OLMERT, BARAK AND LIVNI HEADING FOR ANNAPOLIS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 003303

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KPAL IS EG SY
SUBJECT: OLMERT, BARAK AND LIVNI HEADING FOR ANNAPOLIS,
WITH OR WITHOUT A JOINT STATEMENT


Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Summary. The Israeli cabinet met the morning of
November 19 to discuss the Annapolis Conference. In a
reportedly contentious session, the cabinet agreed to the
release of 441 Palestinian prisoners, although several key
ministers, including Avigdor Lieberman and Shaul Mofaz,
opposed the release. Prime Minister Olmert told the cabinet
that Israel will honor its Roadmap Phase One commitments on
outposts and settlements, but only after the Conference.
Olmert and President Abbas are scheduled to meet this
afternoon to try to settle remaining differences over the
text of the joint statement, and Olmert will travel to Egypt
tomorrow in an attempt to mend fences with President Mubarak.
Olmert has coopted potential rivals Livni and Barak by
including them in his Annapolis delegation. Olmert and Barak
have sounded similarly tough notes, combining hopes for peace
with admonitions that Israel must remain ready for war.
Meanwhile, despite rumblings and threats from the extreme
right, polls indicate that most Israelis support peace with
the Palestinians. At the same time, however, the Israeli
public still appears largely disengaged and unconvinced that
the new peace process with the Palestinians is serious. End
Summary.

November 19 Cabinet Meeting
Approves Prisoner Release
--------------


2. (C) Prime Minister Olmert, Defense Minister Barak, and
Foreign Minister Livni will head the Israeli delegation to
the Annapolis Conference. At a contentious meeting of his
cabinet November 19, Olmert gained the cabinet's approval for
the release of 441 Palestinian prisoners before Annapolis
(ministers from Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Kadima
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz voted against the
release). Olmert also told the cabinet that following the
Conference, Israel will abide by its Roadmap commitments to
remove illegal outposts, not build new settlements, and not
confiscate Palestinian land. Olmert carefully avoided
committing to a complete freeze on settlement construction,
though a partial freeze that does not include the major
settlement blocs is already in place. Olmert made clear that
the Conference is meant to be a launching point for intensive
negotiations on final status issues, a position explicitly
rejected by Minister for Strategic Threats Avigdor Lieberman,
who continues to threaten to withdraw his Yisrael Beiteinu
bloc from Olmert's coalition if he feels that Olmert has gone
too far.

Problems with the Joint Statement
--------------


3. (C) The Israeli and Palestinian negotiating teams have
been working hard on the text of a joint statement to be read
at the Conference, but have been unable to resolve
differences over several points. Olmert and Palestinian
President Abbas are scheduled to meet this afternoon to
attempt to settle the outstanding issues. Israelis appear
particularly dug in on their insistence that the Palestinians
recognize Israel as a Jewish state, a demand explicitly
rejected by senior Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat in an
interview last week. Writing in left-leaning Ha'aretz,
respected commentator Yoel Marcus described this Israeli
demand as "stupid," asking why Israel needs the Palestinians'
recognition of Israel's Jewish nature. "Are they now the
Council of Torah Sages?" Marcus quipped. Former Sharon
adviser Dubi Weissglas, in an Op Ed in the International
Herald Tribune, made much the same point.


4. (C) Nonetheless, by raising this issue as a central
Israeli demand, Tzipi Livni and others have placed a set of
issues that go to the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict (Right of Return for Palestinian refugees, the
future status of Israel's twenty percent Arab minority, and
Palestinian recognition of Israel as the Jewish homeland) at
the center of the table. The Israeli media is full of
speculation that the U.S. is preparing to make an alternate
"bridging" declaration if the remaining issues prove too
difficult for Olmert and Abbas to resolve in the time
remaining, though the Prime Minister's Office has denied that
the U.S. intends to do this.


5. (C) At a speech November 18 at Sde Boker commemorating
Israel's founding father, David Ben Gurion, Olmert echoed Ben
Gurion's call for Israel to take every opportunity to seek
peace, while remaining prepared for war to ensure the
country's survival. Olmert's eloquence on this score was
reportedly expressed more bluntly by Defense Minister Barak
at a meeting of the Labor Party Central Committee on the same
day. Barak reportedly told Labor Party leaders critical of

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his skeptical view of prospects for peace with the
Palestinians that he fully supports Annapolis and is going
there "with one hand extended in peace, while the other has a
finger on the trigger in case I have to shoot."

Olmert's Regional Outreach
--------------


6. (C) Olmert will travel to Sharm El Sheikh November 20 to
meet President Mubarak. In addition to attempting to reduce
tensions with Egypt that have risen sharply in the past few
months over the question of Egypt's handling of the smuggling
into Gaza of weapons and explosives, as well as the passage
of 80-100 Hamas members into Gaza from Egypt, Olmert will try
to coordinate positions with Mubarak regarding the Conference
and the negotiations that will follow. Olmert and the GOI
are concerned that Egypt may promote a new round of "national
reconciliation" negotiations between Hamas and Fatah after
Annapolis, and Olmert will likely seek to convince Mubarak
that Hamas must remain isolated.


7. (C) Regarding Syrian participation, Olmert stated at a
joint press conference with visiting French Foreign Minister
Kouchner that he hopes Syria will attend the Annapolis
Conference, provided that the Conference remains focused on
the Palestinian track. The Israeli media has been full of
speculation about GOI interest in resuming negotiations with
Syria. Outgoing Israeli head of the National Security
Council Ilan Mizrachi told Israeli radio November 19 that he
had advised Olmert to use negotiations to pry Syria away from
Iran.


8. (C) Comment: Israeli observers comment that Olmert has
cleverly coopted potential rivals Livni and Barak by
including them in his Annapolis delegation, but it remains
unclear how he plans to deal with the inevitable
post-Conference challenges he will face from Lieberman and
the ultra-orthodox Shas party. (Note: Informed sources
point out that while Lieberman has been the most vocal about
leaving the coalition, the majority of Yisrael Beiteinu
members reportedly favor staying in the government. As for
Shas, while much of its membership may support leaving the
coalition, the party's spiritual leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yossef,
and not party leader Eli Yishai, will decide.) Meanwhile,
despite rumblings and threats of violence from the extreme
right, polls indicate that most of the Israeli public
supports peace with the Palestinians and would like to see
Annapolis yield results. Yet much of the public still
appears disengaged and unconvinced that the peace process
with the Palestinians is serious. A leader of the Teachers
Union, whose high school teachers have been on strike for
over five weeks, commented on Israeli radio November 19 that
Olmert should agree to meet with the strikers immediately
since the real crisis is not in Annapolis but in the schools.


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