DOE/NNSA/LLNL TEAM'S VISIT TO ISRAEL SEES PROGRESS

S E C R E T TEL AVIV 001665 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2017 TAGS: PREL KNNP MNUC IR SY KN IS SUBJECT: DOE/NNSA/LLNL TEAM'S VISIT TO ISRAEL SEES PROGRESS ON USDOE-IAEC COOPERATION Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (S) From March 13 through March 14, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Team comprised of officials from the DOE-affiliated National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) met with officials from the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC), Israel's National Data Center (NDC),and the Soreq Nuclear Research Center to exchange views on joint work carried out under the U.S.-Israel Letter of Intent on Cooperation in the Fields of Nonproliferation, Arms Control, Regional Security, and Combating Terrorism. The work has focused on enhancing Israel's ability to monitor seismic events in the region. The joint statement that resulted from the meetings (see paragraph 26) contains background on the collaboration to date, as well as plans for future work agreed to during the session. ¶2. (S) Discussion over the two days focused on: -- The existing capabilities of Israel's seismic monitoring system; -- Israel's research on various methodologies to detect and characterize seismic events; -- Preliminary results of subterranean chemical explosive tests conducted by Israel; -- Preliminary results of the Israeli NDC's cooperation with its Slovak and Italian counterparts, and planned joint activities with the German NDC; and -- The Israeli NDC's findings on the DPRK's October 9, 2006 nuclear test. ¶3. (S) At the end of the visit, the two sides agreed to pursue the following collaborative efforts: -- The U.S. will consider ways to help Israel calibrate the array at Mt. Meiron so that the array satisfies Israel's monitoring needs. -- The Israeli side will resolve the question of whether it wants to further improve its 3D geologic or velocity model; and then will come to the U.S. side with its decision. The two sides will then consider how to collaborate in this area of research. -- The U.S. side will evaluate the Israeli NDC's analysis of the DPRK's October 9, 2006 nuclear test. Because the number of staff at the Israeli NDC is small, it can benefit from the experience of others. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- DEVELOPING THE CAPABILITIES OF ISRAEL'S DETECTION ARRAY -------------- -------------- ¶4. (S) Israeli NDC Chief Yochai Ben Horin briefed on the capabilities of Israel's seismic array at Mt. Meiron, and how it can be used to detect and monitor seismic events in the region. The Mt. Meiron Seismic Array was certified by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) on December 22, 2004. On May 4, 2006, the station was declared fully operational. Mt. Meiron does not use automatic detectors, but is currently evaluating several. ¶5. (S) Discussion then focused on ways to improve data processing at Mt. Meiron so that it is more effective. The U.S. side suggested selecting a set of ground truth (GT) events and analyzing them. Nakanishi suggested Israel supply a list of GT events starting in 2004 for joint analysis. ¶6. (S) Ben Horin next briefed on Israel's Cooperating National Facilities (CNFs),and expressed interest in using them as an array. Israel's five CNFs are located in a straight line running north-south. In addition to the five CNFs, Israel also has two International Monitoring System (IMS) stations: one in Eilat (at the southernmost tip of Israel),and the other on Mt. Meiron. Israel's NDC collects data from these two IMS stations, as well as from other IMS stations worldwide. Ben Horin noted that the Israeli NDC's main objective over the last ten years has been monitoring the Middle East, and that CTBT monitoring has fallen to a secondary objective. ¶7. (S) Itshak Lederman from the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) noted that Israel recently re-approached the Swedes to see if they would be willing to finance the construction of the two additional stations in Jordan. (NOTE: In the course of the meeting, and in side-discussions, Phillips explicitly reiterated what Nakanishi had noted to the Israeli side during their meeting in 2005 -- that the NNSA is not able to provide assistance regarding the set-up of stations in Jordan. Israeli team chief Itshak Lederman from the IAEC acknowledged this. END NOTE.) -------------- - DISCUSSION ON METHODS TO LOCATE SEISMIC EVENTS -------------- - ¶8. (S) Vladimir Pinsky presented a briefing, "The Location of Mixed and Single Seismic Events with Strong Noise Interference," in which he discussed a "new, robust" procedure to increase the chance of accurately identifying a location -- "Network Beamforming." Pinsky tested the method for the last nuclear test in Pakistan against the backdrop of an earthquake in