CODEL ISRAEL'S MEETING WITH AMOS GILAD: REGIONAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002112 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2017 TAGS: PREL PTER KNNP MNUC EG IS SY SUBJECT: CODEL ISRAEL'S MEETING WITH AMOS GILAD: REGIONAL THREATS FROM IRAN, SYRIA, HIZBALLAH; EGYPT'S ROLE IN SMUGGLING PREVENTION, RELEASE OF ISRAELI SOLDIER. Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz. Reasons: 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. CODEL Israel on July 5 discussed with the MOD's political-military bureau chief MG (Ret) Amos Gilad the evolving relationship between Iran, Syria, and Hizballah, Egypt's role in working to broker the release of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, and curbing weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip. Gilad said he perceived Iran to be the driving force behind Syria's and Hizballah's attempts to promote instability in the region but admitted that each entity has its own goals and aspirations. He worried that Iran is well on its way to obtaining a nuclear device, which would further destabilize the region and reinforce Iran's ties with Syria and its proxy Hizballah. He also assessed Iran needed to maintain these strong regional relationships to avoid appearing weak. He claimed that Syria has been emboldened by Israel's war with Hizballah in Lebanon last summer and that conflict between Israel and Syria was inevitable, although it may not occur this summer. Gilad said he believes Hizballah is stronger than Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora's government and is working through democratic means to change the Lebanese Parliament's makeup and strengthen the group's political legitimacy. As a result Gilad said he thought Siniora will likely be gone following the upcoming presidential election in the fall. Turning to Egypt,s role in brokering the release of Shalit, Gilad said he believes Egypt is making a good-faith effort to secure Shalit's release but does not have the adequate leverage to force Hamas's hand. Gilad, however, believes that Egypt could be doing more to prevent weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip. Gilad said that the US should demand from Egypt arrest reports, verification on weapons seizures, and proof of the destruction of tunnels along the Philadelphi corridor. END SUMMARY. -------------- Iran -------------- ¶2. (S) Congressman Steve Israel (D, New York) on July 5 discussed with the MOD's Amos Gilad Iran's nuclear ambitions and its relationship with Syria and Hizballah. Gilad said he had been concerned with Iran's nuclear program since 1996 and recounted that at that time he believed that US policy toward Iran would merely delay Iran's nuclear progress rather than stop it. He said Iran probably only needs to create one nuclear device, rather than a stockpile of nuclear weapons, to shift the dynamics of power in the region, which includes widening the terrorist umbrella, and negating peace efforts with the Palestinians. He also said that Iran will continue to strengthen its relationship with Syria and Hizballah to maintain its influence in the region. Gilad said Iran continues to provide Syria with Katyusha rockets, FAJR-3 and FAJR-5 rockets, and UAVs. He added that he has reason to believe that Iran's General Suleimani, a leader in the IRGC currently operating in Lebanon, is in charge of these weapons transfers, as well as importing IED's into Iraq. -------------- Syria/Lebanon -------------- ¶3. (S) Gilad said he thought Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad was a weak leader who had surrounded himself with like-minded advisors, who were reluctant to challenge his perspective. Gilad thought Al-Asad had been emboldened by Israel's conflict with Hizballah in Lebanon and is currently working to strengthen Syria's ties with Hizballah and Iran. Gilad told CODEL Israel he believes Al-Asad sees himself as the new Nasser and claimed he is "fascinated by violence." Gilad believes Al-Asad is enhancing Syria's ties with Iran and Hizballah while sending out messages of peace to Israel and the West. Continuing, he asserted that Israel has sensitive intelligence (NFI) suggesting Syria is currently supplying Hizballah with FAJR-3 (range of 43 km),M 220 (50 km),and M 302 (115 km) rockets, which Syria is now producing, rather than importing from other countries such as Russia (Gilad did not specify whether or not he thought Syria was continuing to import these specific types of rockets, despite now having the ability to produce them domestically). He also stated that any missile with a range exceeding 20 kilometers was a strategic threat to Israel. Gilad said he thought it was unlikely Israel would go to war with Syria this summer but thought conflict with Syria was inevitable and claimed that if confrontation occurs, "Hizballah will be weakened for a long time to come." ¶4. (S) The MOD political director told CODEL Israel he believed Hizballah, with Iran and Syria's support, was now stronger than Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora's government and that Siniora would only last another couple of months in TEL AVIV 00002112 002.2 OF 002 power. He pointed out that Siniora is unable to request the positioning of international troops along the Lebanese/Syrian border to prevent weapons smuggling. Gilad said he believes Siniora does not have the authority to make this decision and that Syria would never allow it. He said Hizballah was currently rebuilding its military stockpiles, while also working to change Lebanon's parliamentary makeup. Gilad plainly stated that he favored democracy, but said stability in the Arab world was more important and cited victories by Hizballah, HAMAS, and Iraq,s Shi'a parties as shortcomings of democracy in the Arab world. When CODEL Israel asked him if Hizballah had any weaknesses, he responded that Hizballah does fear losing support among the Lebanese public and funding from Syria and Iran. He suggested that anything the US could do to facilitate this isolation would be helpful. -------------- Egypt/Shalit -------------- ¶5. (C) Turning to the status of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, Gilad said he thought the Egyptians were making a sincere effort to recover Shalit but were not succeeding. He told CODEL Israel that he believed securing Shalit's release was in Egypt's interest because it would pad their credibility as an honest broker in the region. However, he didn't think Egypt had the proper leverage to force HAMAS to release the Israeli soldier because HAMAS is likely to use Shalit's release to enhance its own credibility. Gilad also noted it was interesting that HAMAS's takeover in the Gaza Strip would probably increase Shalit's chances of being released. ¶6. (C) Continuing, he also said Egypt could be doing more to stop weapons smuggling from Egypt into the Gaza Strip but said he did not have "smoking gun" proof that Egypt was willfully allowing smuggling to continue. Gilad told CODEL Israel that Egyptian officials know the names, routes, and locations of smugglers but often fail to act on this information because many of the smugglers are businessmen with local and government contacts, which allows them to act with impunity. He also said the Israeli government had proof that Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman knew about $20 million that had passed through the Rafah crossing, although Suleiman later told him that no such transaction had occurred. Gilad clarified that he believed the Egyptians continued to play a critical role in maintaining regional peace, but was concerned about what a post-Mubarak Egypt would look like. He said the US could effectively pressure Egypt to improve its prevention of weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip. Gilad continued that the US could ask Egypt to provide benchmarks such as: monthly statistics on arrest numbers, confiscated contraband, and destruction of tunnels. ¶7. (C) Gilad thanked CODEL Israel for the US's continued economic assistance and expressed confidence that the MOU would be extended in the coming weeks and that he is satisfied with US support. ¶8. (U) CODEL Israel did not have an opportunity to clear this message. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES