U/S BURNS' MEETING AT ISRAEL'S MFA ON LEBANON,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 06 TEL AVIV 002576 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2017 TAGS: PREL MASS NATO PTER KNNP UNSC SY IR EG LE IS SUBJECT: U/S BURNS' MEETING AT ISRAEL'S MFA ON LEBANON, NATO, THE VATICAN, MODERATE ARAB STATES, AND INDIA TEL AVIV 00002576 001.2 OF 006 Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (S) After the August 16 signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on U.S. Security Assistance to Israel and the press conference that followed, Under Secretary Burns and his delegation participated in a roundtable discussion of issues with an Israeli MFA delegation led by MFA Director General Aharon Abramovitch. On Lebanon and UNSCR 1701, the Israelis reiterated concerns about arms smuggling to Hizballah and the presence of Hizballah in southern Lebanon. On Israel's relationship with NATO, the Israelis listed their five priorities and next steps. On relations with the Vatican, the Israeli side recounted the steps it has taken to conclude a fundamental agreement with the Holy See. Finally, the Israelis provided their assessment that Iran is driving some Gulf states to intensify their contacts with Israel. They suggested that U.S. arms sales to the Gulf be conditioned on more overt support for the Israel-Palestinian peace process. ¶2. (S) Under Secretary Burns and the U.S. delegation suggested that Israel work with USUN on Lebanon and UNSCR 1701 implementation. He urged the Israelis to engage with NATO through participation in military endeavors, with the aim of becoming a global partner for NATO. The Under Secretary noted USG support for the conclusion of a SIPDIS fundamental agreement between Israel and the Vatican, and welcomed Israel's ideas on how to encourage moderate Arabs and the Gulf countries to be more supportive on the Israel-Palestinian issue. He shared U.S. thinking on the current and future relationship with India, noting that it would likely become a vital ally over the next 20 years. END SUMMARY. -------------- SIGNING OF THE SECURITY ASSISTANCE MOU -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In a brief, August 16 ceremony at the Israeli MFA, Under Secretary Burns and Israeli MFA Director General Aharon Abramovitch signed a Memorandum of Understanding governing the U.S. provision of USD 30 billion to Israel over a 10-year period, from 2008 to 2018. In his remarks, Under Secretary Burns stressed that the MOU reaffirms America's longstanding commitment to Israel's security, as the U.S. has done since Israel's founding in 1948, and demonstrates that the U.S. will stand by its friends in dangerous times and places. He noted that the U.S. is negotiating military assistance agreements with Egypt and Gulf partners, but emphasized that the U.S. security assistance package for Israel will maintain Israel's Qualitative Military Edge (QME) over existing and potential threats in the region, including Iran, Syria, and terrorist groups like Hamas and Hizballah. Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer, who headed the Israeli delegation, conveyed Israel's gratitude for the MOU, noting that it not only bolstered the confidence of Israel's defense establishment, but would also have a positive impact on Israel's economy, especially as Israel devotes 17 percent of its budget to defense spending. Questions posed by international and local journalists focused on the relationship between the MOU and Israel's QME, Israeli defense spending and prospects for peace with the Palestinians, and U.S. support for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. One journalist confirmed that Israel -- unlike any other recipient of U.S. security assistance -- is allowed to use FMF monies for off-shore procurement. Joining in the ceremony were Israeli MOD Director General Pinchas Buchris and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Salai Meridor. The U.S. and Israeli delegations then relocated within the MFA for a roundtable discussion of issues, the main points of which follow. -------------- LEBANON AND UNSCR 1701 IMPLEMENTATION -------------- ¶4. (S) Israeli MFA Deputy Director General and Head of the Center for Political Research Nimrod Barkan led discussion of Israel's assessment of the situation in Lebanon, and of UNSCR TEL AVIV 00002576 002.2 OF 006 1701 implementation. While Israel's deterrence was bolstered by the war with Hizballah the previous summer, it would likely decline over the next 3-6 years, as the Syrians and other groups threatening Israel adopt Hizballah's "muqawama" resistance model. Israel currently has no ability to defend itself against short-range missile and rocket penetration of its airspace. The war with Hizballah reminded everyone -- especially Israel's enemies -- of Israeli society's sensitivity to civilian casualties. Barkan stressed that Israel's enemies have "abolished the front" that would emerge in a conventional conflict. Through reliance on short range missiles and rockets, they have overcome Israeli deterrence and believe that they can keep Israel off balance and provoke it to attack through terrorist acts. Once on the offensive, the IDF would be stopped by rockets, missiles, anti-air and anti-tank weapons. ¶5. (S) On Lebanon, Barkan started by observing that the last year since the cease-fire between Hizballah and Israel had been the quietest along the Israel-Lebanon border since 1968. The only terrorist attack along the border was carried out by a Jihadist group against UNIFIL forces operating in the area. Hizballah's identity is yoked simultaneously to Iran and to its resistance concept, existing in a state of tension. It serves as a forward strategic base for Iran in Lebanon and -- along with Syria and Iran -- is an element of a coordinated front against Israel. Hizballah was weakened by the previous summer's war, and the legitimacy of its resistance concept took a blow due to the punishment inflicted on the Lebanese civilian population. More recently, Hizballah declared publicly that it would not attack Israel or the Sheba Farms. