OLMERT, BARAK AND LIVNI HEADING FOR ANNAPOLIS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 003303 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KPAL IS EG SY SUBJECT: OLMERT, BARAK AND LIVNI HEADING FOR ANNAPOLIS, WITH OR WITHOUT A JOINT STATEMENT Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The Israeli cabinet met the morning of November 19 to discuss the Annapolis Conference. In a reportedly contentious session, the cabinet agreed to the release of 441 Palestinian prisoners, although several key ministers, including Avigdor Lieberman and Shaul Mofaz, opposed the release. Prime Minister Olmert told the cabinet that Israel will honor its Roadmap Phase One commitments on outposts and settlements, but only after the Conference. Olmert and President Abbas are scheduled to meet this afternoon to try to settle remaining differences over the text of the joint statement, and Olmert will travel to Egypt tomorrow in an attempt to mend fences with President Mubarak. Olmert has coopted potential rivals Livni and Barak by including them in his Annapolis delegation. Olmert and Barak have sounded similarly tough notes, combining hopes for peace with admonitions that Israel must remain ready for war. Meanwhile, despite rumblings and threats from the extreme right, polls indicate that most Israelis support peace with the Palestinians. At the same time, however, the Israeli public still appears largely disengaged and unconvinced that the new peace process with the Palestinians is serious. End Summary. November 19 Cabinet Meeting Approves Prisoner Release -------------- ¶2. (C) Prime Minister Olmert, Defense Minister Barak, and Foreign Minister Livni will head the Israeli delegation to the Annapolis Conference. At a contentious meeting of his cabinet November 19, Olmert gained the cabinet's approval for the release of 441 Palestinian prisoners before Annapolis (ministers from Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Kadima Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz voted against the release). Olmert also told the cabinet that following the Conference, Israel will abide by its Roadmap commitments to remove illegal outposts, not build new settlements, and not confiscate Palestinian land. Olmert carefully avoided committing to a complete freeze on settlement construction, though a partial freeze that does not include the major settlement blocs is already in place. Olmert made clear that the Conference is meant to be a launching point for intensive negotiations on final status issues, a position explicitly rejected by Minister for Strategic Threats Avigdor Lieberman, who continues to threaten to withdraw his Yisrael Beiteinu bloc from Olmert's coalition if he feels that Olmert has gone too far. Problems with the Joint Statement -------------- ¶3. (C) The Israeli and Palestinian negotiating teams have been working hard on the text of a joint statement to be read at the Conference, but have been unable to resolve differences over several points. Olmert and Palestinian President Abbas are scheduled to meet this afternoon to attempt to settle the outstanding issues. Israelis appear particularly dug in on their insistence that the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state, a demand explicitly rejected by senior Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat in an interview last week. Writing in left-leaning Ha'aretz, respected commentator Yoel Marcus described this Israeli demand as "stupid," asking why Israel needs the Palestinians' recognition of Israel's Jewish nature. "Are they now the Council of Torah Sages?" Marcus quipped. Former Sharon adviser Dubi Weissglas, in an Op Ed in the International Herald Tribune, made much the same point. ¶4. (C) Nonetheless, by raising this issue as a central Israeli demand, Tzipi Livni and others have placed a set of issues that go to the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Right of Return for Palestinian refugees, the future status of Israel's twenty percent Arab minority, and Palestinian recognition of Israel as the Jewish homeland) at the center of the table. The Israeli media is full of speculation that the U.S. is preparing to make an alternate "bridging" declaration if the remaining issues prove too difficult for Olmert and Abbas to resolve in the time remaining, though the Prime Minister's Office has denied that the U.S. intends to do this. ¶5. (C) At a speech November 18 at Sde Boker commemorating Israel's founding father, David Ben Gurion, Olmert echoed Ben Gurion's call for Israel to take every opportunity to seek peace, while remaining prepared for war to ensure the country's survival. Olmert's eloquence on this score was reportedly expressed more bluntly by Defense Minister Barak at a meeting of the Labor Party Central Committee on the same day. Barak reportedly told Labor Party leaders critical of TEL AVIV 00003303 002 OF 002 his skeptical view of prospects for peace with the Palestinians that he fully supports Annapolis and is going there "with one hand extended in peace, while the other has a finger on the trigger in case I have to shoot." Olmert's Regional Outreach -------------- ¶6. (C) Olmert will travel to Sharm El Sheikh November 20 to meet President Mubarak. In addition to attempting to reduce tensions with Egypt that have risen sharply in the past few months over the question of Egypt's handling of the smuggling into Gaza of weapons and explosives, as well as the passage of 80-100 Hamas members into Gaza from Egypt, Olmert will try to coordinate positions with Mubarak regarding the Conference and the negotiations that will follow. Olmert and the GOI are concerned that Egypt may promote a new round of "national reconciliation" negotiations between Hamas and Fatah after Annapolis, and Olmert will likely seek to convince Mubarak that Hamas must remain isolated. ¶7. (C) Regarding Syrian participation, Olmert stated at a joint press conference with visiting French Foreign Minister Kouchner that he hopes Syria will attend the Annapolis Conference, provided that the Conference remains focused on the Palestinian track. The Israeli media has been full of speculation about GOI interest in resuming negotiations with Syria. Outgoing Israeli head of the National Security Council Ilan Mizrachi told Israeli radio November 19 that he had advised Olmert to use negotiations to pry Syria away from Iran. ¶8. (C) Comment: Israeli observers comment that Olmert has cleverly coopted potential rivals Livni and Barak by including them in his Annapolis delegation, but it remains unclear how he plans to deal with the inevitable post-Conference challenges he will face from Lieberman and the ultra-orthodox Shas party. (Note: Informed sources point out that while Lieberman has been the most vocal about leaving the coalition, the majority of Yisrael Beiteinu members reportedly favor staying in the government. As for Shas, while much of its membership may support leaving the coalition, the party's spiritual leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yossef, and not party leader Eli Yishai, will decide.) Meanwhile, despite rumblings and threats of violence from the extreme right, polls indicate that most of the Israeli public supports peace with the Palestinians and would like to see Annapolis yield results. Yet much of the public still appears disengaged and unconvinced that the peace process with the Palestinians is serious. A leader of the Teachers Union, whose high school teachers have been on strike for over five weeks, commented on Israeli radio November 19 that Olmert should agree to meet with the strikers immediately since the real crisis is not in Annapolis but in the schools. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES