NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: PDASD LONG'S JANUARY 25

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000185 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA, EUR/UBI, EUR/RPM E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2017 TAGS: NATO PINS PREL MARR MOPS AF NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: PDASD LONG'S JANUARY 25 VISIT TO THE HAGUE Classified By: Ambassador Roland Arnall, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: During her January 25 visit to The Hague, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Mary Beth Long commended Dutch efforts in their deployment to Uruzgan province in Afghanistan. She stressed the importance of a "comprehensive approach" incorporating kinetic and reconstruction efforts in fighting the Taliban insurgency, but also suggested a short-term emphasis on kinetic operations to repel the anticipated Taliban offensive this coming spring. Dutch interlocutors were receptive to this comprehensive approach, noting similarities with their own "3D strategy" combining defense, development and diplomacy options, and emphasizing a balanced approach that is "civilian as possible, but military as necessary." Noting a perception among European publics that we care more about kinetic options, Dutch officials also suggested the USG could do more to improve its public relations efforts regarding reconstruction efforts. End summary. ¶2. (U) On January 25, PDAS Long with MFA Deputy Director for Political Affairs Wim Geerts, and other MFA officials including Deputy Head of Security Policy Henk Swarttrouw, Senior Policy Advisor Karen van Stegeren, and Task Force Uruzgan Deputy Coordinator Dewi van der Weerde. Long also met with the Dutch CHOD Gen. Berlijn, and participated in a lunch discussion with several Dutch parliamentarians. On January 26, Long participated in a conference focusing on the Dutch 3D strategy hosted by the Dutch MFA and the Centre for European Reform. MFA Meeting: Civilian as Possible, Military as Necessary -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Geerts said on-going Dutch government coalition formation talks would not affect the GONL's two-year deployment to Uruzgan province in Afghanistan, and expressed confidence the new government will consider possibly extending -- the key question will be in what capacity. He mentioned SACEUR's Combined Joint Statement of Requirements (CJSOR) review, and anticipated difficulty in persuading Allies to contribute more toward a revised CJSOR when initial requirements were not met. Nevertheless, he expressed hope Allies like Norway might answer SACEUR's call, and characterized a recent trip to Uruzgan by the Norwegian foreign minister as a success. PDAS Long acknowledged NATO was still struggling to fill gaps resulting from the ISAF III to IV transition. She suggested reviewing CJSOR shortfalls in light of short-term tactical needs for the anticipated Taliban offensive this spring. ¶4. (C) Geerts stressed the importance of the Dutch "3D Strategy," combining diplomacy, development, and defense. He emphasized balancing kinetic and reconstruction efforts, and suggested a perception exists that the USG prefers kinetic over development option -- this might prove problematic once the USG takes over ISAF command. He said the Taliban cannot be defeated by the military alone; the Afghan people must believe their lives have changed for the better, which can only be accomplished through combined military and reconstruction efforts. Geerts noted sensitivity to the term "soft approach" -- instead, the Dutch believe in a balanced approach that is "civilian as possible, but military as necessary." He suggested the USG could do better in terms of public relations for its reconstruction efforts. ¶5. (C) PDAS Long noted complete USG agreement with the need for a balanced strategy including both development and kinetic efforts; the U.S. "comprehensive approach" will incorporate both to counter the Taliban spring offensive. She praised Dutch leadership in that regard, noting the successful balance of development and kinetic efforts in Uruzgan. Long characterized the Afghan people as a center of gravity in the fight against the Taliban insurgency, and emphasized the importance of the 2009 Afghan elections -- will Afghans be able to say their lives had changed for the better? Development assistance will be an integral part in this effort, Long said. ¶6. (C) In that vein, PDAS Long anticipated damaging psychological effects if the Taliban spring offensive is viewed as successful. She said the Afghan population in the southern provinces is already "hedging its bets" in order to determine whether NATO/GOA forces or the Taliban will win. In that respect, she said, an emphasis on kinetic operations this spring is certainly warranted. Long also argued that European populations would be greatly affected by a successful Taliban spring, especially if casualty rates for Allied soldiers is high and the press continues to highlight "body counts" over reconstruction projects. ¶7. (C) Geerts raised the importance of empowering Afghan governance, and said Afghan President Karzai must do more to combat corruption and instill local level confidence in the national government. Regionally, Geerts said Pakistan must do more to fight Taliban leadership in Quetta and limit the flow of Taliban across the border into Afghanistan. Long said Secretaries Rice and Gates will stress Afghanistan-Pakistan relations at their respective ministerials, and stressed Allies