CODEL KYL AND HARMAN'S LUNCH WITH KNESSET MEMBERS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000740

SIPDIS

CODEL
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PINR PTER KPAL KWBG MASS IR SY LE IS
SUBJECT: CODEL KYL AND HARMAN'S LUNCH WITH KNESSET MEMBERS
FOCUSES ON LEADERSHIP CRISIS IN ISRAEL, IRAN AND IRAQ

REF: A. TEL AVIV 542

B. TEL AVIV 559

C. TEL AVIV 739

Classified By: Marc J. Sievers, Political Counselor.
Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (S) 1. (C) During the visit of CODELs Kyl and Harman to
Israel, February 18-20, the two CODELs -- led by Senator Jon
Kyl (R-AZ) and Representative Jane Harman (D-CA) -- held a
series of meetings with GOI officials and Knesset members
according to a program drawn up by Knesset Member Yuval
Steinitz, the Israeli Co-Chair of the U.S.-Israel
Interparliamentary Commission (IPC). Reftels report on their
meetings with Prime Minister Olmert, Foreign Minister Livni,
and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu. This cable reports
on their February 19 working lunch with members of the
Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. The Israel
side during the lunch was led by Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee Chairman Tzachi Hanegbi and included MKs Matan
Vilnai, Yuval Steinitz, Danny Yatom, Effie Eitam, Ami Ayalon,
and Amira Dotan. Senator Kyl and Representative Harman were
accompanied by Representatives Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) and
Steve Pearce (R-NM),Todd Stiefler from Senator Kyl's office,
two military escorts, POLCOUNS and poloff.


2. (S) Hanegbi and his counterparts focused mainly on what
they termed a crisis of leadership at the highest ranks of
Israel's political and military leadership. They pointed to
this as the reason for unclear goals during Israel-Hizballah
conflict over the summer, and the breakdown in the IDF's
performance throughout most of the fighting. Hanegbi and his
colleagues assessed that Hizballah's reputation had been
weakened, but that it had recovered its capabilities due to
poor enforcement of UNSCR 1701. Effie Eitam said that the
U.S. was wasting its time trying to create a democracy in
Iraq, and warned that the Palestinian leaders have chosen to
serve as radical Islam's "spearhead" in the region. Danny
Yatom expressed his view that Israel should begin talking
with Syria right away, lest it lose the opportunity after
Assad is gone. Representative Harman (D-CA) and Hanegbi both
urged more exchange of information in both directions on Iran
before any military action is taken against Iran's nuclear
weapons infrastructure. END SUMMARY.


3. (C) Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Tzachi
Hanegbi (Kadima) opened discussion during the working lunch
by stressing the importance to Israel of the U.S.-Israel
Interparliamentary Commission (IPC). Senator Kyl (R-AZ)
invited the Israeli side to the U.S. in September, calendars
permitting, and to make members of the Senate, House and
Administration available for meetings during the Israeli
delegation's visit. Senator Kyl (R-AZ) noted that the CODELs
would be visiting an Arrow Missile battery on February 20,
and underscored Congress' support for the Arrow Missile
program. Representative Harman (D-CA) said that the next
challenge for Israel is to hit medium-ranged missiles with
systems like the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL).

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CRISIS OF LEADERSHIP HURT IDF IN CONFLICT WITH HIZBALLAH
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4. (C) Danny Yatom (Labor) turned discussion to what he
described as a crisis of leadership in Israel, noting that
the Israeli public no longer trusts generals serving as
politicians. Hanegbi observed that the current Knesset
session was due to end in March, and characterized it as
unproductive. Hanegbi said that the Foreign Affairs and
Defense Committee "supervised" the Israel-Hizballah conflict
over the summer, and was anxiously awaiting an interim report
on Israel's conduct during the conflict from the Winograd
Commission.


5. (C) Effie Eitam (National Union) explained that the
committee had studied the results of the war in Lebanon.
After six months of intense inquiry in many area, the
Committee has a better informed sense of the government and
IDF's strengths and weaknesses. Eitam said that the real
failure was at the highest level of military management:
"The soldiers are good, but the generals failed. Management

TEL AVIV 00000740 002 OF 003


was not good." He said Israel now understands better the
threat posed by short and medium-range missiles, and will use
passive and active systems to defend against them, and be
ready within a year. The IDF is intensifying its training,
and commanders have been replaced. Eitam stressed, "The
Knesset and the nation are determined now. Israel will be
able to defend itself, and will not be a millstone around the
neck of U.S. forces. We have the same enemies, and will be
ready this time around."


6. (C) Matan Vilnai (Labor) said that the IDF performed
badly, but will perform better -- with the right leadership.
Vilnai expressed his view that the leadership crisis included
Israel's political leadership, and he singled out PM Olmert,
DefMin Peretz, and the cabinet.


7. (C) Responding to a question from Representative Harman
(D-CA),Yuval Steinitz (Likud) said that part of Israel's
problem in confronting Hizballah was that IDF doctrine had
been changed to focus on air superiority and rely on
technology in battle. The view at the top of the IDF was
that you could eliminate Hizballah without a ground
operation. Militarily, Israel won, but it missed an
opportunity to eliminate Hizballah's presence in south
Lebanon for years. The IDF failed to cut off Iran's
logistical arm, and also failed to defend Israel's civilian
population. Steinitz added that Israel also learned that
short and medium-range rocket play an increasingly important
role, and Israel needs to be able to intercept these as well
as enemy aircraft. Steinitz suggested that the U.S.and
Israel could cooperate on finding a technological solution to
the short and medium-range rocket threat.

