CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION (CWC): SCENESETTER FOR

UNCLAS THE HAGUE 001103 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR ISN/CB, VCI/CCB, L/ACV, IO/S SECDEF FOR OSD/ISP JOINT STAFF FOR DD PMA-A FOR WTC COMMERCE FOR BIS (GOLDMAN) NSC FOR LEDDY WINPAC FOR WALTER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PARM PREL CWC SUBJECT: CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION (CWC): SCENESETTER FOR 49TH OPCW EXECUTIVE COUNCIL SESSION This is CWC-53-07. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) Two issues will likely dominate the June 26-29 EC session: Albanian and Russian CW destruction. If Albania does not complete destruction by the start of the EC, there is every reason to expect that Iran will again be on a mission to generate a precedent that can be used against the U.S. in 2012. Russia will undoubtedly push the envelope to get the clearest possible statement, particularly in the EC report language, that it has completed "destruction" of 20% of its stockpile. With regard to other issues, the Director General will have only just released his proposed 2008 budget, so that will draw little more than initial commentary. End Summary. -------------- ALBANIA -------------- ¶2. (U) Exactly how the issue of Albania's CW destruction will play out will be largely determined by what percentage of their stockpile has been destroyed as of the start of the EC. However, there is no doubt that if destruction has not been completed, it will be one of the biggest issues of EC-49, primarily because any measures applied to Albania will be scrutinized closely (especially by Iran) as a possible precedent for the U.S. in 2012. The conclusion of EC-48 set a fairly positive precedent, with report language that simply called upon Albania to keep the EC informed and complete destruction as soon as possible. ¶3. (U) There seems to be general agreement in WEOG, particularly among the Close Allies, that similar action on the part of the EC is the most appropriate path for EC-49. Russia has informally indicated that report language should be adequate, but it is doubtful that will be satisfactory to Iran unless finally offered on Iranian terms as an eleventh hour concession. Del will work with like-minded delegations with a view to crafting report language that could be circulated in advance by another State Party. Del will also work closely with the Albanian delegation to encourage their active participation, particularly in reaching out to like-minded SPs in the run-up to the EC. -------------- RUSSIAN DESTRUCTION -------------- ¶4. (U) The facility agreements and verification plans for Maradykovsky and Newport (revised to include information on the secondary treatment facility) will be considered by EC-49. Delegation understands that with the exception of a few minor technical concerns, the primary basis for requesting deferral of the Maradykovsky documents will be the fundamental difference in understanding of where credit should be granted. Del fully expects that the Newport changes will be blocked in return. Although the material impact of deferral is minimal, what will need to be handled more delicately will be the TS presentation of destruction figures, whether in the destruction informals or the EC session itself. ¶5. (U) At EC-48, the DG was careful to report agent at Maradykovsky as "neutralized." Since then, he appears to have taken a more definitive stance on end-point of destruction, particularly regarding the Russian 20% intermediate deadline. Del understands that the UK and Germany do not intend to question any claims that Russia has achieved its 20% milestone, and that Paris is considering its position in light of UK and German views. (However, del does expect Berlin to require deferral of the Maradykovsky documents, primarily as a non-confrontational way to postpone the EPOD debate.) Canada and Ireland have also privately expressed its view that the political damage that could be caused by questioning this accomplishment would far outweigh any benefit gained by adhering to a stricter counting procedure. -------------- AGENDA ITEMS -------------- ¶6. (U) As the annotated agenda has not yet been distributed, the following are the items noted in the EC-49 provisional agenda (EC-49/2/Rev.1, 25 May 2007),using the internal numbering in that document. ¶1. (U) Opening of the Session: The new EC Chair is Philippine Ambassador Romeo A. Arguelles. ¶2. (U) Adoption of the Agenda: No problems anticipated. ¶3. (U) DG's Statement: Del will forward the text once it becomes available. ¶4. (U) General Debate: Del has sent Washington a draft statement by Ambassador Javits. ¶5. (U) Status of implementation: 5a. (U) Detailed plans: See summary for detailed commentary on Maradykovsky and Newport. 5b. (U) Conversion of CWPFs. 5c. (U) Report on Destruction Progress: Del has confirmed that the DG issues his report on progress made in SPs that have been granted an extension to their Category 1 CW destruction deadlines at alternating sessions, so this particular source of Iranian mischief should not come up again until EC-50. As usual, del anticipates most possessor states will provide a brief update from the floor on this agenda item. It is critical that Albania provide an articulate and comprehensive overview of its destruction program under this agenda item. 5d. (U) OCW: In accordance with EC-48 report language, the TS has issued EC-49/S/3, a brief overview of the OCW transport and destruction that occurred between Austria and Germany 17-19 April 2006. 