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have seen their legitimacy increase through the ongoing action at Nahr al-Bared in the north and especially as they have asserted more control over southern Lebanon. Barkan noted, nevertheless, that Hizballah continues to operate quietly in the south. It does not want to fight with Israel now -- as this would disrupt its current re-supply efforts -- and Iran is encouraging it to stay quiet and work out a compromise with the Siniora government that keeps it politically engaged. Lebanese PM Siniora is showing determination, but Syria is working against him as it does not wish to see anti-Syrian forces assume power in Lebanon. Under these conditions, Israel believes that Siniora will only weaken as time passes. ¶6. (S) Barkan listed the ways in which UNSCR 1701 has not been fully implemented: (a) the two Israeli soldiers who were kidnapped at the start of last summer's war have not been returned; (b) illegal weapons continue to proliferate in Lebanon and remain outside state control; (c) the south remains outside of the GOL's control; (d) illegal militias have not been disarmed and dismantled; (e) arms smuggling continues in northern Lebanon; (f) Hizballah continues to store weapons in southern Lebanon and (g) illegal, foreign forces continue to operate in Lebanon. In Israel's view, UNIFIL is satisfactory as a force, but is not fulfilling its peacekeeping role. By the end of June 2008, Israel wants to see implementation of the recommendations put forward by LIBAT (the advisory group on Lebanon),UNSC establishment of a sanctions committee to enforce the embargo currently in place, and a timetable for execution of UNSCR 1559-related aspects of 1701 (e.g., the dismantling of militias). ¶7. (S) Under Secretary Burns responded that Lebanon is a top priority for the Bush Administration along with Iraq and Iran. The U.S. worked closely with Israel to negotiate UNSCR ¶1701. UNIFIL has been performing better than anyone had initially expected it would, and it is larger and better armed than anyone originally hoped it would be. The U.S. will discuss the renewal of UNIFIL's mandate the week of August 20 and will push for its extension. Burns agreed that a number of UNSCR 1701's provisions remain unfulfilled, and urged that Israel work with the U.S. in New York. The U.S. is working hard to get the GOL to ask for an international monitoring mission to be placed along the Lebanon-Syria border. It would help if Israel would work with the Europeans on this -- especially France. Israel could also help PM Siniora by reducing overflights over Lebanon, completing the process of eliminating cluster munitions from its arsenal, and answering the UN's questions concerning cluster munitions usage during the war. (He noted that State had told Congress it would get the answers to the questions TEL AVIV 00002576 003.2 OF 006 from Israel.) Under Secretary Burns added that the U.S. intends to make support for PM Siniora a major part of its effort this fall. Acting PM Assistant Secretary Mull noted that Germany would start a pilot border-monitoring program next month. He stressed that it is vital that the LAF emerges as a capable, assertive force, and noted that the U.S. is supplying it through a long-term train and equip program. -------------- NATO-ISRAEL RELATIONS -------------- ¶8. (C) MFA Deputy Director General for the Western European Division Rafael Barak led off discussion of the Israel-NATO relationship by thanking the Under Secretary for U.S. support of Israel within the alliance. He listed recent milestones, e.g., the conclusion of Israel's Individual Cooperation Program (ICP) and NATO A/SYG Colston's June visit -- and summarized Israel's five main priorities for relations with NATO: A) formalizing political dialogue at the ambassadorial level on Iran and radical Islam, with meetings two times per year; B) establishing formal contacts with NATO's Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) center, and securing invitations to NATO's Senior Defense Group on Proliferation (DGP) and Senior Political-Military Group on Proliferation (SGP); C) increasing Israel's involvement in NATO fora concerning countering Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats; border protection, and non-conventional terrorism; D) becoming a client in maintenance and spare parts of the NATO Maintenance and Supply Organization (NAMSO); E) concluding a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with NATO. ¶9. (C) On next steps, Barak said that Israel wants to enter into a "corridor" type of upgraded relationship with NATO