JAPAN TO HOST ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN OFFICIALS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 001005 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2017 TAGS: PREL EAGR EAID ETRD EAIR KPAL KWBG IS JO JA SUBJECT: JAPAN TO HOST ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN OFFICIALS FOR CONFIDENCE BUILDING TALKS; JORDANIANS WILL JOIN TO INAUGURATE THE "CORRIDOR OF PEACE AND PROSPERITY" INITIATIVE Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4 (b) and ( d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Minister Taro Aso will preside March 14 in Tokyo over a meeting to inaugurate Japan's "Corridor of Peace and Prosperity" initiative involving Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinians. Expected participants include Shimon Peres for Israel, Saed Erekat for the Palestinians, and Bassem Awadallah for the Jordanians. The meeting is expected to last no more than thirty minutes, will be ceremonial in nature, and will be followed by a reception. The Israelis are reluctant to call these "four party talks" because they do not want to set what could be construed as a precedent for sitting down with the Palestinians at this time. Earlier in the day on March 14 and continuing on March 15, the Middle East Research Institute of Japan - a MOFA think tank - will host an additional set of "Track Two" "confidence building" meetings between the Israelis and Palestinians, one for officials and the other for businessmen. This will be the third in a series of such talks, the last of which took place in July 2004. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY (continued): The Corridor of Peace and Prosperity concept was announced by former Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi during a visit to the region in July 2006. Japan's concept is to work collaboratively to initiate projects that promote regional cooperation for the prosperity of the region, such as establishing an agro-industrial park in the West Bank and facilitating the transportation of high-value added agricultural products to the countries of the Gulf region. The goal is to create jobs and economic prosperity in the West Bank. This initiative faces a number of problems, both political and practical. But Japan wishes to show that it is doing more in the Middle East and that it wants to play a more visible role in the Peace Process. FM Aso recently delivered a speech on how Japan's foreign policy in the Middle East (septel),and the Corridor of Peace and Prosperity initiative figured heavily in his remarks. MOFA's background paper describing the initiative can be found at www.mofa.go.jp/region/middle e/palestine/concept0607.html. END SUMMARY. -------------- BACKGROUND OF THE INITIATIVE -------------- ¶3. (U) MOFA will announce this week that FM Aso will host on March 14 the initial meeting of the "Corridor of Peace and Prosperity" (CPP) partners, which are Japan, Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinians, MOFA First Middle East Division Director Hideo Sato confirmed to AID Counselor. The visiting delegations are expected to be led by Israeli Minister for the Development of the Negev and Galilee Shimon Peres, Palestinian negotiator Saed Erekat, and Bassem Awadallah, Political Director of Jordanian King Abdallah's office. (NOTE: Demiye Haddad, Counselor at Jordan's Embassy in Tokyo TOKYO 00001005 002 OF 004 told Political Officer he is not yet certain whether Awadallah will attend. END NOTE.) MOFA First Middle East Division Deputy Director David Tsunakake told Embassy Tokyo Political Officer that the meeting would last no more than thirty minutes and would serve as a ceremonial inauguration for the initiative. The next step will be to form technical groups to address issues such as location, budget, human resources, security, and others. He also said that the somewhat related proceedings on March 14 and 15 hosted by the Middle East Research Institute of Japan involving only the Israelis and Palestinians would be on a "track two" basis, meaning that the delegates would be appearing in their personal capacities rather than officially representing their governments. These meetings will be presided over by Ambassador Tatsuo Arima, Japan's Representative in Charge of Peace in the Middle East, according to Sato. ¶4. (U) Japan's basic goal with the CPP initiative is to act as a facilitator to promote confidence and regional economic cooperation between Israelis and Arabs. The CPP idea involves establishing an agro-industrial park in the West Bank that would provide jobs for Palestinians and produce high-value added agricultural products. These products would then be shipped through a distribution center to be built in Jordan to markets in the Gulf states. Japan is prepared to finance a feasibility study and to extend technical assistance for capacity building, as well as to finance the transportation component of the initiative. It is hoped that the private sector will participate. Haddad said that to his knowledge, the Japanese have yet to indicate how much financial assistance they are contemplating, but he reasons that they foresee a sizable investment. (NOTE: In Aso's speech on the Middle East, he stated that under the initiative, an area consisting of approximately 1,000 square kilometers would be utilized as a central point for high-value added agriculture. END NOTE.) ¶5. (C) Tokyo has been exploring and refining this initiative for the past two years, MOFA First Middle East Division Director Hideo Sato recently told Embassy AID Counselor, and it was first publicly announced by former Prime Minister Koizumi during a visit to the region in July 2006. Koizumi is said to still be a driving force behind the initiative. Japan first initiated a consultative unit, the "Four Stakeholders" (Japan, Jordan, Israel, the Palestinians) which came up with the plan to construct an