YEDIOT ARTICLE CLAIMS BARAK TILTS RIGHT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002448 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS KPAL IS SUBJECT: YEDIOT ARTICLE CLAIMS BARAK TILTS RIGHT, CHALLENGES OLMERT'S APPROACH TO NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE PALESTINIANS TEL AVIV 00002448 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, Reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (U) Israel's largest circulation daily, Yediot Aharonot, ran a banner headline on August 10 "Barak: There is no chance for a settlement with the Palestinians." Although not a direct interview, the article by well-connected journalist Shimon Schiffer states that Barak has been telling associates that: -- Israelis will not accept "fantasies" about a deal with the Palestinians; -- Israel should not even talk about withdrawing from any part of the West Bank until it has developed a technical means of stopping rocket attacks -- and that will take 3-5 years; -- Political discussions with Abu Mazen and Salam Fayyad are "packaging" and "atmospherics" since Barak is skeptical that the Palestinian leaders can deliver on security; -- Negotiating a declaration of principles is therefore a waste of time, and Olmert will end up appearing detached from reality; -- Barak has no intention of agreeing to the Prime Minister's instructions to remove roadblocks and ease Palestinian access and movement in the West Bank since his responsibility to protect Israeli citizens comes first; -- No understanding can be reached with Hamas, who are a "bunch of murderers." A large-scale ground operation into Gaza cannot be ruled out. ¶2. (C) Although the Yediot report carefully avoids claiming that its journalists spoke to Barak directly, MOD Chief of Staff BG Mike Herzog told a visiting HIRC staffer and the Army Attache much the same thing August 9. Herzog said the current political efforts with the Palestinians were too much "rosy optimism that is divorced from reality" and that the U.S. Administration and GOI had neither the clout nor the time to achieve a breakthrough. ¶3. (C) Former security adviser to Barak Pini Meidan commented to PolCouns and EconCouns August 10 that the Yediot article should be seen largely as domestic political spin by Barak. According to Meidan, Barak has had to recalculate his plan to become the next prime minister since PM Olmert now appears likely to survive the final report of the Winograd Committee, and the Committee's report may not be released until well into 2008 in any case. In Meidan's assessment, Barak entered Olmert's coalition in June expecting that there would be general elections in the spring, but now he has to face the possibility that Olmert may serve as PM until the end of his term in 2010. ¶4. (C) In addition, Barak has faced considerable criticism in the media over the past few weeks for his silence on key policy issues. The Yediot article therefore served as a vehicle for Barak to reach out to Israel's large center-right voting bloc and to highlight his differences with Olmert. Barak also appeared to be staking out a position in opposition to Vice Prime Minister Haim Ramon's advocacy of removing outposts and outlying settlements in the near future. Meidan agreed, however, that while Barak's public dismissal of Abu Mazen and Salam Fayyad's capabilities probably represents his true views, it was politically maladroit both in terms of damaging Barak's relations with the Palestinian leadership and because Barak came across as directly challenging U.S. policy. Meidan also felt that Barak risked alienating much of his Labor Party political base. ¶5. (C) Perhaps anticipating negative reactions from the U.S., Palestinians, and within Labor, Barak reportedly has already backtracked somewhat. Barak political adviser Alon Pinkas told PolCouns that during a meeting of the Labor Party weekly Knesset faction the morning of August 10, Barak said that he had not changed his views and continued to believe that the international meeting proposed by the U.S. will be an important move forward. Pinkas was not able, however, to say whether Barak had clarified his views on a political process with the Palestinians. ¶6. (C) Comment: Despite the highly unhelpful Yediot story, Barak remains an important player whose cooperation will be necessary if the GOI is going to step up security coordination with the Palestinians, improve conditions on the ground, or dismantle outposts. One way to help Barak climb TEL AVIV 00002448 002 OF 002 down from the hard-line position he appears to have set for himself would be to step up engagement with MOD and IDF on a joint program to develop technical means of blocking short and medium-range rockets. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES