LIEBERMAN SAYS HE WILL LEAVE COALITION SOON,

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 003379 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG EG IS SUBJECT: LIEBERMAN SAYS HE WILL LEAVE COALITION SOON, EXPECTS ELECTIONS BY JUNE 2008 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Luis Moreno, Reasons 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Minister for Strategic Affairs and leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu (YB) Party, Avigdor Lieberman, met with Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor (DAPDNSA) Elliott Abrams on November 19. Lieberman repeated his position that Annapolis was a mistake, especially if the Palestinians would not recognize Israel as a Jewish state, and that the focus should stay on Palestinian economic development. He also re-emphasized that nothing can be done while attacks from Gaza continue, and that Israel must deal with this threat, including retaking the Philadelphi corridor, if Egypt keeps refusing to prevent smuggling. On his own political plans, the Minister explained that he will leave Olmert's coalition in 2-3 months, taking coalition partner SHAS with him and forcing elections by June 2008. End summary. -------------- Economy and Security Way to Peace -------------- ¶2. (C) Lieberman began the meeting by reiterating his assertion, made both privately and publicly, that talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas were futile because Abbas is weak. He added that Hamas could deliver on peace, but did not want to do it. The key, Lieberman said, was economic development, which had been going slowly, largely because there was no one in the Israeli government responsible for it. ¶3. (C) Abrams agreed that economic development had been too slow to date, but underlined it is an important part of U.S. strategy. Ambassador Jones added that the economic track, while important, was not sufficient. Finally, Abrams pointed out, the most important accomplishment of Annapolis was already done-- both sides have agreed to restart talks. Lieberman said that PM Olmert had invited him and SHAS leader Eli Yishai to go to Annapolis with him, but they declined because they do not believe in the process. ¶4. (C) Lieberman also underscored that talks cannot succeed while there was a threat from Gaza. He said a major military operation into Gaza was inevitable, and would help the negotiations by putting Abbas back in control there. Israel must act in Gaza because Egypt continues to appease Hamas and allow smuggling; Egypt does not understand, or will not believe, that they cannot stop the Muslim Brotherhood from eventually taking power. While Lieberman said he did not want to reoccupy all of Gaza, he underlined that Israel likely would have to retake the Philadelphi corridor. ¶5. (C) Lieberman also expressed concern about Israeli Arabs, whom he described as "more radicalized than the Palestinians." He said Israeli Arabs do not trust the Jews, adding wryly, "with good reason." He believes that the Israeli Arabs are only remaining in Israel because they still think, in the long term, that Israel will lose. -------------- Israeli Politics to Shift Again -------------- ¶6. (C) When asked about his future plans, Lieberman responded that he will leave the governing coalition in 2-3 months, once they are clear of Annapolis, and will take the SHAS party with him. Lieberman explained that SHAS must follow Yisrael Beiteinu because the SHAS constituency is "more right-wing than my own." Lieberman thinks Olmert will fail at forming a new coalition, which will force early elections by June 2008. ¶7. (C) Lieberman emphasized his belief that security will be the only issue for this campaign. While he did not know who would win the election-- Benjamin Netanyahu, Ehud Barak, or someone unexpected-- Lieberman did predict that Olmert's Kadima party would completely collapse during the campaign. ¶8. (U) DAPDNSA Abrams has cleared this cable. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** MORENO