YEDIOT ARTICLE CLAIMS BARAK TILTS RIGHT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002448

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS KPAL IS
SUBJECT: YEDIOT ARTICLE CLAIMS BARAK TILTS RIGHT,
CHALLENGES OLMERT'S APPROACH TO NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE
PALESTINIANS


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Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (U) Israel's largest circulation daily, Yediot Aharonot,
ran a banner headline on August 10 "Barak: There is no
chance for a settlement with the Palestinians." Although not
a direct interview, the article by well-connected journalist
Shimon Schiffer states that Barak has been telling associates
that:

-- Israelis will not accept "fantasies" about a deal with the
Palestinians;

-- Israel should not even talk about withdrawing from any
part of the West Bank until it has developed a technical
means of stopping rocket attacks -- and that will take 3-5
years;

-- Political discussions with Abu Mazen and Salam Fayyad are
"packaging" and "atmospherics" since Barak is skeptical that
the Palestinian leaders can deliver on security;

-- Negotiating a declaration of principles is therefore a
waste of time, and Olmert will end up appearing detached from
reality;

-- Barak has no intention of agreeing to the Prime Minister's
instructions to remove roadblocks and ease Palestinian access
and movement in the West Bank since his responsibility to
protect Israeli citizens comes first;

-- No understanding can be reached with Hamas, who are a
"bunch of murderers." A large-scale ground operation into
Gaza cannot be ruled out.


2. (C) Although the Yediot report carefully avoids claiming
that its journalists spoke to Barak directly, MOD Chief of
Staff BG Mike Herzog told a visiting HIRC staffer and the
Army Attache much the same thing August 9. Herzog said the
current political efforts with the Palestinians were too much
"rosy optimism that is divorced from reality" and that the
U.S. Administration and GOI had neither the clout nor the
time to achieve a breakthrough.


3. (C) Former security adviser to Barak Pini Meidan
commented to PolCouns and EconCouns August 10 that the Yediot
article should be seen largely as domestic political spin by
Barak. According to Meidan, Barak has had to recalculate his
plan to become the next prime minister since PM Olmert now
appears likely to survive the final report of the Winograd
Committee, and the Committee's report may not be released
until well into 2008 in any case. In Meidan's assessment,
Barak entered Olmert's coalition in June expecting that there
would be general elections in the spring, but now he has to
face the possibility that Olmert may serve as PM until the
end of his term in 2010.


4. (C) In addition, Barak has faced considerable criticism
in the media over the past few weeks for his silence on key
policy issues. The Yediot article therefore served as a
vehicle for Barak to reach out to Israel's large center-right
voting bloc and to highlight his differences with Olmert.
Barak also appeared to be staking out a position in
opposition to Vice Prime Minister Haim Ramon's advocacy of
removing outposts and outlying settlements in the near
future. Meidan agreed, however, that while Barak's public
dismissal of Abu Mazen and Salam Fayyad's capabilities
probably represents his true views, it was politically
maladroit both in terms of damaging Barak's relations with
the Palestinian leadership and because Barak came across as
directly challenging U.S. policy. Meidan also felt that
Barak risked alienating much of his Labor Party political
base.


5. (C) Perhaps anticipating negative reactions from the
U.S., Palestinians, and within Labor, Barak reportedly has
already backtracked somewhat. Barak political adviser Alon
Pinkas told PolCouns that during a meeting of the Labor Party
weekly Knesset faction the morning of August 10, Barak said
that he had not changed his views and continued to believe
that the international meeting proposed by the U.S. will be
an important move forward. Pinkas was not able, however, to
say whether Barak had clarified his views on a political
process with the Palestinians.


6. (C) Comment: Despite the highly unhelpful Yediot story,
Barak remains an important player whose cooperation will be
necessary if the GOI is going to step up security
coordination with the Palestinians, improve conditions on the
ground, or dismantle outposts. One way to help Barak climb

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down from the hard-line position he appears to have set for
himself would be to step up engagement with MOD and IDF on a
joint program to develop technical means of blocking short
and medium-range rockets.

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