Iran 1,000 kilometers away. According to Pinsky, the Network Beamforming method's advantages include its robustness, resistance to outliers, fast computation, and no dependency on origin time. Pinsky claimed that it can also distinguish between double or multiple events. -------------- -------------- DEVELOPING A VIRTUAL NETWORK THROUGH DATA SHARING -------------- -------------- ¶9. (S) Ben Horin then turned the discussion to the topic of seismic monitoring through open data sharing. He claimed that a virtual seismic network can be created which collects data from around the world, and said that the Europeans are already doing this. Ben Horin noted, as an example, that Israel used the IRIS network to analyze the October 9, 2006 event in the DPRK. ¶10. (S) In order to develop a virtual network, Ben Horin proposed a work plan consisting of the following stages: -- Mapping all relevant and available stations. -- Defining and agreeing upon criteria. -- Defining the optimal virtual network. -- Establishing a training period on the network. He stressed that in pursuing this workplan with the U.S., the idea would be to learn from the U.S. so as not to make the same, avoidable mistakes. -------------- DISCUSSION ON DETECTING SEISMIC EVENTS -------------- ¶11. (S) In his presentation, "Construction of Three Dimensional Velocity Model," Gideon Leonard said that the Geological Survey of Israel (GSI) constructed a three dimensional, layered structure of the Levant. He reviewed the model's successful aspects -- as well as its less successful ones -- and presented his initial conclusions and plan for future work on the model. ¶12. (S) In her presentation, "Algorithms for Non-detects," Anat Sakov explained the rationale for her work, and its application to the study of earthquakes in Africa. ¶13. (S) In his presentation, "Geological Applications of Inteferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (INSAR)," Gideon Bar from the GSI demonstrated how infrared satellites can be used to locate and monitor topographical changes, including those caused by subterranean explosions. He demonstrated how the April 2000 collapse of the Jordanian dam at the Dead Sea Works occurred along a detected subsidence area, and how -- since the 1980s -- more than 1,000 sinkholes have formed in 30-40 sites along the shore of the Dead Sea. Bar also showed how INSAR and incoherence phenomena could be used to locate fault lines, and how INSAR permanent scatterers can be used to detect land subsiding due to subway construction. Bar observed that INSAR satellites can also detect the effects of pumping at oil and gas fields. ¶14. (S) In a presentation on "Using the Automatic Discrimination Method," Tsviki Hirsch of the Israeli NDC claimed that there is no fully accepted method that can discriminate between underground explosions and earthquakes. ¶15. (S) Yefim Gitterman of the Geophysical Institute of Israel (GII) then made a presentation on "Decoupling and Depths-of-Burial Explosion Experiments at the Oran Phosphate Quarry in Israel." Gitterman described how he conducted various explosions with 3-5 ton charges at three different depths below ground. The Mt. Meiron Array IMS station then recorded the signals and calculated their magnitudes. Gitterman reported that the deepest explosion yielded the largest amplitude and highest frequency, and that amplitudes became minimal further away from the blast. The experiments were done under a contract with the U.S. DOE, the U.S. Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) and the NNSA. ¶16. (S) Gitterman then previewed the upcoming Seyerin Infrasound Calibration Experiment sponsored by the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command. This experiment involves surface explosions to observe sound and seismic observation to calibrate infrasound IMS stations. The experiment is scheduled to run from 2007 through 2009. The closest infrasound stations include those in Tunisia, Germany, Kazakhstan and Kenya. (Israel does not have any infrasound stations -- only seismic stations.) Gitterman noted that to date, there have been no infrasound ground truth explosions in the Middle East. The first blasts will be conducted from September 2007 through December 2008. Detectors in Crete, Jordan, Cyprus and Turkey will be involved. -------------- --- DISCUSSION ON HOW TO CHARACTERIZE SEISMIC EVENTS -------------- --- ¶17. (S) In his presentation on the Israeli NDC's cooperation with Slovakia's NDC, Ben Horin described how the two data centers performed a joint seismic exercise. ¶18. (S) Ben Horin then described how the Israeli NDC analyzed the October 9, 2006 nuclear test in the DPRK. The goal of the project was to test the Israeli NDC's capabilities regarding event detection, location, magnitude and characterization. Ben Horin noted that the Israeli NDC's automatic detection systems did not trigger. Israel used 