5e. (U) Article VII: In his May 22 consultation, facilitator Kimmo Laukenen (Finland) announced that he would hold another consultation prior to EC-49 but after the TS distributes its progress report. Although the on-line (external server) report by the TS was last updated on May 23, no formal DG Note on Article VII status has been issued to date for EC-49. No word has been received on whether the facilitator will follow through with an additional consultation before the EC. 5f. (U) Article X: During the last EC, the U.S. asked the UK to defer the Status of Implementation of Article X Report (EC-48/DG.13) so delegations could discuss it in consultations. Consultations were held on June 6, and the del anticipates the report will gain approval at this EC session. 5g. (U) Article XI: There still seems to be ambiguity about whether China has offered up a facilitator for Article XI. Del will keep Washington informed. 5h. (U) Facility Agreements: Addressed above. 5i. (U) Challenge Inspection: The last report on TS readiness to conduct a challenge inspection was issued for EC-46. Del anticipates this new report (EC-49/DG.11) will cover the most recent TS no-notice tabletop exercise. 5j. (U) Approved Inspection Equipment: A DG Note was issued on April 5 (EC-49/DG.2) regarding revisions to the specifications of approved inspection equipment. Similar to what was done in EC-48, these items are sampling and analysis related - sample collection kit items, GC/MS components, and a chemical reagent. As these types of changes were approved without discussion during EC-48, a similar outcome is expected during EC-49. 5k. (U) 2006 Verification Implementation Report: After extremely late consideration of the VIR last year, the TS has returned to past practice of holding consultations prior to the summer EC. Consultations will be held June 12; delegation will submit written comments when received, and work with the TS in advance of consultations to resolve discrepancies in numbers of inspections and amounts of agent declared and destroyed. ¶6. (U) Draft report of the OPCW for 2006: The first opportunity to see whether any delegation has any problems with the document (EC-49/CRP.1, dated 16 April 16, 2007) may be when the new EC Chair holds informal consultations on June 20 to prepare for the EC. In the past, Iran has used this meeting to declare objections or concerns. ¶7. (U) New Validated Data: The DG issued a Note to the EC containing lists of newly validated data for inclusion in the OCAD (EC-49/DG.7, dated 7 May 2007),and draft decision text has also been circulated (EC-49.DEC.CRP.7, dated 21 May 2007). In addition, the data that was presented for consideration during EC-48 (EC-48/DG.3, dated 2 February 2007; EC-48/DEC/CRP.7, dated 23 February 2007) were deferred to EC-49. It has become common practice for some delegations to request additional time for their capitals to review the data and request deferral. ¶8. (U) Report on implementation of recommendations of Office of Internal Oversight and External Auditor: Document not yet released. ¶9. (U) Report on OIO for 2006: There is no indication yet whether any delegation will have any concerns regarding this report (EC-49/DG.6). ¶10. (U) Office in Africa: In the absence of a new facilitator, there has been no action on this particular item. ¶11. (U) Administrative and financial matters: 11a. (U) Regularizing Payment of Dues: Moldova has submitted a proposed repayment plan, and Germany has expressed its support. Del understands Washington also supports the Moldovan proposal. The DG has issued a paper (EC-49/DG.8). 11b. (U) Income and expenditure: The TS has issued EC-49/DG.3 and EC-49/DG.3/Corr.1. 11c. (U) Audited financial statements: The TS has issued C-12/DG.2//EC-49/DG.10. 11d. (U) Proposed alignment of OPCW and UN Staff Regulations: Per a request from the U.S., the TS has submitted a report on this matter indicating an additional cost of 152,000 Euros if implemented in 2007. Del notes that the U.S. abstained on this matter when it came up in the UN, and it would be difficult not to do likewise at the OPCW. Instead, del recommends that the U.S. simply note that proper management requires that this new expenditure must be included in the budget, and if that means it is not possible in the 2008 budget, then it should be implemented as of 2009. 11e. (U) Home leave: The document has not yet been issued. 11f. (U) Report on tenure policy: The document has not yet been issued. ¶12. (U) Advisory Body on Administrative and Financial Matters: The document has not yet been issued. ¶13. (U) Report of the Scientific Advisory Board: The document has not yet been issued. ¶14. (U) Credentials: The document has not yet been issued. ¶15. (U) Provisional Agenda for November CSP: The TS has issued CSP12/1/Corr.1//EC-49/DG.9. ¶16. (U) EC Dates in 2008: WEOG completely shared the U.S. view that due to the April RevCon, only three EC sessions are needed in 2008. However, there will be explicit language noting that this is an exceptional case and that the pattern of four ECs will be resumed in 2009. ¶17. (U) Any Other Business: Nothing is anticipated under this agenda item at this time. ¶7. (U) Javits sends. ARNALL