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HIZBALLAH'S REPUTATION HAS BEEN HURT, BUT IT HAS RE-ARMED
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8. (C) Responding to a question from Senator Kyl (R-AZ),
Hanegbi said that Hizballah's power is still being analyzed.
To date, however, the main impression is that Hizballah is
most concerned about its legitimacy in Lebanon, based on it
serving as Lebanon's "shield." In this sense, Hanegbi said,
Hizballah was badly hurt by Israel. It lost its legitimacy
among Shi'ites. The government led by PM Siniora is still
strong, Hanegbi added: "He is courageous, and the coalition
is stable." Hanegbi said that UNSCR 1701 is hurting
Hizballah, but cautioned that Hizballah is being resupplied
by Iran through Syria, and has restored its military power
through smuggling. "These are clear violations of Resolution
1701," he stressed, adding, "There is no embargo on the
Syrian border. This is a failure of the Siniora government
and the international community. Siniora must understand
that it is his test to pass. Hizballah is fragile. UNIFIL
must be made more assertive."

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EITAM: DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ, LAND FOR PEACE WILL FAIL
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9. (C) Eitam characterized as another problem the sense that
the overall goal of the conflict with Hizballah was not
clear. Without a clear overall goal, it was impossible to
elaborate operational goals and objectives. Because the
overall goal set by political leaders was not clear, the IDF
lost confidence and performed accordingly. "Only when the
goal became a clear one -- to stop the rocket fire against
Israel -- did the IDF perform well," he added. Turning to
the other conflicts in the region, Eitam warned that the U.S.
will have to confront this same problem in Iraq, where the
overall goal of a democratic Iraq remains incoherent: "Do
not waste your time trying to build a democracy in Iraq. It
will not work. And do not waste your time trying to solve
the Israel-Palestinian conflict. You will not solve
anything. It is not about territory anymore. Haniyeh does
not want to be responsible for the kinds of things a leader
should be responsible for -- like traffic and schools.
Haniyeh wants his people to be a spearhead for the Islamist
movement. The more you appease, the more you fail and weaken
Israel. Land for peace does not work. Giving the
Palestinians all the land will not work. As for a nuclear
Iran, it is not an option. If sanctions fail, Israel will
take action."

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YATOM: ISRAEL SHOULD TALK TO SYRIA....NOW

TEL AVIV 00000740 003 OF 003


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10. (C) Returning the discussion to Hizballah and Lebanon,
Danny Yatom noted that Israel had fought in Lebanon many
times, and had succeeded in the past because Israel had good
leaders at those times. He reiterated that the main problem
for Israel was its highest ranking political and military
leaders. Turning the discussion to Syria, Yatom said that he
believes Israel should engage Syria in talks. He noted that
he had participated in all the talks Israel held with Syria
from when Rabin was Prime Minister through Barak's Prime
Ministership. He warned, "If we do not resume talks --
especially when Assad asks for them -- then we will hear
increasingly hostile rhetoric. Now in Israel, you can hear
people saying that there will be war with Syria. Assad is
hearing this and is responding with threats. It is in
Israel's interest to resume talks with Syria."


11. (C) Representative Pearce (R-NM) said that the greatest
weapon of mass destruction that could be exported from the
Middle East is instability. He observed that the terrorists
know that they cannot beat the U.S. militarily, and thus are
intent on destabilizing the U.S. economically. Senator Kyl
(R-AZ) added that the Bush administration is not content with
Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, but -- due to the war in Iraq
-- has been less robust than it would want to be in
confronting Iran. He reminded the Israelis that the U.S. has
other things to worry about as well, like its troop presence
in Asia: "We will rely on diplomacy, sanctions, and public
diplomacy. Iraq is the most complex situation you can
imagine. While we have discussed democracy in Iraq, today
our goal is to get Iraq as stable and secure as possible so
that the Iraqis can handle their own threats, and we can
leave. That is the clear purpose now." Eitam replied, "We
are worried that you are so focused on Iraq, that we will
have to deal with Iran on our own," to which Kyl answered,"
If the U.S. loses in Iraq, the Iran threat will be even
harder to deal with."

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HARMAN, HANEGBI: MORE INFO EXCHANGE IS NEEDED
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12. (S) Representative Harman (D-CA) lamented the
intelligence on WMD in Iraq that the U.S. had before the war,
and praised Israel for the intelligence it has been
collecting on Iran. She said that the U.S. needed more
intelligence on North Korea and Iran.


13. (S) Hanegbi said, speaking for all present, that nobody
wants an invasion of Iran, and that the best anyone could
hope for would be to set Iran's nuclear capabilities back for
a few years. He observed that Israel needs intelligence to
find targets. He added, "We will not allow Iran to go
nuclear. We have the means to prevent it."


14. (U) Neither CODEL Kyl nor CODEL Harman had an opportunity
to review this cable.

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