so that Israel ends up having the same kind of relationship with NATO that Partnership for Peace (PfP) countries have with the alliance. Israel would like to intensify its bilateral relationship with the alliance, especially as the Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) "holds Israel back." Barak stated that Israel might be able to help resolve the matter of establishing a NATO training center in Rome. ¶10. (C) Under Secretary Burns observed that the MD is useful, but not the avenue in which Israel would build up its relationship with the alliance. Action, according to the Under Secretary, would go further in promoting Israel's cause than its membership in various international organizations and working groups. He urged Israel to focus on fulfilling its ICP with NATO. He shared his thinking on NATO's current situation, and noted that the U.S. is pushing the alliance in the direction of forming global partnerships with allies like Japan, Australia, Jordan and South Korea. As for Israel, from a military standpoint, the best way for it to get ahead would be to participate in NATO-led military endeavors like Operation Active Endurance (OAE). Israel would find value in participating in these operations as other important countries like Morocco, Algeria, Russia and Ukraine participate in them. The Under Secretary suggested that it would be in Israel's interest to become a key global partner of NATO -- and an essential partner. ¶11. (C) Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense Mary Beth Long urged that Israel remain involved in the MD, and participate to the fullest extent in National Defense University Near East and South Asia (NESA) seminars and conferences. -------------- ISRAEL'S RELATIONS WITH THE HOLY SEE -------------- ¶12. (C) MFA World Jewish and Inter-Religious Affairs Bureau Head Shmuel Ben-Shmuel said that negotiations with the Vatican over the previous two years had led to substantive progress, and an increase in the number of high-level meetings in Rome and Israel. The Israeli side has become TEL AVIV 00002576 004.2 OF 006 more flexible, and the Vatican recognizes this. Ben-Shmuel noted, however, that no breakthroughs have as yet been achieved on the issues of tax exempt status and municipal taxes. Israel has put forward a compromise proposal and the Vatican is considering this. Agreement has been reached on two issues: national health insurance for clergymen, and government support for churches. Additionally, Ben-Shmuel said that there has been a major breakthrough on the church's ability to seek legal redress in Israeli courts due to flexibility on both sides. ¶13. (C) Ben-Shmuel noted that there had been four high-level meetings during the previous ten months, including a plenary meeting in Rome in March 2007; two high-level staff meetings, and an unofficial high-level meeting between MFA DG Abramovitch and the Vatican's Secretary of State. He said that it was agreed in the plenary meeting that there would be four more high-level staff meetings before December 2007, and another plenary meeting in December to advance negotiations. Ben-Shmuel said that Israel is determined to achieve agreement on all outstanding issues with the Vatican, but expects the Vatican to compromise, as Israel has. ¶14. (C) MFA DG Abramovitch said that Israel is making a tremendous effort to advance negotiations. He personally visited the Vatican twice over the previous four months. He claimed that Israel has been the originator of all the ideas to move issues forward over the last year, suggesting that the Vatican could show some good-will on its part. Regarding the taxation issue, he noted that Israel led with a proposal, and is now waiting to hear from the Vatican. Abramovitch cautioned that Israel has to be careful that it does not undertake measures that would affect other churches and the Islamic faith. Abramovitch said that, in his view, there has been a real breakthrough in the atmosphere of negotiations with the Vatican. Still, he hopes the Vatican will respond positively to Israel's proposals, and come to Israel in December with ideas on how to proceed on taxation issues. ¶15. (C) Under Secretary Burns noted that the Vatican's Secretary of State had told him the previous week how SIPDIS important the fundamental agreement with Israel is to him and to the Vatican. The Under Secretary stressed that the U.S. also believes that such an agreement between Israel and the Holy See is very important, and commended Abramovitch and his team on how much they have done on the issue. He shared his sense that the Vatican feels that Israel is "holding back," and -- like Israel -- wants to conclude an agreement. The Under Secretary said he would encourage the Vatican to send a team to Israel in December. -------------- MODERATE ARAB AND GULF STATES -------------- ¶16. (S) MFA Deputy Director General for the Middle East and Peace Process Division Jacob Hadas said that Iran is causing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to intensify their dialogues with Israel. They share the same views as Israel on Iran, Syria and Hamas. Israel has some ideas that it is willing to share on how to get the GCC countries "on board" with the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. The GCC countries strongly oppose a military solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis, and