12 stations to analyze the data from the event. It compared its findings on the event's location with findings from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS),various Russian stations, and the IDC station SEL. and the NDC. The NDC calculated the magnitude at 4.34, versus the Israeli NDC's calculation of 4.1. The Israeli NDC calculated the yield as between .5 to 2 kilotons. Ben Horin wondered aloud how the Russians calculated it at 15 kilotons. He said that in the end, in Israel's view, the yield was probably 1 kiloton or below, but he would not be surprised if others maintained that the yield was 2 kilotons. ¶19. (S) Based on that project, he said that the Israeli NDC is now thinking that it is probably best for the NDC to focus on characterization of events, rather than detection. Ben Horin said that he learned from the project that one needs to be careful about determining yield and location. For Israel, it would probably be better to focus on information supplied by that country where the event took place. (NOTE: During the discussion of the event, Ben Horin claimed that the DPRK notified the Chinese and Russians only twenty minutes prior to the detonation, reportedly due to concerns that the Russians and Chinese would confront them on the potential environmental implications of the detonation. END NOTE.) ¶20. (S) Ben Horin then reviewed his plans for joint exercises in 2007. The first such exercise would start the week of March 19. Only one event will be analyzed. The participants will spend two weeks conducting analysis, and then review their results. The next such event will take place in June ¶2007. Ben Horin noted that details on these exercises are on the CTBT's website. He said that the goal of these exercises is to provide the Israeli NDC with a better sense of where it should invest its precious resources: "We hope to learn by others' mistakes, for example, from non-detects." -------------- CONCLUSIONS FROM THE FIRST DAY -------------- ¶21. (S) In summarizing the first day's discussions, Itshak Lederman from the IAEC made the following points: -- The U.S. and Israel have the same mission in this cooperation: monitoring Iran and possibly Syria. -- The DOE and NNSA could complement LLNL's assistance to Israel, possibly by providing assistance on the discrimination issue. Tips to save time and speed up Israel's attainment of its full capabilities would be welcome. A first start would be considering how to support and bolster Mt. Meiron's capabilities. -- Israel would welcome U.S. assistance in gaining access to Turkish and Central Asian data, and access to data from a Gulf exercise through Reduction of Earthquake Losses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (RELEMR) exercises. -- On travel time modeling, U.S. and Israeli experts need to confer on which direction to go. A decision needs to be made. If both sides decide to continue cooperation in this area, then Israel would prefer more collaborative cooperation, with exchanges of views every six months. -- Israel would welcome the U.S. evaluating its work and reports, and sharing its views on Israel's methods and results. ¶22. (S) Ben Horin made the following points about the Israeli NDC: -- It is operational, but is also conducting research supported by the GII. -- It is small and cannot compete with larger NDCs. It is nevertheless willing to contribute in areas that other NDCs are reluctant to touch. It is willing to look at how to make research operational (e.g., to research detectors at Mt. Meiron, and to help the U.S. with infrasound research). -- It wants to conduct more tests on the 3D geological model before deciding to put it to rest. Only after this is done will the Israeli NDC decide on which path to take to move ahead. -------------- DAY TWO RESULTS ON AGREEMENT ON NEXT STEPS -------------- ¶23. (S) The second day of meetings followed up on issues discussed during day one. The IAEC described efforts at the Israeli NDC to analyze regional seismic data. One project involves looking at patterns in frequency-time plots of seismograms. The technique is known to be effective for large events and the NDC is now testing it for smaller events. Another project involves looking at pattern and correlations in raw data streams. The IAEC is looking at different and innovative methods of data analysis, and requested comments from LLNL regarding the methodologies. ¶24. (S) Ben Horin described the results of an exercise conducted by the Israeli and Slovak NDCs, for which a report was written. Ben Horin also described analysis and interpretation done by the Israeli NDC on the DPRK nuclear test. This was also summarized in a written report, which was provided to the U.S. team. Ben Horin asked for LLNL assistance in reviewing the reports and providing an assessment of the work for the NDC exercise, and on the analysis of the DPRK event. LLNL agreed