo will be hosting track two confidence building meetings between Shimon Peres and Saeb Erekat, see reftel. END NOTE.) Recalling the "escort runner" analogy of his "Arc of Freedom" speech, Aso says Japan will, with the CPP, act as a "flagperson" to urge all other parties to make their best efforts. The hoped for result will be the creation of jobs and economic opportunities for Palestinians, the instilling in them of a Japanese "can-do approach to challenges", and the building of trust between the parties. ¶8. (U) FTA WITH GCC: A second "pole of stability" would be the strengthening of Japan's relations with the countries of the GCC. Aso notes the ongoing negotiations to conclude a Free Trade Agreement, which he predicts will result in greater interaction between Japanese companies and the GCC. He hopes that "as the traffic between our countries intensifies, managerial and business know-how will begin to be transferred from Japan to the GCC states." ¶9. (U) TURKEY: Aso touched briefly on Turkey, which he called the third pole of stability, noting Turkey's ability to get along with both the Israelis and many of the Arab countries, and because of its size and the widespread use of Turkish in northern parts of the region. Japan must continue to voice moral support for Turkish accession into the European Union, he asserted. -------------- IRAQ, IRAN, AFGHANISTAN: NO OPTIMISM -------------- TOKYO 00001058 005 OF 009 ¶10. (U) In contrast to the poles of stability, Aso takes a seemingly negative view with regard to Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan, stating that "in none of these cases can we say that optimism is warranted." On Iraq and Afghanistan "Japan has over the past few years gritted its teeth and continued to invest...in various ways." Citing the death of Japanese diplomats in Iraq, Aso asks "if we were to retreat out of fear, what purposes would our many efforts there have served?" Aso does not mention the many accomplishments over the past years to promote the growth in these two countries of the very values that Japan hopes to nurture in the Arc of Freedom and Prosperity. But he does conclude that "unless we are able to stop the bloodshed in Iraq and Afghanistan, it will be no surprise if the violence occurring among religious factions and by terrorist extremists spreads beyond the Middle East as a whole to various regions of the world." ¶11. (U) Iran is only touched upon briefly, with Aso commenting on the close relationship he has with his Iranian counterpart and remarking that "I plan to have our staff at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs become extremely well-versed in the art of persuasion as they become engaged with Iran." -------------- JAPAN'S UNIQUE ROLE -------------- ¶12. (U) Aso concludes that Japan can play a unique role in the Middle East because there are no feelings of ill-will toward the Japanese among the countries of the region. Japan is therefore positioned to facilitate contacts and communications between the parties to conflicts that others cannot. He wants to push for improved Japanese "public relations" in the region and to continue to host exchanges and forums such as the "Japan-Arab Dialogue Forum" and the "Dialogue among civilizations between Japan and the Islamic World." Finally, Aso stresses Japan's desire to continue to focus on the development of education and the fostering of human resources in the Middle East: "This emphasis on job training is a hallmark of Japanese efforts in the Middle East." And, in a remark that seems to contradict his stated concern about offending conservative sensibilities about western values, he states that "another hallmark of our efforts is that we work for the empowerment of women." TOKYO 00001058 006 OF 009 -------------- DRAFTING DIFFICULTIES -------------- ¶13. (C) Those tasked with drafting Aso's speech had a difficult time, MOFA First Middle East Division Deputy Director Jiro Kanzawa told an Embassy Tokyo Political Officer. Following the Arc of Freedom and Prosperity speech, Kanzawa and his colleagues received their "homework" to come up with Aso's promised remarks on the Middle East. After much brainstorming, it was concluded that if a new Japanese Middle East initiative was to be launched it would involve much work and a long, interagency process. There were times, he said, that the whole project was nearly shelved. However, because it had been "promised" by the Foreign Minister, it was ultimately decided to craft a speech which would simply explain in general terms Japan's present philosophy and principals with regard to the Middle East. ¶14. (C) Kanzawa, who had the lead in the drafting process, said a major challenge was MOFA's perception that the values mentioned in the Arc of Freedom speech, such as democracy and human rights, do not have the resonance in the Middle East as they do elsewhere. The purpose of the speech was not to tell others how to behave or govern themselves, he said. Rather, these are decisions that must be left up to the people of the region. Accordingly, there was a conscious effort to avoid terms such as "democracy," "human rights," or "freedom" in the speech. Instead, the focus was intended to be on the positive role Japan can play as an honest broker, and sought to highlight Japan's role in developing educational opportunities and job training programs. ¶15. (C) Although the speech was delivered