agro-industrial park in the West Bank. According to Sato, the Israelis, Palestinians, and Jordanians all expressed support for the concept and targets at the time of Koizumi's announcement, and MOFA continued to work on the initiative. ¶6. (U) In November 2006, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) dispatched a project formulation team focusing on the agro-industrial park and location, electrical power resources, transportation routes, and private sector interest and potential involvement. MOFA Second Country Assistance TOKYO 00001005 003 OF 004 Planning Division Director Naofumi Hashimoto told AID Counselor that location has been a major concern from the beginning of the talks, but now there is agreement that the Jericho region will be the site of the project. It is contemplated that at the end of March 2007, another JICA team will be dispatched to the region to (1) conduct the feasibility study for the agro-industrial park, (2) conduct a feasibility study for water supply development, and (3) prepare the agricultural technical requirements. Hashimoto said that perhaps within three to six months the necessary project technical assistance/expertise and grant aid assistance package would be clarified. -------------- OBSTACLES -------------- ¶7. (C) One obstacle to the success of the CPP initiative is the concern on the part of the Israelis that they not deal with representatives of Hamas, according to Israel Strolov, Second Secretary at the Israeli Embassy in Tokyo. The Israelis support the CPP concept and are willing to move forward with it as long as they are certain they are dealing with people under the authority of Palestinian President Abbas, but until the Israelis are satisfied that Hamas representatives are not involved, it is unlikely there will be much forward progress other than the completion of feasibility studies. Even if the hurdle of defining an acceptable partner can be overcome, there are a number of other details that are open to disagreement. ¶8. (C) Damiye Haddad, Counselor at the Jordanian Embassy in Tokyo, told Political Officer that there are at least three outstanding technical issues that need to be worked out before any significant forward progress can be made. The first is location. Although MOFA, as indicated above, believes the area for the agro-industrial park has been narrowed down to Jericho, Haddad says there is ongoing discussion about whether it would be located in an "area c" area where security is controlled by the Israelis, or an "area a" area, where the Palestinians exercise more control. Strolov, also confirmed that this is an issue. ¶9. (C) The second issue addresses how the produce grown in the West Bank will get to Jordan for onward shipment. Currently, overland shipments from the West Bank to Jordan cross the Allenby Bridge. Jordan, Haddad explained, would like to see the run-down, one-way Damiya Bridge, about one kilometer south of the Allenby Bridge, rebuilt into a modern, two-way bridge to serve as the primary border crossing point for all CPP produce. The Israelis, says Haddad, are opposed, arguing that to create a new port of entry would impose security requirements it cannot currently meet. They prefer to see all CPP produce transit across the Allenby Bridge, which would be upgraded. Haddad believes the Japanese agree with the Jordanian view, and is unclear on whether the TOKYO 00001005 004 OF 004 Israelis, among themselves, have yet to really agree upon a unified position. According to Haddad, during King Abdallah's last visit to Tokyo in December 2006, the King told Prime Minister Abe that he'd raise this question with Prime Minister Olmert, but Haddad is unaware if this ever happened. ¶10. (C) The third issue is how to get the produce from Jordan to the end markets in the Gulf region. The Jordanians, explained Haddad, would like to build a new airstrip near the border crossing point, which would allow for expeditious onward shipping for the perishable products to be exported. The Japanese are suggesting to upgrade the Queen Alia International Airport, approximately 40 kilometers away. Jordan's reply to this is that traffic into and out of Queen Alia is subject to delays, and that it would cost the same to build a new airstrip as it would to upgrade the existing airport. Plus, the new airport would act as a magnet for additional growth and investment in its immediate vicinity. Haddad concluded that the bottom line is that the Japanese are interested in building an agro-industrial park for the Palestinians, and that fixing bridges and airports are secondary concerns that will do more to help the Jordanians and Israelis. So until the details of the agro-industrial park are settled upon, the Japanese are not very interested in focusing on the other issues. He said the Japanese have made it clear to him that any agreement on the airport issue will be bilateral only and will not involve the other parties. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Japan clearly wants to be seen as playing a larger role in the Middle East and in the Peace Process. Their CPP initiative, while seemingly straightforward, we believe will be difficult and complicated to realize. The Japanese, no doubt, will proceed cautiously on a step by step basis, but there seem to be many questions yet unanswered (or maybe even unasked) about how this is supposed to play out. As will be reported septel regarding FM Aso's recent "The Middle East As I See It" speech, it is generally agreed upon here by members of the Arab diplomatic corps that Japan has a rather romantic and overly simplified view of what it takes to make progress in solving the problems that seem to plague the region. In addition, it is difficult to predict what, if any, results will emerge from the Israeli-Palestinian confidence building talks. Embassy will endeavor to obtain a readout once they are completed. SCHIEFFER