to do this. ¶25. (S) The IAEC and NNSA agreed to make an effort to identify funding for UNESCO's RELEMR program to support a meeting on regional seismic data-sharing and to look at mechanisms to assemble a virtual seismic network. This meting is tentatively set for Spring, 2008. The meeting concluded with the two sides agreeing on the concluding document (below). -------------- -- (SBU) CONCLUDING NOTES FROM MARCH 13-14 MEETING -------------- -- ¶26. (SBU) Begin Concluding Notes: DOE/NNSA-IAEC MEETING ON COOPERATION UNDER THE LETTER OF INTENT 13-14 March 2007 Concluding Notes INTRODUCTION The meeting covered the issues and progress made in seismic cooperation under the LOI between the NNSA and the IAEC during 2007 and work plan for 2008. The list of participants is attached in Annex 1. BACKGROUND ¶1. Two meetings were conducted in 2003 and 2004 (one day each in Vienna). Interesting issues for joint research and work had been marked for further work. A third meeting, following Ambassador Brooks' successful visit to Israel, convened on 13-14 March 2006 in Israel at Soreq NRC. ¶2. The major theme agreed in 2006 was monitoring the Middle East. The ideas can also be applied to monitoring other regions. ¶3. The overall objective of the work program remains the same. The detailed work plan below builds on progress made during 2006, and will continue through the remainder of 2007 and into 2008, and focus on regional seismicity and enhancing joint capabilities to both monitor seismicity and to characterize seismic events. This objective can be met by sharing knowledge, databases, monitoring and analysis methods, and through DOE/NNSA technical support and joint research. ¶4. With this overarching objective in mind, the following work program is agreed for the remainder of 2007 and for 2008 (latter budget contingent). WORK PLAN It was agreed that the nominated points of contact (POC) will finalize the workplan as outlined below. POCs will be identified by April 16, and the workplans finalized by May 15, 2007. POCs will copy the co-chairs of the joint group on all communications. Regional Array Processing (Mount Meiron) and Israel CNF Stations as an Array -------------- -------------- The Meiron array was shown to provide valuable monitoring information for local seismic events (in Israel) and for regional events. The value of the array for monitoring the Middle East can be enhanced by further cooperation. -- Calibration -- Assemble database of regional events -- connection to or getting data from regional stations (Gulf, Caucasus, building a virtual net) -- Calibrate paths -- Improve array performance -- Detectors -- US to provide peer review on detectors Israel is testing -- Optimal sub-array configuration POC: Yochai Ben Horin (Israel),Michael Pasyanos (US) Computing Travel Time -------------- The US provided a 3-D seismic velocity model based on geological model provided by GSI. Preliminary testing was presented to the participants. -- Evaluate the methodology of the model variation -- Integrate additional data as needed -- Integrate receiver functions and surface waves into the model -- Extend model to all of Israel POC: Yochai Ben Horin (Israel),Jerry Sweeney or TBD (US) Data Processing Methods -------------- During the March 2007 meeting, Israel presented four techniques for advanced signal processing, including: -- INSAR -- pattern recognition -- data mining -- entropy of signals The US will consider whether these are areas for future collaboration. POC: Yochai Ben Horin (Israel),Eileen Vergino (US) Exercises -------------- Israel presented the results of the mutual exercise with Slovakia and Israeli NDC analysis of the DPRK event. -- US to provide peer review on both reports by June 1, 2007. POC: Yochai Ben Horin (Israel),Keith Nakanishi (US) The issue of RELEMR as a mechanism for advancing the bilateral objectives was discussed. It was agreed that the POCs will develop a full proposal for the next RELEMR meeting, and examine the possibilities of conducting the meeting in late 2007 or early 2008 (budget dependent). Both sides agree to consider and to identify funding for this proposed activity. POC: Rami Hofstetter (Israel),Keith Nakanishi (US) Acknowledgment -------------- The participants thank the team at the Israeli NDC, including: Guy Tickochinsky, Ziv Shemesh, Noah Levy, and Shmulik Barzilay. Annex 1 -- List of Participants Israel -------------- Itshak Lederman Yochai Ben Horin Gideon Leonard Steve Lewis Rami Hofstetter Anat Sakov Yuri Bregman Phineas Dickstein Amir Averbuch Tsviki Hirsch SIPDIS Gidi Baer Yefim Gitterman Vladimir Pinsky Ronen Shaul United States -------------- Anne Phillips Keith Nakanishi Michael Keays Michael Pasyanos Eileen Vergino End Concluding Notes. ¶27. (U) This cable was cleared by the head of the U.S. team, Anne Phillips, of the USDOE. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CRETZ