CODEL ISRAEL'S MEETING WITH AMOS GILAD: REGIONAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002112

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PTER KNNP MNUC EG IS SY
SUBJECT: CODEL ISRAEL'S MEETING WITH AMOS GILAD: REGIONAL
THREATS FROM IRAN, SYRIA, HIZBALLAH; EGYPT'S ROLE IN
SMUGGLING PREVENTION, RELEASE OF ISRAELI SOLDIER.

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz.
Reasons: 1.4(b,d).


1. (S) SUMMARY. CODEL Israel on July 5 discussed with the
MOD's political-military bureau chief MG (Ret) Amos Gilad the
evolving relationship between Iran, Syria, and Hizballah,
Egypt's role in working to broker the release of captured
Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, and curbing weapons smuggling
into the Gaza Strip. Gilad said he perceived Iran to be the
driving force behind Syria's and Hizballah's attempts to
promote instability in the region but admitted that each
entity has its own goals and aspirations. He worried that
Iran is well on its way to obtaining a nuclear device, which
would further destabilize the region and reinforce Iran's
ties with Syria and its proxy Hizballah. He also assessed
Iran needed to maintain these strong regional relationships
to avoid appearing weak. He claimed that Syria has been
emboldened by Israel's war with Hizballah in Lebanon last
summer and that conflict between Israel and Syria was
inevitable, although it may not occur this summer. Gilad
said he believes Hizballah is stronger than Lebanese Prime
Minister Siniora's government and is working through
democratic means to change the Lebanese Parliament's makeup
and strengthen the group's political legitimacy. As a result
Gilad said he thought Siniora will likely be gone following
the upcoming presidential election in the fall. Turning to
Egypt,s role in brokering the release of Shalit, Gilad said
he believes Egypt is making a good-faith effort to secure
Shalit's release but does not have the adequate leverage to
force Hamas's hand. Gilad, however, believes that Egypt
could be doing more to prevent weapons smuggling into the
Gaza Strip. Gilad said that the US should demand from Egypt
arrest reports, verification on weapons seizures, and proof
of the destruction of tunnels along the Philadelphi corridor.
END SUMMARY.
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Iran
--------------

2. (S) Congressman Steve Israel (D, New York) on July 5
discussed with the MOD's Amos Gilad Iran's nuclear ambitions
and its relationship with Syria and Hizballah. Gilad said he
had been concerned with Iran's nuclear program since 1996 and
recounted that at that time he believed that US policy toward
Iran would merely delay Iran's nuclear progress rather than
stop it. He said Iran probably only needs to create one
nuclear device, rather than a stockpile of nuclear weapons,
to shift the dynamics of power in the region, which includes
widening the terrorist umbrella, and negating peace efforts
with the Palestinians. He also said that Iran will continue
to strengthen its relationship with Syria and Hizballah to
maintain its influence in the region. Gilad said Iran
continues to provide Syria with Katyusha rockets, FAJR-3 and
FAJR-5 rockets, and UAVs. He added that he has reason to
believe that Iran's General Suleimani, a leader in the IRGC
currently operating in Lebanon, is in charge of these weapons
transfers, as well as importing IED's into Iraq.
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Syria/Lebanon
--------------

3. (S) Gilad said he thought Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad
was a weak leader who had surrounded himself with like-minded
advisors, who were reluctant to challenge his perspective.
Gilad thought Al-Asad had been emboldened by Israel's
conflict with Hizballah in Lebanon and is currently working
to strengthen Syria's ties with Hizballah and Iran. Gilad
told CODEL Israel he believes Al-Asad sees himself as the new
Nasser and claimed he is "fascinated by violence." Gilad
believes Al-Asad is enhancing Syria's ties with Iran and
Hizballah while sending out messages of peace to Israel and
the West. Continuing, he asserted that Israel has sensitive
intelligence (NFI) suggesting Syria is currently supplying
Hizballah with FAJR-3 (range of 43 km),M 220 (50 km),and M
302 (115 km) rockets, which Syria is now producing, rather
than importing from other countries such as Russia (Gilad did
not specify whether or not he thought Syria was continuing to
import these specific types of rockets, despite now having
the ability to produce them domestically). He also stated
that any missile with a range exceeding 20 kilometers was a
strategic threat to Israel. Gilad said he thought it was
unlikely Israel would go to war with Syria this summer but
thought conflict with Syria was inevitable and claimed that
if confrontation occurs, "Hizballah will be weakened for a
long time to come."


4. (S) The MOD political director told CODEL Israel he
believed Hizballah, with Iran and Syria's support, was now
stronger than Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora's government
and that Siniora would only last another couple of months in

TEL AVIV 00002112 002.2 OF 002


power. He pointed out that Siniora is unable to request the
positioning of international troops along the Lebanese/Syrian
border to prevent weapons smuggling. Gilad said he believes
Siniora does not have the authority to make this decision and
that Syria would never allow it. He said Hizballah was
currently rebuilding its military stockpiles, while also
working to change Lebanon's parliamentary makeup. Gilad
plainly stated that he favored democracy, but said stability
in the Arab world was more important and cited victories by
Hizballah, HAMAS, and Iraq,s Shi'a parties as shortcomings
of democracy in the Arab world. When CODEL Israel asked him
if Hizballah had any weaknesses, he responded that Hizballah
does fear losing support among the Lebanese public and
funding from Syria and Iran. He suggested that anything the
US could do to facilitate this isolation would be helpful.
--------------
Egypt/Shalit
--------------

5. (C) Turning to the status of captured Israeli soldier
Gilad Shalit, Gilad said he thought the Egyptians were making
a sincere effort to recover Shalit but were not succeeding.
He told CODEL Israel that he believed securing Shalit's
release was in Egypt's interest because it would pad their
credibility as an honest broker in the region. However, he
didn't think Egypt had the proper leverage to force HAMAS to
release the Israeli soldier because HAMAS is likely to use
Shalit's release to enhance its own credibility. Gilad also
noted it was interesting that HAMAS's takeover in the Gaza
Strip would probably increase Shalit's chances of being
released.


6. (C) Continuing, he also said Egypt could be doing more to
stop weapons smuggling from Egypt into the Gaza Strip but
said he did not have "smoking gun" proof that Egypt was
willfully allowing smuggling to continue. Gilad told CODEL
Israel that Egyptian officials know the names, routes, and
locations of smugglers but often fail to act on this
information because many of the smugglers are businessmen
with local and government contacts, which allows them to act
with impunity. He also said the Israeli government had proof
that Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman knew about $20
million that had passed through the Rafah crossing, although
Suleiman later told him that no such transaction had
occurred. Gilad clarified that he believed the Egyptians
continued to play a critical role in maintaining regional
peace, but was concerned about what a post-Mubarak Egypt
would look like. He said the US could effectively pressure
Egypt to improve its prevention of weapons smuggling into the
Gaza Strip. Gilad continued that the US could ask Egypt to
provide benchmarks such as: monthly statistics on arrest
numbers, confiscated contraband, and destruction of tunnels.


7. (C) Gilad thanked CODEL Israel for the US's continued
economic assistance and expressed confidence that the MOU
would be extended in the coming weeks and that he is
satisfied with US support.


8. (U) CODEL Israel did not have an opportunity to clear
this message.

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