to a Japanese audience, the target was the people of the Middle East, explained Kanzawa. Aso wanted to make clear that Japan is cognizant of the challenges faced by the people of the region and is committed to doing what it can to help in both the economic and political fields. No new initiatives were announced, and the message delivered was meant to be nonthreatening and neutral in nature. When asked whether the speech had received much coverage in the Middle East among its targeted audience, Kanzawa replied that he did not know, TOKYO 00001058 007 OF 009 but that initial reaction from members of the Arab diplomatic corps in Tokyo had been positive. -------------- REACTION -------------- ¶16. (C) Reaction to Aso's speech among the Arab diplomatic corps has been muted. According to Lebanese Charge d'Affaires Toufic Jaber, the Arab ambassadors gathered March 6 to discuss the speech. The general consensus was that it was an important step forward but really didn't meet their expectations concerning the importance of the Middle East to Japan. They believe Japan's main motivations in the region are to garner support for its bid to win a permanent seat on the Security Council, to emulate U.S. and E.U. policies concerning "values based" diplomacy and open markets, to assure the free flow of oil, and to play a role as a consensus builder in the peace process. The ambassadors were disappointed Aso did not express any clear positions on important issues for the Arab world, such as the status of Jerusalem or the implementation of UNSCRs pertaining to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Finally, reported Jaber, there is a realization among the Arab ambassadors that despite the Foreign Minister's speech, the Middle East remains relatively unimportant in Japan's foreign policy compared to dealing with issues pertaining to the U.S., E.U., China, Korea, India, or even Brazil. Jordanian Embassy Counselor Demiye Haddad told us he believes Japan's view of the Middle East is "romantic and overly simplified," while Egyptian Second Secretary Walid Haggag reported that his Embassy didn't find SIPDIS anything particularly earth shaking to say about the speech. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶17. (C) Foreign Minister Aso's speech marked the first time, according to Kanzawa, that a Japanese Foreign Minister had devoted an entire speech solely to the Middle East. Beyond that, however, we believe it presents nothing new or of major significance. It was intentionally meant to be non-threatening and no new initiatives were announced. Intended to reassure the people of the Middle East that Japan TOKYO 00001058 008 OF 009 is aware of their difficulties, and to highlight what Japan has done and will continue to offer support and assistance, it is unlikely it will result in any lasting impressions. We find it disappointing Aso did not push more forcefully the values he asserts are the cornerstones of Japanese foreign policy. In addition, the spin he put on Iraq and Afghanistan was a missed opportunity to focus attention on the progress toward democratization and rule of law that has been made in those countries, despite the difficult conditions and the active opposition of those who do not share Japan's values. Instead of lacking optimism and "gritting our teeth" it would have been nice to hear him talking about how Japan is standing shoulder to shoulder with Iraqis and Afghans to advance the cause of democracy in these critical battlefields in the struggle against extremism. ¶18. (C) Despite Aso's soaring rhetoric of an "all Japan effort" and of embarking on "a task with true significance in the history of the world," we anticipate that Japan will continue along the same road it has followed in the Middle East. With regard to the peace process, it will play a modest role on the fringes to help promote reconciliation. Japanese humanitarian support for the Palestinians will continue, but as was shown in the case of Lebanon, we do not expect Japan to play a leadership role in addressing other critical issues in the region. Other recent disappointments include Japan's decisions not to continue to contribute at previous levels to the Sinai Multilateral Forces and Observers (ref C) or at all to the Distinct Entity Trust Fund for UN middle ring security in Iraq (ref B.) Tokyo's support for Iraq and Afghanistan, despite Aso's lukewarm words, remains solid but should continue to be nurtured at every possible opportunity. On Iran, we do believe that Japan is using its good relations to urge Iranian compliance with UNSCR 1737. ¶19. (C) As noted above, press reports, not officially confirmed to us by MOFA, report that Prime Minister Abe is planning to visit Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in May, following his visit to the United States. It's possible there will be some concrete follow-up to Aso's speech at that time. The key issue will be, of course, whether the Prime Minister chooses to steer away from the hot-button issues Aso avoided or if he addresses Japan's TOKYO 00001058 009 OF 009 values-based diplomacy more overtly. But for now, we believe Aso's remarks were a speech given just for the sake of giving a speech. It is doubtful its message even reached its target audience. Embassy Tokyo would be interested in hearing from posts in the region whether the address made any impact on host governments. SCHIEFFER