LINDENSTRAUSS ATTACKS OLMERT GOVERNMENT, BUT ONLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002225

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2012
TAGS: PGOV PINR IS
SUBJECT: LINDENSTRAUSS ATTACKS OLMERT GOVERNMENT, BUT ONLY
BARAK CAN BRING IT DOWN

Classified By: A/DCM MARC J. SIEVERS. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: State Comptroller Lindenstrauss issued a
scathing critique of Israel's lack of homefront preparedness
during the Second Lebanon War (SLW). Lindenstrauss presented
his report to the Knesset on July 18, and its assessment that
little was done by government authorities to assist or
protect Israelis living in the north has served as grist for
pundits to once again savage Israel's civilian and military
leadership for poor performance during the war. Two
opposition parties -- the Likud and the National Union/NRP --
submitted no-confidence motions in response to the report,
but Olmert's strategy of attacking the messenger
(Lindenstrauss) and promising to implement reforms has kept
the coalition intact and the Knesset relatively calm in its
final week before the summer recess. The final Winograd
Report on the SLW is now not expected until "after the
holidays," a reference to the Jewish holy days end in early
October -- but also a euphemism for anticipated delay. Our
contacts believe Labor Party leader Ehud Barak whether and
when to call for early elections after that report is
released. End Summary.

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Livni in Line
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2. (U) FM Livni defended Olmert's government, arguing during
a press conference with visiting EU High Representative
Solana that "the role of the government is to correct the
findings revealed in the report," and ignored questions about
whether Olmert should resign. After attacking Lindenstrauss
for his purported anti-Olmert agenda, the Prime Minister's
staff took the high ground and issued an unctuous press
statement, which noted "The Prime Minister respects and
esteems the impressive professional work that has been
carried out by the State Controller's Office personnel." The
PMO argued that the GOI has "greatly dealt with learning the
lessons, changing the priorities, defining responsibility and
overcoming the gaps (exposed in the 582-page report).

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Still Waiting for Winograd
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3. (U) The Comptroller's report, so far, has had no
immediate impact on Olmert's coalition in terms of its
stability, but it did stimulate speculation regarding the
final report of the Winograd Committee. Some press reports
asserted that the Winograd report might be delayed by several
months because of the need to issue warning letters to those
likely to be harmed by its findings. The committee denied
these reports in a statement, which revealed that it has "not
yet finished the examination and analysis stage. Before
formulating the final version of the report, the committee
will take care to enable anyone liable to be harmed by the
report to know what he is liable to be harmed by and to raise
arguments before it on those issues, if that has not yet
happened." Winograd reportedly informed the IDF Military
Advocate General (JAG) that officers liable to be affected by
the final report's findings will not enjoy all of the rights
afforded by a formal state commission of inquiry (which
Winograd's committee is not). Most analysts believe this
approach is likely to drag out the release of the final
report, perhaps by several months.

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... and Barak
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4. (U) Labor Party leader Ehud Barak is keeping his
political cards close to his vest, but has made it clear that
his sights are set on the Premiership. Labor MK's Ofir Pines
Paz and Eitan Cabel (the SYG of the party),who quit the
Olmert government, recently reiterated their calls for
Olmert's resignation following the Lindenstrauss report.
However, other Barak supporters serving in the government,
Agriculture Minister Shalom Simchon and Deputy Defense
Minister Matan Vilna'i, spun a different tune, by predicting
that Labor would not quit the coalition over the final
Winograd Report.


5. (C) Kadima and Likud contacts told us that Barak is
preparing the ground to challenge both Olmert and Netanyahu
in early elections in 2008. Publication of the Winograd
report is the only ideal opportunity for Barak to call for
early elections, according to a Likud analyst. Our Kadima
contact assessed that a report that is perceived as "harsher"
than the interim report will obligate Olmert to accede to a
Barak-led initiative for elections. A "softer" report could
prompt Barak to remain in the government in exchange for an

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agreement with Olmert that will allow Barak to determine the
timing of early elections. All of our contacts assessed that
Olmert faced little risk of an internal Kadima coup at this
juncture; Olmert has deftly rewarded his allies with new
positions in the cabinet and managed to keep his rivals in
line (in Livni's case) or out of the limelight (in the case
of Mofaz and Sheetrit).

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Bibi's Bad Company
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6. (C) Opposition Leader Binyamin Netanyahu has called for
Likud Party primaries for August 14, a move that one of his
advisors told us was meant to call the bluff of MK Silvan
Shalom, who has since withdrawn from the race. Two
right-wing mavericks - Moshe Feighlin and Danny Danon -- are
contesting Netanyahu's leadership of the party. Netanyahu's
advisor assessed that anything less than an 80 percent tally
would be perceived as negative for Netanyahu. The advisor
commented that the possibility of a national unity
government, bruited in the press, is a possibility, but only
if Olmert initiated such a move in order to galvanize Israel
for action against Iran. He said that in such a scenario,
Netanyahu would probably accept an offer of the Foreign
Ministry.


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