CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION (CWC): SCENESETTER FOR

UNCLAS THE HAGUE 001103

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR ISN/CB, VCI/CCB, L/ACV, IO/S
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISP
JOINT STAFF FOR DD PMA-A FOR WTC
COMMERCE FOR BIS (GOLDMAN)
NSC FOR LEDDY
WINPAC FOR WALTER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PARM PREL CWC
SUBJECT: CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION (CWC): SCENESETTER FOR
49TH OPCW EXECUTIVE COUNCIL SESSION


This is CWC-53-07.

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) Two issues will likely dominate the June 26-29 EC
session: Albanian and Russian CW destruction. If Albania
does not complete destruction by the start of the EC, there
is every reason to expect that Iran will again be on a
mission to generate a precedent that can be used against the
U.S. in 2012. Russia will undoubtedly push the envelope to
get the clearest possible statement, particularly in the EC
report language, that it has completed "destruction" of 20%
of its stockpile. With regard to other issues, the Director
General will have only just released his proposed 2008
budget, so that will draw little more than initial
commentary. End Summary.

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ALBANIA
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2. (U) Exactly how the issue of Albania's CW destruction will
play out will be largely determined by what percentage of
their stockpile has been destroyed as of the start of the EC.
However, there is no doubt that if destruction has not been
completed, it will be one of the biggest issues of EC-49,
primarily because any measures applied to Albania will be
scrutinized closely (especially by Iran) as a possible
precedent for the U.S. in 2012. The conclusion of EC-48 set
a fairly positive precedent, with report language that simply
called upon Albania to keep the EC informed and complete
destruction as soon as possible.


3. (U) There seems to be general agreement in WEOG,
particularly among the Close Allies, that similar action on
the part of the EC is the most appropriate path for EC-49.
Russia has informally indicated that report language should
be adequate, but it is doubtful that will be satisfactory to
Iran unless finally offered on Iranian terms as an eleventh
hour concession. Del will work with like-minded delegations
with a view to crafting report language that could be
circulated in advance by another State Party. Del will also
work closely with the Albanian delegation to encourage their
active participation, particularly in reaching out to
like-minded SPs in the run-up to the EC.

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RUSSIAN DESTRUCTION
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4. (U) The facility agreements and verification plans for
Maradykovsky and Newport (revised to include information on
the secondary treatment facility) will be considered by
EC-49. Delegation understands that with the exception of a
few minor technical concerns, the primary basis for
requesting deferral of the Maradykovsky documents will be the
fundamental difference in understanding of where credit
should be granted. Del fully expects that the Newport
changes will be blocked in return. Although the material
impact of deferral is minimal, what will need to be handled
more delicately will be the TS presentation of destruction
figures, whether in the destruction informals or the EC
session itself.


5. (U) At EC-48, the DG was careful to report agent at
Maradykovsky as "neutralized." Since then, he appears to
have taken a more definitive stance on end-point of
destruction, particularly regarding the Russian 20%
intermediate deadline. Del understands that the UK and
Germany do not intend to question any claims that Russia has
achieved its 20% milestone, and that Paris is considering its
position in light of UK and German views. (However, del does
expect Berlin to require deferral of the Maradykovsky
documents, primarily as a non-confrontational way to postpone
the EPOD debate.) Canada and Ireland have also privately
expressed its view that the political damage that could be
caused by questioning this accomplishment would far outweigh

any benefit gained by adhering to a stricter counting
procedure.

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AGENDA ITEMS
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6. (U) As the annotated agenda has not yet been distributed,
the following are the items noted in the EC-49 provisional
agenda (EC-49/2/Rev.1, 25 May 2007),using the internal
numbering in that document.


1. (U) Opening of the Session: The new EC Chair is
Philippine Ambassador Romeo A. Arguelles.


2. (U) Adoption of the Agenda: No problems anticipated.


3. (U) DG's Statement: Del will forward the text once it
becomes available.


4. (U) General Debate: Del has sent Washington a draft
statement by Ambassador Javits.


5. (U) Status of implementation:

5a. (U) Detailed plans: See summary for detailed commentary
on Maradykovsky and Newport.

5b. (U) Conversion of CWPFs.

5c. (U) Report on Destruction Progress: Del has confirmed
that the DG issues his report on progress made in SPs that
have been granted an extension to their Category 1 CW
destruction deadlines at alternating sessions, so this
particular source of Iranian mischief should not come up
again until EC-50. As usual, del anticipates most possessor
states will provide a brief update from the floor on this
agenda item. It is critical that Albania provide an
articulate and comprehensive overview of its destruction
program under this agenda item.

5d. (U) OCW: In accordance with EC-48 report language, the TS
has issued EC-49/S/3, a brief overview of the OCW transport
and destruction that occurred between Austria and Germany
17-19 April 2006.

5e. (U) Article VII: In his May 22 consultation, facilitator
Kimmo Laukenen (Finland) announced that he would hold another
consultation prior to EC-49 but after the TS distributes its
progress report. Although the on-line (external server)
report by the TS was last updated on May 23, no formal DG
Note on Article VII status has been issued to date for EC-49.
No word has been received on whether the facilitator will
follow through with an additional consultation before the EC.

5f. (U) Article X: During the last EC, the U.S. asked the UK
to defer the Status of Implementation of Article X Report
(EC-48/DG.13) so delegations could discuss it in
consultations. Consultations were held on June 6, and the
del anticipates the report will gain approval at this EC
session.

5g. (U) Article XI: There still seems to be ambiguity about
whether China has offered up a facilitator for Article XI.
Del will keep Washington informed.

5h. (U) Facility Agreements: Addressed above.

5i. (U) Challenge Inspection: The last report on TS
readiness to conduct a challenge inspection was issued for
EC-46. Del anticipates this new report (EC-49/DG.11) will
cover the most recent TS no-notice tabletop exercise.

5j. (U) Approved Inspection Equipment: A DG Note was issued
on April 5 (EC-49/DG.2) regarding revisions to the
specifications of approved inspection equipment. Similar to
what was done in EC-48, these items are sampling and analysis
related - sample collection kit items, GC/MS components, and
a chemical reagent. As these types of changes were approved

without discussion during EC-48, a similar outcome is
expected during EC-49.

5k. (U) 2006 Verification Implementation Report: After
extremely late consideration of the VIR last year, the TS has
returned to past practice of holding consultations prior to
the summer EC. Consultations will be held June 12;
delegation will submit written comments when received, and
work with the TS in advance of consultations to resolve
discrepancies in numbers of inspections and amounts of agent
declared and destroyed.


6. (U) Draft report of the OPCW for 2006: The first
opportunity to see whether any delegation has any problems
with the document (EC-49/CRP.1, dated 16 April 16, 2007) may
be when the new EC Chair holds informal consultations on June
20 to prepare for the EC. In the past, Iran has used this
meeting to declare objections or concerns.


7. (U) New Validated Data: The DG issued a Note to the EC
containing lists of newly validated data for inclusion in the
OCAD (EC-49/DG.7, dated 7 May 2007),and draft decision text
has also been circulated (EC-49.DEC.CRP.7, dated 21 May
2007). In addition, the data that was presented for
consideration during EC-48 (EC-48/DG.3, dated 2 February
2007; EC-48/DEC/CRP.7, dated 23 February 2007) were deferred
to EC-49. It has become common practice for some delegations
to request additional time for their capitals to review the
data and request deferral.


8. (U) Report on implementation of recommendations of Office
of Internal Oversight and External Auditor: Document not yet
released.


9. (U) Report on OIO for 2006: There is no indication yet
whether any delegation will have any concerns regarding this
report (EC-49/DG.6).


10. (U) Office in Africa: In the absence of a new
facilitator, there has been no action on this particular
item.


11. (U) Administrative and financial matters:

11a. (U) Regularizing Payment of Dues: Moldova has submitted
a proposed repayment plan, and Germany has expressed its
support. Del understands Washington also supports the
Moldovan proposal. The DG has issued a paper (EC-49/DG.8).

11b. (U) Income and expenditure: The TS has issued
EC-49/DG.3 and EC-49/DG.3/Corr.1.

11c. (U) Audited financial statements: The TS has issued
C-12/DG.2//EC-49/DG.10.

11d. (U) Proposed alignment of OPCW and UN Staff Regulations:
Per a request from the U.S., the TS has submitted a report on
this matter indicating an additional cost of 152,000 Euros if
implemented in 2007. Del notes that the U.S. abstained on
this matter when it came up in the UN, and it would be
difficult not to do likewise at the OPCW. Instead, del
recommends that the U.S. simply note that proper management
requires that this new expenditure must be included in the
budget, and if that means it is not possible in the 2008
budget, then it should be implemented as of 2009.

11e. (U) Home leave: The document has not yet been issued.

11f. (U) Report on tenure policy: The document has not yet
been issued.


12. (U) Advisory Body on Administrative and Financial
Matters: The document has not yet been issued.


13. (U) Report of the Scientific Advisory Board: The document
has not yet been issued.


14. (U) Credentials: The document has not yet been issued.


15. (U) Provisional Agenda for November CSP: The TS has
issued CSP12/1/Corr.1//EC-49/DG.9.


16. (U) EC Dates in 2008: WEOG completely shared the U.S.
view that due to the April RevCon, only three EC sessions are
needed in 2008. However, there will be explicit language
noting that this is an exceptional case and that the pattern
of four ECs will be resumed in 2009.


17. (U) Any Other Business: Nothing is anticipated under this
agenda item at this time.


7. (U) Javits sends.
ARNALL