speaking with one, coordinated voice to Pakistan on the fight against the Taliban. At the same time, she said, the USG is looking at ways to help Pakistan economically by improving relations with tribes along the border, including especially in Waziristan. ¶8. (C) On development assistance, Geerts said the Dutch contributed 70 million euros in Afghanistan in 2006 -- "money is not a problem," he said, but "absorption capacity" remains an obstacle. He said more must be done to improve training for Afghan National Army (ANA) and Police (ANP). Geerts also said the Dutch will continue to push for more UN, EU, and international NGO involvement in the southern provinces. Long concurred, and suggested bolstering NATO Senior Civilian Representative Dan Everts' mandate and resources. ¶9. (C) PDAS Long said the USG will shortly announce a new, comprehensive assistance package that will significantly increase allocations toward development and reconstruction efforts, counter-narcotics efforts, police and security force training, as well as kinetic operations. She noted that the supplemental package must obtain congressional approval. She added that the USG needs help on training efforts, noting delays in getting NATO's Operational Mentoring Liaison Teams (OMLTs) certified and embedded. Meeting with CHOD: Spot On -------------- ¶10. (C) Dutch CHOD Gen. Berlijn started the meeting by thanking the U.S. for its commitment in Afghanistan. Berlijn said he had spoken earlier in the day with CJCS General Pace, who informed him the U.S. would have a 2-brigade overlap in Afghanistan for an additional four months. Berlijn considered the call very welcome news. PDAS Long emphasized the importance of the comprehensive approach to Afghanistan, stating that Allies should agree on a long-term strategy for security and reconstruction, with an eye to the 2009 Afghan elections. She said the elections would be the first benchmark for measuring the success of our efforts in Afghanistan; Berlijn concurred. ¶11. (C) Long expressed her desire that our focus on the Taliban spring offensive would not cause concern in Allies' capitals that the U.S. was overly focused on the kinetic aspects of the NATO operation in Afghanistan. She said both the U.S. and Europeans needed to work on making sure that European publics -- a strategic center of gravity -- understood that reconstruction was at least as important as the security mission. Berlijn described the approach was "spot on." ¶12. (C) Long mentioned Secretary Rice would unveil the U.S. desire for a "comprehensive strategy" in Afghanistan at the NATO Foreign Ministerials. Berlijn noted the importance of public diplomacy and giving the world "a more balanced" story regarding U.S. reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. He then said the GONL knows the U.S is spending billions of dollars and leading the reconstruction effort, but discussion in the press greatly overemphasizes U.S. kinetic operations. Parliamentary Lunch -------------- ¶13. (SBU) In a lively lunch discussion hosted by Amb. Arnall, PDAS Long fielded questions from several Dutch parliamentarians, many of which had just returned from a parliamentary defense committee trip to Afghanistan. Christian Democratic Alliance (CDA) foreign affairs spokesperson Henk Jan Ormel questioned whether Allied efforts could help implement democratic practices by the 2009 Afghan national elections, especially given systemic corruption. CDA member Kathleen Ferrier asked what could be done to improve ANA/ANP training. Jan Arend Boekenstijn of the Liberal Party (VVD) commended U.S. reconstruction efforts -- he noted we far exceed Dutch contributions -- and challenged the Dutch to do more. Labor Party PvdA foreign affairs spokesperson Bert Koenders wondered if the public perception that the USG cares more for kinetic options might prove damaging once the U.S. assumes ISAF command. He added that the GONL is well aware of U.S. reconstruction efforts, but that "tone and approach" regarding military operations was also important. ¶14. (SBU) PDAS Long thanked and commended the Dutch for their balanced efforts in Uruzgan, noting that they continue to "punch above their weight." She said Secretary Rice would announce a large increase in funding for our efforts in Afghanistan at the NATO foreign ministerial, which will be used toward security and reconstruction, police training and equipping, and counter-narcotics efforts -- but contingent upon congressional approval. She also stressed the importance of the 2009 Afghan national elections, and the role of reconstruction efforts in a comprehensive approach aimed at improving the lives of the Afghan people. ¶15. (SBU) PDAS Long reviewed problems with police and security force training -- unfortunately, these forces spend so much time fighting, they hardly train, rest, or have the opportunity to return to their home villages as representatives of the national government. In that regard, she asked for more help from the Dutch regarding embedded trainers. She stressed the importance of getting the UN more involved in the south, and bolstering the mandate of the NATO Senior Civilian Representative. Long reiterated the need for a single, coordinated voice to get Pakistan to do more on fighting Taliban in Pakistan. She agreed with the need for a balanced, comprehensive approach -- but argued that kinetic options will likely be stressed in the short-term as Allied gear up for their own offensive against the Taliban in the spring. ¶16. (U) PDASD Long has cleared on this cable. ARNALL