see the international community divided in its approach towards Iran. Their fear of Iran -- and their concern that the U.S. cannot protect them -- causes them to maintain good relations with Iran. Hadas said, "One of the Gulf country officials we have been talking to told us, 'Our target is mutual, but we beg to differ on how to achieve it.'" ¶17. (S) Hadas said that Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman share with Israel many of the same views on Palestinian issues, but take different actions on the ground. Israel finds it difficult to get them to provide real support to Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas, and to "reward" Israel for being forward-leaning on the Palestinian question. When the Arab League initiative was reactivated, Israel thought that since the Palestinians were not in a position to take action on the ground in support of the initiative, perhaps the moderate Arab states could react on their behalf. Israel believes that it has acted in support of the Arab initiative and the Arabs have failed to respond to Israeli steps towards TEL AVIV 00002576 005.2 OF 006 the Palestinians. Hadas said that -- in Israel's view -- the problem now is that the GCC countries (specifically the UAE, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar) are afraid to act. They fear rejection by Egypt. Hadas proposed conditioning U.S. Gulf sales to GCC states to visible support on the Israel-Palestinian issue. Progress in resolving the Israel-Palestinian conflict would reduce Iran's ability to stoke tensions in the region, help PA President Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Olmert, and undermine Hamas. Hadas mentioned that Israel has a list of ideas on how to elicit greater support for the peace process from the moderate Arab states and GCC countries. ¶18. (S) Under Secretary Burns said that Secretary Rice has been trying to get the Gulf states to be tougher on Iran, but that they continue to "sit on the fence." The U.S. has developed the Gulf Security Dialogue -- an initiative to strengthen their capabilities -- with the hope that this will bring them around to taking a firmer stand. He stressed that the GSD is a major effort, and noted that the UAE appears particularly encouraged by it. -------------- INDIA AND SOUTH ASIA -------------- ¶19. (S) Under Secretary Burns led off discussion of South Asia by observing that it had become an area of vital importance to the U.S. since September 11. He suggested that the U.S. would be involved in Afghanistan for at least a decade, noting that we already had 27,000 troops there and that it is a winnable conflict. Our presence in Afghanistan requires us to engage Pakistan as well, which -- the Under Secretary said -- is the most important country in the fight SIPDIS against Al Qaeda. President Musharraf is our partner, and is facing numerous challenges. His political strategy in the tribal border areas has not worked, and so he is re-considering using military forces to quell the regions. The Administration has asked Congress to allocate USD 75 million for our own use in dealing with the tribal areas. Pakistan's government is unpredictable. It is possible we could witness the return of Benazir Bhutto in the next few months. ¶20. (S) The Under Secretary characterized the U.S.-India relationship as positive. While the relationship with India had been difficult for 60 years, it has changed dramatically in the past 10 years. India may become one of our most important allies over the next generation. The country is a democracy and holds enormous economic and trade potential. Boeing, for instance, is providing USD 11 billion worth of aircraft to India. Microsoft and General Electric are expanding in Hyderabad and Bangalore. At the same time, the Indian government is quietly steering India away from the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM),and the U.S. just concluded an agreement on civil nuclear cooperation with India. -------------- PARTICIPANTS IN THE MEETING -------------- ¶21. (SBU) The Israeli delegation was led by MFA DG Aharon Abramovitch and included: Yoram Ben-Zeev, Deputy Director General, North America Division Rafael Barak, Deputy Director General, Western Europe Division Jacob Hadas, Deputy Director General, Middle East and Peace Process Division Roni Yaar, Deputy Director General, International Organizations Division Nimrod Barkan, Deputy Director General, Head of the Center for Political Research Shmuel Ben-Shmuel, Head, World Jewish and Inter-Religious Affairs Bureau Salai Meridor, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Alon Ushpiz, Chief of Coordination, MFA Aviv Ezra, Assistant to Foreign Minister Livni ¶22. (SBU) The U.S. delegation was led by Under Secretary Burns and included: Ambassador Richard H. Jones Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Stephen Mull TEL AVIV 00002576 006.2 OF 006 Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Mary Beth Long NEA/IPA Deputy Director Nicole Shampaine Middle East Division Chief COL Ron Tuggle, J-5, JCS Alan Davidson, Country Director for Israel, OSD Herro Mustafa, Special Assistant, P Embassy Tel Aviv Political Counselor Embassy Tel Aviv POL-MIL Officer (notetaker) ¶23. (U) This cable has been cleared by Under Secretary Burns. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES