ISRAEL CALM, NO OFFICIAL COMMENT ON SYRIAN CLAIMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 002714 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS ASEC SY IS SUBJECT: ISRAEL CALM, NO OFFICIAL COMMENT ON SYRIAN CLAIMS OF IAF INCURSION Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (U) The Israeli media were dominated September 6 and 7 by Syrian media reports that IAF aircraft penetrated deep into Syrian airspace early in the morning of September 6 and may or may not have dropped ordinance on unspecified targets. Much of the television news commentary the evening of September 6 focused on the lack of comment by GOI sources. Prime Minister Olmert delivered a forty-minute speech to his Kadima Party on September 6, but made no reference to Syria. The mass circulation Yediot Aharonot quoted Olmert as saying after the speech that he felt "relaxed," which was taken by the paper to mean the Prime Minister was unconcerned about a Syrian response. In its morning broadcast September 7, Israel Radio aired an announcement without mentioning the source that the Israeli assessment is that Syria will not respond to the alleged air incursion. Television news reports from towns along the northern border September 6 reported that all was quiet along Israel's northern frontier. Tel Aviv was calm the evening of September 6 and morning of September 7. ¶2. (C) Defense Minister Barak and IDF Chief of General Staff Ashkenazi hosted a special Jewish New Year toast for the IDF high command September 6. Neither made any public reference to Syria, but photos of the two smiling broadly were broadcast on television news reports that evening and printed in the newspapers September 7. Media commentators took their smiles as evidence that the Israeli military high command was satisfied with the mysterious operation (whatever it may have been),even as the pundits puzzled over the uncharacteristic --for Israel-- lack of leaks. An Embassy contact close to Barak commented that the Defense Minister had told him just the day before "I'm not at all at ease about Syria," but our source similarly claimed no inside information about what had happened. ¶3. (U) Not surprisingly, given the exceptionally tight-lipped GOI response to the Syrian allegations, the September 7 press is full of pundit speculation, but without any of the commentators claiming access to any official information. The commentary generally assumed the Syrian claims of an air incursion to be true, with most suggesting that Olmert, Barak and Ashkenazi must have had an awfully good reason to carry out such a high-risk mission, whatever its purpose, particularly after a series of high-level statements in the past week or so indicating that tensions with Syria had diminished. ¶4. (C) Comment. The GOI's assessment that a Syrian military response was unlikely, as reported on Israeli Radio, is borne out by DAO, which confirms that there is no visible indication of Israeli preparation for Syrian retaliation. That said, tensions with Syria are likely to remain high in the coming days, and we assume the IDF has contingency plans ready for activation if needed. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES