LINDENSTRAUSS ATTACKS OLMERT GOVERNMENT, BUT ONLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002225 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2012 TAGS: PGOV PINR IS SUBJECT: LINDENSTRAUSS ATTACKS OLMERT GOVERNMENT, BUT ONLY BARAK CAN BRING IT DOWN Classified By: A/DCM MARC J. SIEVERS. Reason 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary: State Comptroller Lindenstrauss issued a scathing critique of Israel's lack of homefront preparedness during the Second Lebanon War (SLW). Lindenstrauss presented his report to the Knesset on July 18, and its assessment that little was done by government authorities to assist or protect Israelis living in the north has served as grist for pundits to once again savage Israel's civilian and military leadership for poor performance during the war. Two opposition parties -- the Likud and the National Union/NRP -- submitted no-confidence motions in response to the report, but Olmert's strategy of attacking the messenger (Lindenstrauss) and promising to implement reforms has kept the coalition intact and the Knesset relatively calm in its final week before the summer recess. The final Winograd Report on the SLW is now not expected until "after the holidays," a reference to the Jewish holy days end in early October -- but also a euphemism for anticipated delay. Our contacts believe Labor Party leader Ehud Barak whether and when to call for early elections after that report is released. End Summary. -------------- Livni in Line -------------- ¶2. (U) FM Livni defended Olmert's government, arguing during a press conference with visiting EU High Representative Solana that "the role of the government is to correct the findings revealed in the report," and ignored questions about whether Olmert should resign. After attacking Lindenstrauss for his purported anti-Olmert agenda, the Prime Minister's staff took the high ground and issued an unctuous press statement, which noted "The Prime Minister respects and esteems the impressive professional work that has been carried out by the State Controller's Office personnel." The PMO argued that the GOI has "greatly dealt with learning the lessons, changing the priorities, defining responsibility and overcoming the gaps (exposed in the 582-page report). -------------- Still Waiting for Winograd -------------- ¶3. (U) The Comptroller's report, so far, has had no immediate impact on Olmert's coalition in terms of its stability, but it did stimulate speculation regarding the final report of the Winograd Committee. Some press reports asserted that the Winograd report might be delayed by several months because of the need to issue warning letters to those likely to be harmed by its findings. The committee denied these reports in a statement, which revealed that it has "not yet finished the examination and analysis stage. Before formulating the final version of the report, the committee will take care to enable anyone liable to be harmed by the report to know what he is liable to be harmed by and to raise arguments before it on those issues, if that has not yet happened." Winograd reportedly informed the IDF Military Advocate General (JAG) that officers liable to be affected by the final report's findings will not enjoy all of the rights afforded by a formal state commission of inquiry (which Winograd's committee is not). Most analysts believe this approach is likely to drag out the release of the final report, perhaps by several months. -------------- ... and Barak -------------- ¶4. (U) Labor Party leader Ehud Barak is keeping his political cards close to his vest, but has made it clear that his sights are set on the Premiership. Labor MK's Ofir Pines Paz and Eitan Cabel (the SYG of the party),who quit the Olmert government, recently reiterated their calls for Olmert's resignation following the Lindenstrauss report. However, other Barak supporters serving in the government, Agriculture Minister Shalom Simchon and Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilna'i, spun a different tune, by predicting that Labor would not quit the coalition over the final Winograd Report. ¶5. (C) Kadima and Likud contacts told us that Barak is preparing the ground to challenge both Olmert and Netanyahu in early elections in 2008. Publication of the Winograd report is the only ideal opportunity for Barak to call for early elections, according to a Likud analyst. Our Kadima contact assessed that a report that is perceived as "harsher" than the interim report will obligate Olmert to accede to a Barak-led initiative for elections. A "softer" report could prompt Barak to remain in the government in exchange for an TEL AVIV 00002225 002 OF 002 agreement with Olmert that will allow Barak to determine the timing of early elections. All of our contacts assessed that Olmert faced little risk of an internal Kadima coup at this juncture; Olmert has deftly rewarded his allies with new positions in the cabinet and managed to keep his rivals in line (in Livni's case) or out of the limelight (in the case of Mofaz and Sheetrit). -------------- Bibi's Bad Company -------------- ¶6. (C) Opposition Leader Binyamin Netanyahu has called for Likud Party primaries for August 14, a move that one of his advisors told us was meant to call the bluff of MK Silvan Shalom, who has since withdrawn from the race. Two right-wing mavericks - Moshe Feighlin and Danny Danon -- are contesting Netanyahu's leadership of the party. Netanyahu's advisor assessed that anything less than an 80 percent tally would be perceived as negative for Netanyahu. The advisor commented that the possibility of a national unity government, bruited in the press, is a possibility, but only if Olmert initiated such a move in order to galvanize ISRAEL for action against Iran. He said that in such a scenario, Netanyahu would probably accept an offer of the Foreign Ministry. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CRETZ